ABNB
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +48.1% · range 111.54–184.98
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| OCF / assets | 20.9% |
|---|---|
| FCF / revenue | 38.0% |
| Gross margin | 82.9% |
| ROIC | 29.7% |
| Forward P/E | 29.4 |
This company does not report capital expenditure in the standard filing tag, so free cash flow cannot be derived and FCF/assets is not shown — common for asset managers, REITs, insurers and utilities. OCF/assets is shown instead, and it is the other measure Brown Bear's testing found to survive. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 4.7pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +43.4% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +48.1% |
| Forward P/E compression | +30.3% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 4.27 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 6.12 |
| Trailing P/E | 42.18 |
| Forward P/E | 29.41 |
Revisions
Stable (+1.8%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Price and forward earnings growth are broadly in step; no strong valuation lean either way.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-0.53–6.63, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2.68bn | +17.9% | 160.00m | 0.26 | 0.26 | -11.9% | 2026-05-07 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 2.78bn | +12.0% | 341.00m | 0.55 | 0.56 | -16.4% | 2026-02-12 |
| 2025-09-30 | 4.09bn | +9.7% | 1.37bn | 2.21 | 2.21 | -7.5% | 2025-11-06 |
| 2025-06-30 | 3.10bn | +12.7% | 642.00m | 1.03 | — | — | 2025-08-06 |
| 2025-03-31 | 2.27bn | +6.1% | 154.00m | 0.24 | — | — | 2025-05-01 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 2.48bn | +11.8% | 461.00m | 0.71 | — | — | 2025-02-13 |
| 2024-09-30 | 3.73bn | +9.9% | 1.37bn | 2.13 | — | — | 2024-11-07 |
| 2024-06-30 | 2.75bn | +10.6% | 555.00m | 0.86 | — | — | 2024-08-06 |
| 2024-03-31 | 2.14bn | — | 264.00m | 0.40 | — | — | 2024-05-08 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 2.22bn | — | -349.00m | -0.53 | — | — | 2024-02-16 |
| 2023-09-30 | 3.40bn | — | 4.37bn | 6.63 | — | — | 2023-11-01 |
| 2023-06-30 | 2.48bn | — | 650.00m | 0.98 | — | — | 2023-08-03 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±3.0% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.8% — filings move it 1.7× as much |
| Direction | 3 up, 8 down over 11 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | +17.9% | +1.2% | -5.2% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | +9.7% | -1.3% | -1.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-06 | +12.7% | -7.6% | +0.8% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-01 | +6.1% | +2.7% | -1.1% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-11-07 | +9.9% | -4.5% | +0.9% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2024-08-06 | +10.6% | -9.8% | -3.2% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-05-08 | +17.8% | -8.0% | -2.9% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-11-01 | +17.8% | -2.4% | +10.3% |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-08-03 | +18.1% | -3.0% | -6.3% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-05-09 | +20.5% | -9.9% | -1.9% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-11-03 | +28.9% | +1.8% | -3.7% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 608.0M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | -3.8% |
| Change over 3 years | -9.3% |
| Public float | $56.20bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
History before 2021-03-31 is not shown. The share count jumps at that date by a ratio no ordinary issuance produces — a split whose factor is not in Brown Bear's split store — so earlier figures are on a different basis and cannot be compared with today's.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 163.39 — 181.00 |
| Protective stop | 158.28 (Atr, 8.1% risk) |
| Support | 138.07 (2 touches, 30.4% away) |
| Resistance | — (— away) |
Takeaway The shares are about 30.4% above 138.07, a price buyers have stepped in at before. There is no ceiling to point to, because the stock is trading where it has not traded before and nobody has sold it at these levels. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 8.1% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 5/14/29 (55% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL (fresh up, 2d ago) |
| Cloud thickness | 100% percentile (thick — substantial structure) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 161.42 to 172.60. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +22.9% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +32.9% |
| 126 days | +49.7% |
| 252 days | +52.2% |
| Below 252d high | 2.6% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway Positive Kalman trend with moderate extension; constructive for momentum but watch entry risk.
Volatility
| State | Expanding |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 38.3% of price |
| Recent tightest | 11.0% (9 sessions ago, narrower than 54.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 3.47× |
| Band | 124.91 — 184.16 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 38% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Deteriorating
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Insider selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 60 |
| Shares sold | 2,883,627 |
| Value sold | $453.0m |
| Latest sell | 2026-08-07 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Sold Chesky BrianCEO and Chairman | 1,410 | $232,886 |
| 2026-08-07 | Sold Chesky BrianCEO and Chairman | 900 | $149,612 |
| 2026-08-07 | Sold Chesky BrianCEO and Chairman | 600 | $100,594 |
| 2026-08-07 | Sold Chesky BrianCEO and Chairman | 365 | $61,428 |
| 2026-08-07 | Sold Chesky BrianCEO and Chairman | 1,102 | $186,352 |
| 2026-08-07 | Sold Chesky BrianCEO and Chairman | 138 | $23,575 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Strong |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway More shares change hands on the days this stock rises than on the days it falls. That is what you would expect to see if the rise is being driven by real buying rather than drifting up on a thin market.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
ABNB: no binary-event flag. Near IV 31%, far IV 30% (ratio 1.01), implied move 3.9%.
| Implied volatility | 31% near (9d) · 30% far (65d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.01× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 69% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.44× |
| Implied move | ±3.9% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.42× |
| Skew | Call Skew (0.87×) |
| Call wall | 200.00 (+11.1% away) |
| Put wall | 120.00 (-33.4% away) |
| Gamma pin | 155.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 3.9% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Leadership Cooling
Rotation health 100.0/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.
| Rotation health | 100.0 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 75.9 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Leading | 131.2 | 118.0 |
| Stock vs SPY | Leading | 129.8 | 120.0 |
| Sector vs SPY | Leading | 112.5 | 121.1 |
Direction of travel: South-East / trend strong but momentum cooling
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 4/9 (+5.0)
- Altman Z-score 8.75 (+10.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 82.9% (+22.0)
- ROIC quality: 29.7% (+21.2)
- FCF margin quality: 38.0% (+20.0)
- ROIC improving by 6.1 pts (+5.0)
- FCF margin improving by -2.7 pts (+-3.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.096) (+5.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.09 -> -0.10) (+5.0)
- Relative Strength 21.4% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+10.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (3.71) (+8.0)
- Track 1: volume confirmation 1.16x average (+1.0)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.15 (+9.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 54.7 (+8.0)
- Track 1: ADX 36.0 and rising (+8.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.84 (+4.4)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 7.8% (+5.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 3.33 (+10.0)
- Track 1: positive MACD regime (+3.0)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+8.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: VPT strength 1.55 (+8.0)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 20.3% (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 5.3% (+3.0)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.93 (+0.5)
- Regime convergence: ICHIMOKU_CLOUD_REVERSAL confidence 66.7/100 (EMERGING) (+13.3)
Negative signals
- Track 1: RSI deterioration/extension 85.2, 5-day change +27.8
- Chase risk 85.3/100 (Blowoff Distribution Risk): RSI 85.2, EMA20 13.0%, EMA50 20.3%, BB 0.93, distribution 10.0/100
- Gross margin improving by -0.2 pts (+-3.0)
- Chase risk 85.3/100 | Extension score 14.7/100 | Blowoff Distribution Risk