ACHR
Structural scoring is not meaningful for this business
Structural scoring uses gross margin, free cash flow and Altman Z — measures built for operating companies. For banks, insurers and asset managers they produce artifacts, because the cash-flow statement is dominated by lending and deposit flows rather than operations. Treat the structural and composite figures below as not comparable with other sectors, in either direction.
- Reported free cash flow is far outside the range an operating business can show, indicating balance-sheet rather than operating flows
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -36.4% · range 4.44–13.64
Score trends appear once the scores have been recorded on more than one trading day.
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | -20.8% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | -17.6% |
| FCF / revenue | -144,300.0% |
| Gross margin | 15.8% |
| ROIC | -30.9% |
| Forward P/E | -7.3 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Trailing EPS is negative (-1.07) and forward EPS is not positive, so a growth percentage does not exist
Confidence 25.0/100
Drivers
| Trailing price return (1y) | -36.4% |
|---|
Figures
| Trailing EPS | -1.07 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | -0.81 |
| Forward P/E | -7.31 |
Takeaway Low data confidence (limited analyst coverage) — treat this section as informational only.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-0.28–-0.17, own scale) Derived Q4
2 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 1.60m | — | -217.70m | -0.28 | 2026-05-11 |
| 2025-03-31 | 0 | — | -93.40m | -0.17 | 2026-05-11 |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 5.59 — 5.93 |
| Protective stop | 4.50 (Atr, 21.9% risk) |
| Support | 5.58 (3 touches, 5.7% away) |
| Resistance | 6.51 (10.3% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the floor than the ceiling: about 5.7% above 5.58, a price buyers have stepped in at before, and 10.3% below 6.51, where sellers have turned up before. That floor has held 3 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 21.9% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price INSIDE the cloud | periods 4/13/26 (50% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud thickness | 47% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price INSIDE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading inside its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 5.88 to 6.08. Inside the band those averages disagree with each other, so the indicator is not saying much either way. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +22.4% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -9.9% |
| 126 days | -16.9% |
| 252 days | -37.0% |
| Below 252d high | 56.7% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Rising strongly |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway Price is near a rising Kalman fair trend, consistent with a healthy trend setup.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 47.0% of price |
| Recent tightest | 47.0% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 9.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 4.51 — 7.28 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 47% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger EMA20 reclaim +0.4% gap is improving · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 Relative momentum rank back above 0.45 repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 MACD bullish crossover secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 MACD histogram above zero 0.05 gap is deteriorating · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Insider selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 5 |
| Shares sold | 226,845 |
| Value sold | $1.4m |
| Latest sell | 2026-08-20 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Sold Lentell EricChief Strategy Officer | 100,000 | $631,000 |
| 2026-08-17 | Sold Lyon BenjaminPresident, Aircraft OEM | 50,188 | $321,846 |
| 2026-08-17 | Sold Rungta HarshChief Accounting Officer | 13,880 | $89,010 |
| 2026-08-17 | Sold Gupta PriyaInterim CFO | 10,015 | $64,224 |
| 2026-08-17 | Sold Lentell EricChief Legal & Strategy Officer | 52,762 | $338,352 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
ACHR: no binary-event flag. Near IV 68%, far IV 78% (ratio 0.88), implied move 8.1%.
| Implied volatility | 68% near (8d) · 78% far (141d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.88× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 91% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.75× |
| Implied move | ±8.1% by 2026-09-04 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.34× |
| Skew | Call Skew (0.89×) |
| Call wall | 7.00 (+17.9% away) |
| Put wall | 5.00 (-15.8% away) |
| Gamma pin | 7.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 8.1% in either direction by 2026-09-04.
Chain as at 2026-08-27. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Mixed Rotation Phase
Rotation health 31.9/100; Negative Rotation.
| Rotation health | 31.9 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 58.2 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 108.0 | 77.1 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 106.7 | 78.6 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 81.0 | 94.8 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Altman Z-score 7.39 (+6.0)
- Insider conviction score (+3.0)
- ROIC improving by 23.9 pts (+3.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.075) (+2.0)
- Relative Strength 23.4% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+9.5)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+9.5)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.37 (+30.2)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 20.1 (+11.4)
- Track 2: ADX 58.6 and rising (+17.2)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 1.4% (+2.1)
- Track 2: VPT strength 0.04 (+1.0)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 4.2% (+2.0)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 5.6% (+3.5)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.50 (+3.8)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak MACD line/signal structure (-7.0)
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.51x average)
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.03)
- Track 2: price below EMA20 by 0.4%
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 57.5, 5-day change -11.8
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 14.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.