AES
Some scores are at the bottom of their range
This score sits at the bottom of the 0–100 range. The underlying calculation was negative, so the displayed value is a floor, not a measurement of zero.
- Structural Score: displayed 0, underlying value -2.0
- Tactical Score: displayed 0, underlying value -35.2
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +13.9% · range 12.51–17.28
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | -3.1% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 8.3% |
| FCF / revenue | 35.2% |
| Gross margin | 20.3% |
| ROIC | 3.4% |
| Forward P/E | 6.2 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 24.9pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | -10.9% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +13.9% |
| Forward P/E compression | -12.3% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 2.67 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 2.38 |
| Trailing P/E | 5.51 |
| Forward P/E | 6.19 |
Revisions
Stable (-0.1%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Price has moved further than forward earnings growth currently justifies — worth weighing against the rest of the entry case.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-0.13–0.89, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 3.18bn | +8.7% | 487.00m | 0.68 | 0.67 | +80.3% | 2026-05-05 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 3.10bn | — | 320.00m | 0.45 | — | — | 2026-03-02 |
| 2025-09-30 | 3.35bn | +1.9% | 639.00m | 0.89 | 0.75 | -1.8% | 2025-11-04 |
| 2025-06-30 | 2.85bn | -3.0% | -95.00m | -0.13 | 0.51 | +27.7% | 2025-08-01 |
| 2025-03-31 | 2.93bn | -5.2% | 46.00m | 0.06 | — | — | 2025-05-01 |
| 2024-09-30 | 3.29bn | -4.2% | 502.00m | 0.70 | — | — | 2024-10-31 |
| 2024-06-30 | 2.94bn | -2.8% | 185.00m | 0.26 | — | — | 2024-08-01 |
| 2024-03-31 | 3.08bn | -4.8% | 432.00m | 0.61 | — | — | 2024-05-02 |
| 2023-09-30 | 3.43bn | -5.3% | 231.00m | 0.32 | — | — | 2023-11-02 |
| 2023-06-30 | 3.03bn | — | -39.00m | -0.06 | — | — | 2023-08-03 |
| 2023-03-31 | 3.24bn | — | 151.00m | 0.21 | — | — | 2023-05-04 |
| 2022-09-30 | 3.63bn | — | 421.00m | 0.59 | — | — | 2022-11-04 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±2.8% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.7% — filings move it 1.6× as much |
| Direction | 8 up, 3 down over 11 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | +8.7% | +0.4% | -0.5% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-04 | +1.9% | +4.4% | -3.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-01 | -3.0% | +2.3% | -1.6% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-01 | -5.2% | +3.6% | -4.6% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-10-31 | -4.2% | -9.5% | -17.3% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2024-08-01 | -2.8% | -2.8% | -5.8% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-05-02 | -4.8% | +2.8% | +8.0% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-11-02 | -5.3% | +13.1% | +2.0% |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-08-03 | -1.7% | -6.7% | -9.9% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-05-04 | +13.6% | +1.0% | -14.9% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-11-04 | +19.5% | +2.3% | +1.4% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Flat — little net change |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 715.0M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | +0.3% |
| Change over 3 years | +0.4% |
| Public float | $7.49bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 14.57 — 14.86 |
| Protective stop | 14.60 (Atr, 0.8% risk) |
| Support | 14.55 (9 touches, 1.1% away) |
| Resistance | 14.78 (0.5% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 0.5% below 14.78, where sellers have turned up before, and 1.1% above 14.55, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 9 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 0.8% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price INSIDE the cloud | periods 9/25/50 (97% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud thickness | 1% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price INSIDE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading inside its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 14.71 to 14.72. Inside the band those averages disagree with each other, so the indicator is not saying much either way. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | -0.6% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +2.0% |
| 126 days | -9.5% |
| 252 days | +14.9% |
| Below 252d high | 14.9% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway The share price is close to the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is going sideways. The gap between the two has been closing. Neither is stretched far enough to stand out.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 1.7% of price |
| Recent tightest | 1.5% (5 sessions ago, narrower than 82.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.13× |
| Band | 14.64 — 14.90 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 2% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 82% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger MACD repair streak continuation 5 improving bars MACD histogram has improved for 5 consecutive sessions · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 MACD bullish crossover repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 EMA20 reclaim +0.2% gap is improving · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 MACD histogram above zero 0.01 gap is improving · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 Relative momentum rank above 0.65 +0.11 rank relative momentum leadership is not yet strong enough for the next action tier · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Below its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.
Options Positioning
Binary-event risk flagged
AES: binary-event risk suspected -- Term structure inverted (near 17% IV vs far 7% IV, ratio 2.25); Implied move 2.1% is 2.26x the ATR-expected 0.9% over 9d. Options market is pricing a discrete catalyst; technical breakout signals are unreliable until it resolves.
| Implied volatility | 17% near (9d) · 7% far (100d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 2.25× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 5% |
| Implied vs historical | 3.49× — Options are priced well above what the stock has actually done |
| Implied move | ±2.1% by 2026-08-21 — Large relative to this stock's normal daily range |
| Implied move vs ATR | 2.26× |
| Skew | Put Skew (1.95×) |
| Call wall | 30.00 (+103.9% away) |
| Put wall | 11.00 (-25.2% away) |
| Gamma pin | 11.00 |
- Term structure inverted (near 17% IV vs far 7% IV, ratio 2.25)
- Implied move 2.1% is 2.26x the ATR-expected 0.9% over 9d
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 2.1% in either direction by 2026-08-21. The overall shape suggests they expect a one-off result that lands either well or badly, rather than a gradual drift.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Mixed Rotation Phase
Rotation health 31.1/100; Negative Rotation.
| Rotation health | 31.1 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 80.7 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 117.5 | 86.4 |
| Stock vs SPY | Lagging | 80.7 | 87.3 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 79.5 | 94.2 |
Direction of travel: South / momentum fading
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 4/9 (+3.0)
- FCF margin quality: 35.2% (+6.0)
- FCF margin improving by 12.8 pts (+2.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.066) (+2.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.02 -> -0.07) (+2.0)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+10.0)
- Track 2: ADX 46.3 and falling (+10.0)
- Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.54 (+1.5)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 0.0% (+0.1)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.27 (+2.1)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak MACD line/signal structure (-12.0)
- Track 2: MACD slope deteriorating (-5.0)
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.50x average)
- Track 2: bearish DI spread (-12.8)
- Track 2: Bearish MACD divergence
- Track 2: price below EMA20 by 0.2%
- Track 2: EMA20 slope deteriorating -0.1%
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 34.2, 5-day change -4.9
- Track 2: weak VPT confirmation (-0.01)
- Below-average Altman Z-score (1.11)
- ROIC improving by -2.7 pts (+-2.0)
- Track 2 structural exemption: Z-Score 1.11 below the 1.8 insolvency-risk floor and structural score 0.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.