AKAM
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +70.6% · range 71.97–161.14
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 8.8% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 13.2% |
| FCF / revenue | 36.1% |
| Gross margin | 57.5% |
| ROIC | 6.0% |
| Forward P/E | 17.1 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +88.1pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +158.7% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +70.6% |
| Forward P/E compression | +61.3% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 2.77 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 7.17 |
| Trailing P/E | 44.32 |
| Forward P/E | 17.14 |
Revisions
Stable (-0.8%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (0.11–0.52, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 18. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-31 | 668.72m | +9.8% | 53.71m | 0.31 | 2018-05-09 |
| 2017-12-31 (derived) | 663.45m | +7.7% | 19.11m | 0.11 | 2018-03-01 |
| 2017-09-30 | 621.40m | +6.4% | 60.51m | 0.35 | 2017-11-08 |
| 2017-06-30 | 608.91m | +6.4% | 57.77m | 0.33 | 2017-08-08 |
| 2017-03-31 | 609.24m | +7.3% | 80.93m | 0.46 | 2017-05-09 |
| 2016-12-31 (derived) | 616.12m | +6.4% | 91.64m | 0.52 | 2017-02-28 |
| 2016-09-30 | 584.07m | +6.0% | 76.00m | 0.43 | 2016-11-08 |
| 2016-06-30 | 572.13m | +5.8% | 73.64m | 0.42 | 2016-08-08 |
| 2016-03-31 | 567.73m | — | 74.86m | 0.42 | 2016-05-09 |
| 2015-12-31 (derived) | 579.16m | — | 88.42m | 0.49 | 2016-02-29 |
| 2015-09-30 | 551.03m | — | 88.04m | 0.49 | 2015-11-09 |
| 2015-06-30 | 540.72m | — | 67.20m | 0.37 | 2015-08-10 |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 150.0M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | -4.7% |
| Change over 3 years | -8.3% |
| Public float | $11.18bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 103.74 — 123.39 |
| Protective stop | 105.13 (Structure, 7.4% risk) |
| Support | 108.30 (5 touches, 13.4% away) |
| Resistance | 127.72 (4.0% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 4.0% below 127.72, where sellers have turned up before, and 13.4% above 108.30, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 5 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 7.4% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 6/19/37 (72% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud event | Fresh up breakout 0d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 19% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price INSIDE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 117.28 to 119.09. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | -2.6% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -17.9% |
| 126 days | +30.1% |
| 252 days | +73.9% |
| Below 252d high | 23.8% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 16.6% of price |
| Recent tightest | 16.3% (1 sessions ago, narrower than 93.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.02× |
| Band | 107.94 — 127.53 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 17% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 93% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Deteriorating
- Trigger 2 Relative strength stabilisation state change relative momentum rank supports RS stabilisation · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 MACD histogram acceleration turns positive repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 +DI back above -DI secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Improving rapidly
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Insider selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 3 |
| Shares sold | 5,643 |
| Value sold | $736.2k |
| Latest sell | 2026-07-15 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Sold Joseph Paul CEVP - Global Sales | 3,100 | $392,987 |
| 2026-06-18 | Sold Blumofe RobertChief Technology Officer | 243 | $31,447 |
| 2026-06-10 | Sold Salem-Jackson KimEVP, Chief Marketing Officer | 2,300 | $311,811 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Moderate |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway More shares change hands on the days this stock rises than on the days it falls. That is what you would expect to see if the rise is being driven by real buying rather than drifting up on a thin market.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
AKAM: no binary-event flag. Near IV 49%, far IV 57% (ratio 0.86), implied move 6.2%.
| Implied volatility | 49% near (9d) · 57% far (100d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.86× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 58% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.85× |
| Implied move | ±6.2% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.40× |
| Skew | Flat (0.97×) |
| Call wall | 135.00 (+9.9% away) |
| Put wall | 75.00 (-38.9% away) |
| Gamma pin | 135.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 6.2% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Repair Attempt
Rotation health 63.4/100; Positive Rotation.
| Rotation health | 63.4 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 59.3 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Lagging | 98.7 | 87.8 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 107.2 | 89.3 |
| Sector vs SPY | Leading | 113.6 | 115.9 |
Direction of travel: North-West / early recovery
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+10.0)
- Altman Z-score 4.76 (+8.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 57.5% (+13.7)
- ROIC quality: 6.0% (+0.9)
- FCF margin quality: 36.1% (+20.0)
- FCF margin improving by -2.0 pts (+-3.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.093) (+5.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (0.78) (+6.0)
- Track 1: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.13 (+9.0)
- Track 1: ADX 27.9 and rising (+5.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.92 (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 3.7% (+5.1)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+8.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+3.0)
- Track 1: RSI recovery 55.1, 5-day change +0.9 (+0.5)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.19 (+3.8)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 1.5% (+0.9)
- Track 1: EMA50 support proximity 1.5% (+3.8)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.76 (+1.9)
Negative signals
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 1: bearish DI spread (-7.1)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope deteriorating -0.5%
- Track 1: EMA50 slope deteriorating -1.2%
- Gross margin improving by -1.9 pts (+-3.0)
- ROIC improving by -1.4 pts (+-5.0)
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.