AMAT
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +190.9% · range 156.25–723.00
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 15.7% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 21.9% |
| FCF / revenue | 28.1% |
| Gross margin | 49.0% |
| ROIC | 33.7% |
| Forward P/E | 31.8 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 135.0pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +55.9% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +190.9% |
| Forward P/E compression | +35.8% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 11.07 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 17.25 |
| Trailing P/E | 49.52 |
| Forward P/E | 31.77 |
Revisions
Stable (+2.1%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Price has moved further than forward earnings growth currently justifies — worth weighing against the rest of the entry case.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (1.45–3.51, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q2 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 7.91bn | +11.4% | 2.81bn | 3.51 | 2026-05-21 |
| 2026-01-25 | 7.01bn | -2.1% | 2.03bn | 2.54 | 2026-02-19 |
| 2025-10-26 (derived) | 6.80bn | -3.5% | 1.90bn | 2.35 | 2025-12-12 |
| 2025-07-27 | 7.30bn | +7.7% | 1.78bn | 2.22 | 2025-08-21 |
| 2025-04-27 | 7.10bn | +6.8% | 2.14bn | 2.63 | 2025-05-22 |
| 2025-01-26 | 7.17bn | +6.8% | 1.19bn | 1.45 | 2025-02-20 |
| 2024-10-27 (derived) | 7.04bn | +4.8% | 1.73bn | 2.08 | 2024-12-13 |
| 2024-07-28 | 6.78bn | +5.5% | 1.71bn | 2.05 | 2024-08-22 |
| 2024-04-28 | 6.65bn | — | 1.72bn | 2.06 | 2024-05-23 |
| 2024-01-28 | 6.71bn | — | 2.02bn | 2.41 | 2024-02-27 |
| 2023-10-29 (derived) | 6.72bn | — | 2.00bn | 2.37 | 2023-12-15 |
| 2023-07-30 | 6.42bn | — | 1.56bn | 1.85 | 2023-08-24 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±2.1% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±2.2% — filings move it 0.9× as much |
| Direction | 6 up, 6 down over 12 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 2026-05-21 | +11.4% | +1.4% | +36.9% |
| 2026-01-25 | 2026-02-19 | -2.1% | +1.8% | +0.8% |
| 2025-07-27 | 2025-08-21 | +7.7% | +1.2% | +19.8% |
| 2025-04-27 | 2025-05-22 | +6.8% | -2.6% | +9.3% |
| 2025-01-26 | 2025-02-20 | +6.8% | -1.0% | -5.8% |
| 2024-07-28 | 2024-08-22 | +5.5% | -2.9% | -5.9% |
| 2024-04-28 | 2024-05-23 | +0.2% | +1.3% | +2.8% |
| 2024-01-28 | 2024-02-27 | -0.5% | -3.0% | +1.6% |
| 2023-07-30 | 2023-08-24 | -1.5% | -2.5% | -4.0% |
| 2023-04-30 | 2023-05-26 | +6.2% | +4.7% | +1.2% |
| 2023-01-29 | 2023-02-23 | +7.5% | +0.8% | +7.2% |
| 2022-07-31 | 2022-08-25 | +5.2% | -2.6% | -6.3% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 799.0M as at 2026-04-26 |
| Change over 1 year | -1.6% |
| Change over 3 years | -5.7% |
| Public float | $121.32bn as at 2025-04-27 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | At Support Zone |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 507.01 — 522.38 |
| Protective stop | 444.66 (Atr, 13.6% risk) |
| Support | 512.13 (2 touches, 7.0% away) |
| Resistance | 554.70 (1.2% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 1.2% below 554.70, where sellers have turned up before, and 7.0% above 512.13, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 13.6% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price INSIDE the cloud | periods 6/17/34 (65% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud thickness | 92% percentile (thick — substantial structure) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading inside its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 538.72 to 588.00. Inside the band those averages disagree with each other, so the indicator is not saying much either way. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | -8.0% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +27.1% |
| 126 days | +66.6% |
| 252 days | +197.3% |
| Below 252d high | 24.2% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 23.2% of price |
| Recent tightest | 23.2% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 57.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 465.75 — 587.71 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 23% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
AMAT: no binary-event flag. Near IV 82%, far IV 65% (ratio 1.25), implied move 10.3%.
| Implied volatility | 82% near (9d) · 65% far (65d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.25× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 87% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.94× |
| Implied move | ±10.3% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.67× |
| Skew | Flat (0.94×) |
| Call wall | 700.00 (+27.7% away) |
| Put wall | 400.00 (-27.0% away) |
| Gamma pin | 400.00 |
- Term structure inverted (near 82% IV vs far 65% IV, ratio 1.25)
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 10.3% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Leadership Cooling
Rotation health 75.5/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.
| Rotation health | 75.5 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 57.6 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Improving | 90.7 | 111.3 |
| Stock vs SPY | Improving | 93.6 | 109.3 |
| Sector vs SPY | Leading | 113.6 | 115.9 |
Direction of travel: South-East / trend strong but momentum cooling
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+10.0)
- Altman Z-score 19.96 (+10.0)
- Insider conviction score (+3.0)
- Gross margin quality: 49.0% (+10.6)
- ROIC quality: 33.7% (+24.6)
- FCF margin quality: 28.1% (+18.7)
- FCF margin improving by -3.9 pts (+-3.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.026) (+2.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (3.24) (+8.0)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.98 (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 2.5% (+6.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 4.31 (+10.0)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+10.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: RSI recovery 47.6, 5-day change +1.5 (+1.2)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.06 (+1.3)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 3.5% (+2.2)
- Track 1: EMA50 support proximity 3.5% (+2.0)
- Track 1: constructive pullback zone (+15.0)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.68 (+2.6)
- Regime convergence: SUPPORT_RESISTANCE_BOUNCE confidence 60.0/100 (EMERGING) (+12.0)
Negative signals
- Underperforming sector over 20 days
- Track 1: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.04)
- Track 1: bearish DI spread (-5.2)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope deteriorating -0.2%
- Track 1: EMA50 slope deteriorating -0.1%
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.