APA
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +94.6% · range 20.24–44.39
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| OCF / assets | 25.6% |
|---|---|
| FCF / revenue | 51.0% |
| Gross margin | 78.3% |
| ROIC | 20.2% |
| Forward P/E | 9.5 |
This company does not report capital expenditure in the standard filing tag, so free cash flow cannot be derived and FCF/assets is not shown — common for asset managers, REITs, insurers and utilities. OCF/assets is shown instead, and it is the other measure Brown Bear's testing found to survive. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 105.9pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | -11.4% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +94.6% |
| Forward P/E compression | -12.6% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 4.75 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 4.21 |
| Trailing P/E | 8.44 |
| Forward P/E | 9.50 |
Revisions
Stable (+2.6%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Price has moved further than forward earnings growth currently justifies — worth weighing against the rest of the entry case.
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Growing — shares issued |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 354.0M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | +17.2% |
| Change over 3 years | -6.3% |
| Public float | $6.56bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 39.40 — 40.40 |
| Protective stop | 36.58 (Atr, 8.3% risk) |
| Support | 35.42 (4 touches, 12.9% away) |
| Resistance | 41.41 (3.5% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 3.5% below 41.41, where sellers have turned up before, and 12.9% above 35.42, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 4 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 8.3% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 7/21/42 (80% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL (fresh up cross, 0d ago) | cloud twist BULL (fresh up, 2d ago) |
| Cloud event | Fresh up breakout 5d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 38% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 36.51 to 37.09. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +16.7% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +8.2% |
| 126 days | +41.5% |
| 252 days | +95.7% |
| Below 252d high | 9.9% |
Trend context
| Position | Above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway Positive Kalman trend with moderate extension; constructive for momentum but watch entry risk.
Volatility
| State | Expanded out of a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 21.6% of price |
| Recent tightest | 11.7% (4 sessions ago, narrower than 95.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.84× |
| Band | 32.90 — 40.87 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 22% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 95% of the time. It has started moving again since, swinging about 1.8 times as widely as during that quiet spell. A stock that has been quiet tends to make its next move look big by comparison, simply because the recent bar was low.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
APA: no binary-event flag. Near IV 39%, far IV 41% (ratio 0.95), implied move 4.6%.
| Implied volatility | 39% near (8d) · 41% far (64d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.95× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 51% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.76× |
| Implied move | ±4.6% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.49× |
| Skew | Call Skew (0.54×) |
| Put wall | 17.50 (-56.2% away) |
| Gamma pin | 17.50 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 4.6% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-13. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Repair Attempt
Rotation health 56.7/100; Mixed Rotation.
| Rotation health | 56.7 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 61.2 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 122.1 | 79.4 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 115.2 | 92.8 |
| Sector vs SPY | Weakening | 101.6 | 91.9 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 6/9 (+15.0)
- Altman Z-score 2.72 (+3.0)
- Gross margin quality: 78.3% (+21.4)
- ROIC quality: 20.2% (+13.0)
- FCF margin quality: 51.0% (+20.0)
- Gross margin improving by 34.1 pts (+5.0)
- ROIC improving by 8.6 pts (+5.0)
- FCF margin improving by 13.8 pts (+5.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.175) (+8.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.15 -> -0.18) (+5.0)
- Relative Strength 7.7% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+10.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (0.47) (+4.0)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.17 (+9.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 12.5 (+3.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.94 (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 7.3% (+2.2)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 4.8% (+5.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 0.40 (+4.0)
- Track 1: positive MACD regime (+3.0)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+8.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+3.0)
- Track 1: RSI recovery 63.0, 5-day change +7.3 (+2.4)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.14 (+2.8)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 10.1% (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 2.6% (+3.0)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.89 (+0.9)
- Regime convergence: MOMENTUM_BREAKOUT_CONTINUATION confidence 89.9/100 (EMERGING) (+18.0)
Negative signals
- Track 1: weak volume confirmation (0.70x average)
- Chase risk 45.4/100 (Elevated Chase Risk): RSI 63.0, EMA20 7.3%, EMA50 10.1%, BB 0.89, distribution 9.5/100
- Chase risk 45.4/100 | Extension score 54.6/100 | Elevated Chase Risk