ASTS
Structural scoring is not meaningful for this business
Structural scoring uses gross margin, free cash flow and Altman Z — measures built for operating companies. For banks, insurers and asset managers they produce artifacts, because the cash-flow statement is dominated by lending and deposit flows rather than operations. Treat the structural and composite figures below as not comparable with other sectors, in either direction.
- Reported free cash flow is far outside the range an operating business can show, indicating balance-sheet rather than operating flows
Some scores are at the bottom of their range
This score sits at the bottom of the 0–100 range. The underlying calculation was negative, so the displayed value is a floor, not a measurement of zero.
- Tactical Score: displayed 0, underlying value -50.0
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +18.7% · range 36.91–133.09
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | -22.7% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | -1.4% |
| FCF / revenue | -100.8% |
| Gross margin | 38.9% |
| ROIC | -8.7% |
| Forward P/E | -49.4 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Trailing EPS is negative (-2.08) and forward EPS is not positive, so a growth percentage does not exist
Confidence 35.0/100
Drivers
| Trailing price return (1y) | +18.7% |
|---|
Figures
| Trailing EPS | -2.08 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | -1.21 |
| Forward P/E | -49.40 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.0%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Low data confidence (limited analyst coverage) — treat this section as informational only.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-1.10–0.08, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q3 24. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | 1.10m | — | -171.95m | -1.10 | 2024-11-14 |
| 2024-06-30 | 900.00k | — | -72.55m | -0.51 | 2024-08-14 |
| 2024-03-31 | 500.00k | -79.1% | -19.73m | — | 2024-05-15 |
| 2023-03-31 | 2.39m | +0.0% | -16.32m | — | 2023-05-15 |
| 2022-09-30 | 4.17m | +70.1% | -9.77m | -0.18 | 2022-11-14 |
| 2022-06-30 | 7.26m | +162.0% | -2.92m | -0.06 | 2022-08-16 |
| 2022-03-31 | 2.39m | +151.7% | -10.72m | — | 2022-05-16 |
| 2021-09-30 | 2.45m | +17.2% | 4.12m | 0.08 | 2021-11-15 |
| 2021-06-30 | 2.77m | +589.8% | — | — | 2021-08-16 |
| 2021-03-31 | 951.00k | — | 597.05k | — | 2022-05-16 |
| 2020-09-30 | 2.09m | — | -55.05k | — | 2021-11-15 |
| 2020-06-30 | 402.00k | — | -51.98k | — | 2021-08-16 |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 53.58 — 60.18 |
| Protective stop | 51.11 (Structure, 10.1% risk) |
| Support | 53.07 (2 touches, 12.8% away) |
| Resistance | 74.71 (24.8% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the floor than the ceiling: about 12.8% above 53.07, a price buyers have stepped in at before, and 24.8% below 74.71, where sellers have turned up before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 10.1% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price BELOW the cloud | periods 9/26/52 (99% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud event | Fresh down breakout 6d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 55% percentile |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price BELOW the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading below its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 68.80 to 75.27. Being below it means the medium-term picture is pointing downwards, and that band is the first hurdle it would have to climb back through. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +5.9% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -53.8% |
| 126 days | -27.3% |
| 252 days | +19.7% |
| Below 252d high | 55.0% |
Trend context
| Position | Above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway The share price is above the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is climbing. The gap between the two has been closing. Neither is stretched far enough to stand out.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 28.2% of price |
| Recent tightest | 28.2% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 80.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 57.51 — 76.37 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 28% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 80% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Relative momentum rank above 0.65 +0.02 rank relative momentum leadership is not yet strong enough for the next action tier · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 RSI recovery above 50 repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Deteriorating rapidly
- Trigger 3 MACD bullish crossover secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Deteriorating
- Trigger 4 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 Relative strength stabilisation state change relative momentum rank supports RS stabilisation · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Below its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
ASTS: no binary-event flag. Near IV 72%, far IV 81% (ratio 0.88), implied move 8.5%.
| Implied volatility | 72% near (8d) · 81% far (85d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.88× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 78% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.92× |
| Implied move | ±8.5% by 2026-09-04 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.49× |
| Skew | Call Skew (0.88×) |
| Call wall | 70.00 (+14.8% away) |
| Put wall | 60.00 (-1.6% away) |
| Gamma pin | 70.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 8.5% in either direction by 2026-09-04.
Chain as at 2026-08-27. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Mixed Rotation Phase
Rotation health 55.0/100; Mixed Rotation.
| Rotation health | 55.0 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 79.5 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 104.8 | 81.0 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 106.2 | 81.5 |
| Sector vs SPY | Leading | 128.0 | 120.4 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Altman Z-score 5.41 (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 38.9% (+1.9)
- ROIC improving by 49.0 pts (+3.0)
- FCF margin improving by 2754.4 pts (+2.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.054) (+2.0)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.53 (+30.2)
- Track 2: ADX 37.5 and falling (+7.6)
- Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.63 (+4.0)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.13 (+1.0)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak MACD histogram (-0.60)
- Track 2: weak MACD line/signal structure (-7.0)
- Track 2: negative MACD regime (-3.7)
- Track 2: MACD slope deteriorating (-2.3)
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.64x average)
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 2: bearish DI spread (-11.8)
- Track 2: price below EMA20 by 9.4%
- Track 2: EMA20 slope deteriorating -2.7%
- Track 2: MACD histogram deteriorating (-1.40)
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 39.4, 5-day change -21.6
- Track 2: weak VPT confirmation (-0.00)
- Track 2: price below EMA50 by 14.9%
- Track 2: EMA50 slope deteriorating -2.9%
- Gross margin improving by -61.1 pts (+-0.9)
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 13.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.