AVGO
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +33.0% · range 289.60–481.57
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 15.7% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 16.1% |
| FCF / revenue | 43.1% |
| Gross margin | 76.3% |
| ROIC | 17.0% |
| Forward P/E | 21.3 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +193.1pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +226.1% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +33.0% |
| Forward P/E compression | +69.3% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 5.99 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 19.53 |
| Trailing P/E | 69.46 |
| Forward P/E | 21.30 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.6%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q2 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | 22.19bn | +47.9% | — | — | 2026-06-09 |
| 2026-02-01 | 19.31bn | +29.5% | — | — | 2026-03-11 |
| 2025-11-02 (derived) | 18.02bn | +28.2% | — | — | 2025-12-18 |
| 2025-08-03 | 15.95bn | +22.0% | — | — | 2025-09-10 |
| 2025-05-04 | 15.00bn | +20.2% | — | — | 2025-06-11 |
| 2025-02-02 | 14.92bn | +24.7% | — | — | 2025-03-12 |
| 2024-11-03 (derived) | 14.05bn | +51.2% | — | — | 2024-12-20 |
| 2024-08-04 | 13.07bn | +47.3% | — | — | 2024-09-11 |
| 2024-05-05 | 12.49bn | — | — | — | 2024-06-13 |
| 2024-02-04 | 11.96bn | — | — | — | 2024-03-14 |
| 2023-10-29 (derived) | 9.29bn | — | — | — | 2023-12-14 |
| 2023-07-30 | 8.88bn | — | — | — | 2023-09-06 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±2.7% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±2.2% — filings move it 1.2× as much |
| Direction | 7 up, 5 down over 12 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | 2026-06-09 | +47.9% | -6.2% | +3.3% |
| 2026-02-01 | 2026-03-11 | +29.5% | -1.9% | +8.5% |
| 2025-08-03 | 2025-09-10 | +22.0% | +6.8% | -6.2% |
| 2025-05-04 | 2025-06-11 | +20.2% | +4.7% | +4.1% |
| 2025-02-02 | 2025-03-12 | +24.7% | +0.7% | -5.1% |
| 2024-08-04 | 2024-09-11 | +47.3% | +11.0% | +9.8% |
| 2024-05-05 | 2024-06-13 | +43.0% | +16.0% | -6.5% |
| 2024-02-04 | 2024-03-14 | +34.2% | -1.8% | +7.6% |
| 2023-07-30 | 2023-09-06 | +4.9% | -1.7% | +0.9% |
| 2023-04-30 | 2023-06-07 | +7.8% | +1.8% | +6.9% |
| 2023-01-29 | 2023-03-08 | +15.7% | -0.4% | -4.2% |
| 2022-07-31 | 2022-09-08 | +24.9% | +3.4% | -0.7% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Growing — shares issued |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 4,876.0M as at 2026-05-03 |
| Change over 1 year | +1.0% |
| Change over 3 years | +14.2% |
| Public float | $939.20bn as at 2025-05-02 (10-K) |
Counts are restated for the 10:1 split of 2024-07-15, which would otherwise read as a share issuance.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 372.52 — 418.13 |
| Protective stop | 359.05 (Atr, 9.2% risk) |
| Support | 406.79 (4 touches, 2.3% away) |
| Resistance | 428.74 (3.0% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the floor than the ceiling: about 2.3% above 406.79, a price buyers have stepped in at before, and 3.0% below 428.74, where sellers have turned up before. That floor has held 4 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 9.2% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 8/22/43 (83% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL (fresh up cross, 3d ago) | cloud twist BULL (fresh up, 5d ago) |
| Cloud event | Fresh up breakout 5d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 42% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 394.58 to 409.87. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +6.9% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -0.8% |
| 126 days | +22.2% |
| 252 days | +36.9% |
| Below 252d high | 13.6% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension above Kalman fair trend; entry risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | Expanded out of a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 19.4% of price |
| Recent tightest | 9.7% (7 sessions ago, narrower than 92.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.99× |
| Band | 357.84 — 434.59 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 19% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 92% of the time. It has started moving again since, swinging about 2.0 times as widely as during that quiet spell. A stock that has been quiet tends to make its next move look big by comparison, simply because the recent bar was low.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Mixed buying and selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 1 |
| Sell filings | 53 |
| Shares bought | 1,000 |
| Shares sold | 740,885 |
| Value bought | $373.6k |
| Value sold | $283.7m |
| Latest buy | 2026-06-11 |
| Latest sell | 2026-07-10 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Sold Brazeal Mark DavidChief Legal & Corp Affairs Ofc | 25,000 | $10,033,225 |
| 2026-07-08 | Sold DELLY GAYLA JDirector | 1,890 | $728,368 |
| 2026-07-08 | Sold Brazeal Mark DavidChief Legal & Corp Affairs Ofc | 25,000 | $9,479,700 |
| 2026-06-29 | Sold PAGE JUSTINEDirector | 1,602 | $598,916 |
| 2026-06-25 | Sold Brazeal Mark DavidChief Legal & Corp Affairs Ofc | 25,000 | $9,675,000 |
| 2026-06-24 | Sold SAMUELI HENRYDirector | 23,253 | $8,780,565 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
AVGO: no binary-event flag. Near IV 39%, far IV 47% (ratio 0.83), implied move 4.3%.
| Implied volatility | 39% near (7d) · 47% far (65d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.83× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 42% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.94× |
| Implied move | ±4.3% by 2026-08-19 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.47× |
| Skew | Flat (1.04×) |
| Call wall | 440.00 (+5.8% away) |
| Put wall | 320.00 (-23.1% away) |
| Gamma pin | 440.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 4.3% in either direction by 2026-08-19.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Repair Attempt
Rotation health 78.5/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.
| Rotation health | 78.5 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 55.5 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 109.4 | 94.8 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 116.4 | 87.3 |
| Sector vs SPY | Leading | 113.6 | 115.9 |
Direction of travel: North-West / early recovery
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 7/9 (+20.0)
- Altman Z-score 14.27 (+10.0)
- Insider conviction score (+9.0)
- Gross margin quality: 76.3% (+20.6)
- ROIC quality: 17.0% (+10.3)
- FCF margin quality: 43.1% (+20.0)
- Gross margin improving by 13.2 pts (+5.0)
- ROIC improving by 7.7 pts (+5.0)
- FCF margin improving by 4.4 pts (+2.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.026) (+2.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (3.38) (+8.0)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.05 (+3.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 7.8 (+1.0)
- Track 1: ADX 23.5 and rising (+5.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.74 (+3.3)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 3.3% (+5.3)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 2.9% (+5.0)
- Track 1: positive MACD regime (+3.0)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+8.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.01 (+0.3)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 5.1% (+3.2)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 2.0% (+3.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 support proximity 5.1% (+0.8)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.76 (+1.9)
- Regime convergence: ICHIMOKU_CLOUD_REVERSAL confidence 86.6/100 (STRONG) (+17.3)
Negative signals
- Track 1: MACD histogram deteriorating (-0.87)
- Track 1: RSI deterioration/extension 62.6, 5-day change -8.0
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.