AWK
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -5.0% · range 121.13–146.20
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | -3.0% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 5.8% |
| FCF / revenue | 40.1% |
| Gross margin | 61.5% |
| ROIC | 6.6% |
| Forward P/E | 20.6 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +18.8pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +13.8% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | -5.0% |
| Forward P/E compression | +12.1% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 5.77 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 6.57 |
| Trailing P/E | 23.38 |
| Forward P/E | 20.55 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.0%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (0.44–1.94, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q2 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 1.35bn | +6.1% | 315.00m | 1.61 | 1.61 | +3.4% | 2026-07-29 |
| 2026-03-31 | 1.20bn | +6.1% | 196.00m | 1.01 | 1.01 | -9.3% | 2026-04-29 |
| 2025-09-30 | 1.45bn | +9.5% | 379.00m | 1.94 | 1.94 | +2.3% | 2025-10-29 |
| 2025-06-30 | 1.27bn | +11.6% | 289.00m | 1.48 | — | — | 2025-07-30 |
| 2025-03-31 | 1.13bn | — | 205.00m | 1.05 | — | — | 2026-04-29 |
| 2024-09-30 | 1.33bn | — | 350.00m | 1.79 | — | — | 2025-10-29 |
| 2024-06-30 | 1.14bn | — | 277.00m | 1.42 | — | — | 2025-07-30 |
| 2015-06-30 | 782.12m | +3.0% | 123.08m | 0.68 | — | — | 2015-08-05 |
| 2015-03-31 | 698.08m | — | 80.04m | 0.44 | — | — | 2015-05-06 |
| 2014-12-31 (derived) | 724.05m | — | 93.50m | 0.52 | — | — | 2015-02-25 |
| 2014-09-30 | 846.17m | — | 152.19m | 0.85 | — | — | 2014-11-05 |
| 2014-06-30 | 759.16m | — | 109.30m | 0.61 | — | — | 2014-08-06 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±3.2% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.2% — filings move it 2.7× as much |
| Direction | 0 up, 7 down over 7 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-29 | +6.1% | -0.9% | — |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-29 | +6.1% | -3.2% | -8.6% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-29 | +9.5% | -6.0% | +2.8% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-30 | +11.6% | -0.5% | -0.8% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2026-04-29 | — | -3.2% | -8.6% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2025-10-29 | — | -6.0% | +2.8% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2025-07-30 | — | -0.5% | -0.8% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Flat — little net change |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 196.0M as at 2026-06-30 |
| Change over 1 year | +0.5% |
| Change over 3 years | +7.7% |
| Public float | $23.78bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 130.32 — 135.59 |
| Protective stop | 124.02 (Atr, 6.7% risk) |
| Support | 134.65 (2 touches, 0.2% away) |
| Resistance | 135.17 (0.2% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 0.2% below 135.17, where sellers have turned up before, and 0.2% above 134.65, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 6.7% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price INSIDE the cloud | periods 5/15/30 (57% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BEAR (fresh down, 5d ago) |
| Cloud thickness | 43% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading inside its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 133.79 to 135.10. Inside the band those averages disagree with each other, so the indicator is not saying much either way. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +2.5% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +5.7% |
| 126 days | +7.9% |
| 252 days | -7.3% |
| Below 252d high | 7.7% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway The share price is close to the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is going sideways. The gap between the two has been fairly steady. Neither is stretched far enough to stand out.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 5.0% of price |
| Recent tightest | 5.0% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 92.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 131.36 — 138.16 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 5% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 92% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger MACD histogram above zero 0.17 gap is improving · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Improving
- Trigger 3 MACD bullish crossover line/signal spread gap is improving · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 ADX turns up from weak trend zone secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Improving rapidly
- Trigger 5 Relative momentum rank above 0.55 +0.31 rank relative momentum leadership is not yet strong enough for the next action tier · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
AWK: no binary-event flag. Near IV 22%, far IV 24% (ratio 0.92), implied move 2.7%.
| Implied volatility | 22% near (9d) · 24% far (128d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.92× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 24% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.91× |
| Implied move | ±2.7% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.35× |
| Skew | Put Skew (1.21×) |
| Call wall | 180.00 (+33.4% away) |
| Gamma pin | 180.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 2.7% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Leadership Cooling
Rotation health 47.0/100; Mixed Rotation.
| Rotation health | 47.0 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 74.6 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Leading | 116.8 | 107.7 |
| Stock vs SPY | Lagging | 81.5 | 90.7 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 79.5 | 94.2 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+10.0)
- Gross margin quality: 61.5% (+15.2)
- ROIC quality: 6.6% (+1.4)
- FCF margin quality: 40.1% (+20.0)
- FCF margin improving by -3.6 pts (+-3.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.027) (+2.0)
- Track 1: volume confirmation 1.06x average (+0.4)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 0.5% (+7.6)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 0.5% (+1.2)
- Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 0.17 (+4.0)
- Track 1: RSI recovery 51.5, 5-day change +1.9 (+1.5)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.07 (+1.4)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 2.0% (+1.2)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 0.9% (+1.8)
- Track 1: EMA50 support proximity 2.0% (+3.4)
- Track 1: EMA200 support proximity 2.0% (+5.6)
- Track 1: constructive pullback zone (+15.0)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.52 (+3.8)
Negative signals
- Track 1: bearish DI spread (-2.8)
- Track 1: weak/falling ADX (11.6, falling)
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.24)
- Track 1: weak MACD line/signal structure (-5.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope deteriorating (-3.0)
- Below-average Altman Z-score (1.96)
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.