BABA
Some scores are at the bottom of their range
This score sits at the bottom of the 0–100 range. The underlying calculation was negative, so the displayed value is a floor, not a measurement of zero.
- Tactical Score: displayed 0, underlying value -77.9
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -3.5% · range 94.81–189.34
Score trends appear once the scores have been recorded on more than one trading day.
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / revenue | — |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0% |
| ROIC | 0.0% |
| Forward P/E | 12.9 |
No annual filing with both total assets and a cash-flow figure is cached for this name, so neither validated measure can be computed. FCF/revenue is shown instead, which is not the validated measure.
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +113.6pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +110.1% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | -3.5% |
| Forward P/E compression | +52.4% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 4.43 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 9.31 |
| Trailing P/E | 27.05 |
| Forward P/E | 12.87 |
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 118.03 — 121.03 |
| Protective stop | 115.50 (Structure, 3.4% risk) |
| Support | 117.17 (2 touches, 2.3% away) |
| Resistance | 121.54 (1.4% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 1.4% below 121.54, where sellers have turned up before, and 2.3% above 117.17, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 3.4% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price BELOW the cloud | periods 6/17/34 (65% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud event | Fresh down breakout 2d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 7% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through) |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price INSIDE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading below its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 121.90 to 123.94. Being below it means the medium-term picture is pointing downwards, and that band is the first hurdle it would have to climb back through. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +4.0% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -6.2% |
| 126 days | -21.3% |
| 252 days | -3.6% |
| Below 252d high | 36.7% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway The share price is close to the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is going sideways. The gap between the two has been fairly steady. Neither is stretched far enough to stand out.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 14.5% of price |
| Recent tightest | 14.5% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 83.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 115.90 — 134.04 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 15% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 83% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Positive 20-day momentum acceleration repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 EMA50 reclaim +0.7% gap is improving · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 EMA20 reclaim +2.2% gap is improving · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 RSI recovery above 50 secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Improving
- Trigger 5 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Deteriorating
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Mixed buying and selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 3 |
| Sell filings | 6 |
| Shares bought | 1,790,000 |
| Shares sold | 920,303 |
| Value bought | $25.7m |
| Value sold | $70.8m |
| Latest buy | 2026-08-25 |
| Latest sell | 2026-06-29 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Bought Tsai Joseph CDirector | 720,000 | $10,418,400 |
| 2026-08-24 | Bought Tsai Joseph CDirector | 720,000 | $10,288,800 |
| 2026-08-24 | Bought Wu YongmingChief Executive Officer | 350,000 | $4,984,000 |
| 2026-06-29 | Sold EVANS J. MICHAELPresident | 692,992 | $65,778,801 |
| 2026-06-29 | Sold EVANS J. MICHAELPresident | 27,008 | $2,581,695 |
| 2026-06-25 | Sold Jiang Fan (FJ)CEO of Business Group | 13,579 | $164,306 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Below its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
BABA: no binary-event flag. Near IV 39%, far IV 43% (ratio 0.90), implied move 4.6%.
| Implied volatility | 39% near (8d) · 43% far (85d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.90× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 49% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.80× |
| Implied move | ±4.6% by 2026-09-04 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.56× |
| Skew | Call Skew (0.85×) |
| Call wall | 160.00 (+38.4% away) |
| Put wall | 110.00 (-4.9% away) |
| Gamma pin | 160.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 4.6% in either direction by 2026-09-04.
Chain as at 2026-08-27. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Stock Rotation Headwind
Rotation health 16.2/100; Severe Rotation Headwind.
| Rotation health | 16.2 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 77.4 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Lagging | 74.5 | 79.9 |
| Stock vs SPY | Lagging | 82.2 | 77.8 |
| Sector vs SPY | Weakening | 110.8 | 88.9 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+5.0)
- Altman Z-score 3.00 (+3.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio 0.000) (+1.0)
- Track 2: ADX 33.9 and falling (+7.6)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 1.1% (+1.5)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.22 (+1.6)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak MACD histogram (-1.36)
- Track 2: weak MACD line/signal structure (-5.6)
- Track 2: MACD slope deteriorating (-3.7)
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.98x average)
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 2: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.16)
- Track 2: bearish DI spread (-8.9)
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.29)
- Track 2: price below EMA20 by 2.2%
- Track 2: EMA20 slope deteriorating -0.7%
- Track 2: MACD histogram deteriorating (-1.25)
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 40.7, 5-day change -26.2
- Track 2: weak VPT confirmation (-0.02)
- Track 2: price below EMA50 by 0.7%
- FCF margin unavailable: revenue missing from fundamentals cache
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 9.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.