BALL
Some scores are at the bottom of their range
This score sits at the bottom of the 0–100 range. The underlying calculation was negative, so the displayed value is a floor, not a measurement of zero.
- Tactical Score: displayed 0, underlying value -60.5
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +16.1% · range 46.41–67.76
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 4.0% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 6.5% |
| FCF / revenue | 9.6% |
| Gross margin | 18.6% |
| ROIC | 10.3% |
| Forward P/E | 13.7 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +14.9pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +31.1% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +16.1% |
| Forward P/E compression | +23.7% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 3.45 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 4.52 |
| Trailing P/E | 18.01 |
| Forward P/E | 13.74 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.0%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q2 18. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-06-30 | 3.10bn | +8.6% | — | — | 2018-08-03 |
| 2018-03-31 | 2.79bn | +12.6% | — | — | 2018-05-04 |
| 2017-12-31 (derived) | 2.75bn | +11.7% | — | — | 2018-03-01 |
| 2017-09-30 | 2.91bn | +3.3% | — | — | 2017-11-06 |
| 2017-06-30 | 2.85bn | +40.6% | — | — | 2017-08-09 |
| 2017-03-31 | 2.47bn | +40.8% | — | — | 2017-05-08 |
| 2016-12-31 (derived) | 2.46bn | +36.3% | — | — | 2017-03-02 |
| 2016-09-30 | 2.81bn | +34.2% | — | — | 2016-11-08 |
| 2016-06-30 | 2.03bn | — | — | — | 2016-08-12 |
| 2016-03-31 | 1.76bn | — | — | — | 2016-04-29 |
| 2015-12-31 (derived) | 1.80bn | — | — | — | 2016-02-16 |
| 2015-09-30 | 2.10bn | — | — | — | 2015-10-30 |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 267.4M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | -15.7% |
| Change over 3 years | -19.5% |
| Public float | $15.26bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 59.45 — 62.45 |
| Protective stop | 57.19 (Atr, 6.2% risk) |
| Support | 60.49 (5 touches, 2.7% away) |
| Resistance | 62.58 (0.7% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 0.7% below 62.58, where sellers have turned up before, and 2.7% above 60.49, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 5 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 6.2% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price BELOW the cloud | periods 6/16/32 (62% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BEAR (fresh down, 3d ago) |
| Cloud event | Fresh down breakout 2d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 18% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through) |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading below its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 63.09 to 63.74. Being below it means the medium-term picture is pointing downwards, and that band is the first hurdle it would have to climb back through. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +2.8% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +7.9% |
| 126 days | -8.3% |
| 252 days | +15.8% |
| Below 252d high | 8.3% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway Price is near a rising Kalman fair trend, consistent with a healthy trend setup.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 8.6% of price |
| Recent tightest | 8.6% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 91.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 60.94 — 66.39 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 9% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 91% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger MACD bullish crossover repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 Relative momentum rank above 0.65 +0.09 rank relative momentum leadership is not yet strong enough for the next action tier · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 RSI recovery above 50 +0.4 pts gap is broadly stable · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 Positive 20-day momentum acceleration secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Below its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
BALL: no binary-event flag. Near IV 32%, far IV 28% (ratio 1.15), implied move 4.0%.
| Implied volatility | 32% near (9d) · 28% far (65d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.15× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 25% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.27× |
| Implied move | ±4.0% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.56× |
| Skew | Flat (1.04×) |
| Call wall | 62.50 (+0.6% away) |
| Put wall | 45.00 (-27.6% away) |
| Gamma pin | 62.50 |
- Term structure inverted (near 32% IV vs far 28% IV, ratio 1.15)
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 4.0% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Stock Rotation Headwind
Rotation health 27.5/100; Severe Rotation Headwind.
| Rotation health | 27.5 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 80.1 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Lagging | 73.0 | 93.0 |
| Stock vs SPY | Lagging | 76.7 | 88.0 |
| Sector vs SPY | Leading | 106.7 | 101.2 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+5.0)
- Altman Z-score 4.12 (+5.0)
- ROIC quality: 10.3% (+1.5)
- FCF margin quality: 9.6% (+2.9)
- FCF margin improving by 8.6 pts (+2.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.018) (+1.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (0.22 -> -0.02) (+2.0)
- Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.56 (+1.9)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 0.7% (+0.5)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 1.5% (+3.6)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.22 (+1.8)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak MACD histogram (-0.43)
- Track 2: weak MACD line/signal structure (-12.0)
- Track 2: MACD slope deteriorating (-5.0)
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.47x average)
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 2: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.04)
- Track 2: bearish DI spread (-4.0)
- Track 2: weak/falling ADX (27.4, falling)
- Track 2: price below EMA20 by 1.6%
- Track 2: EMA20 slope deteriorating -0.4%
- Track 2: MACD histogram deteriorating (-0.29)
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 49.6, 5-day change -2.1
- Track 2: weak VPT confirmation (-0.11)
- Gross margin improving by -2.1 pts (+-1.0)
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 18.4/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.