BAX
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +12.4% · range 15.80–28.35
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 1.7% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 4.2% |
| FCF / revenue | 7.5% |
| Gross margin | 34.1% |
| ROIC | -1.3% |
| Forward P/E | 13.3 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +24.4pp
Confidence 80.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +36.8% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +12.4% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | -1.88 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 2.03 |
| Forward P/E | 13.26 |
Revisions
Stable (+1.4%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-2.20–4.93, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2.70bn | +2.9% | -15.00m | -0.03 | 0.36 | +15.9% | 2026-04-30 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 2.97bn | — | -1.13bn | -2.20 | 0.44 | -18.7% | 2026-02-12 |
| 2025-09-30 | 2.83bn | +5.0% | -46.00m | -0.09 | 0.69 | +14.2% | 2025-11-04 |
| 2025-06-30 | 2.81bn | -26.3% | 91.00m | 0.18 | — | — | 2025-08-05 |
| 2025-03-31 | 2.62bn | -26.9% | 126.00m | 0.25 | — | — | 2025-05-06 |
| 2024-09-30 | 2.70bn | -27.2% | 140.00m | 0.27 | — | — | 2024-11-12 |
| 2024-06-30 | 3.81bn | +2.8% | -314.00m | -0.62 | — | — | 2024-08-06 |
| 2024-03-31 | 3.59bn | -1.6% | 37.00m | 0.07 | — | — | 2024-05-02 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 3.75bn | — | 245.00m | 0.48 | — | — | 2024-02-08 |
| 2023-09-30 | 3.71bn | — | 2.51bn | 4.93 | — | — | 2023-11-02 |
| 2023-06-30 | 3.71bn | — | -141.00m | -0.28 | — | — | 2023-07-27 |
| 2023-03-31 | 3.65bn | — | 44.00m | 0.09 | — | — | 2023-04-27 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±3.6% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.5% — filings move it 2.4× as much |
| Direction | 6 up, 5 down over 11 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-30 | +2.9% | +1.8% | +1.7% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-04 | +5.0% | -1.4% | +2.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-05 | -26.3% | +0.3% | +3.0% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-06 | -26.9% | +1.0% | -7.0% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-11-12 | -27.2% | -4.6% | -6.2% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2024-08-06 | +2.8% | +5.6% | +0.9% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-05-02 | -1.6% | -8.6% | -10.0% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-11-02 | -1.7% | +3.6% | +4.4% |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-07-27 | -1.0% | -4.0% | -7.9% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-04-27 | -1.6% | +3.5% | -14.4% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-10-27 | +17.0% | -4.6% | -1.4% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Flat — little net change |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 515.0M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | +0.2% |
| Change over 3 years | +1.6% |
| Public float | $16.00bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
History before 2015-06-30 is not shown. The share count jumps at that date by a ratio no ordinary issuance produces — a split whose factor is not in Brown Bear's split store — so earlier figures are on a different basis and cannot be compared with today's.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 23.33 — 27.08 |
| Protective stop | 22.19 (Atr, 12.0% risk) |
| Support | 21.29 (3 touches, 26.6% away) |
| Resistance | — (— away) |
Takeaway The shares are about 26.6% above 21.29, a price buyers have stepped in at before. There is no ceiling to point to, because the stock is trading where it has not traded before and nobody has sold it at these levels. That floor has held 3 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 12.0% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 5/14/27 (52% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL (fresh up, 5d ago) |
| Cloud thickness | 62% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 25.58 to 26.51. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +23.6% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +50.6% |
| 126 days | +22.8% |
| 252 days | +14.9% |
| Below 252d high | 4.9% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extended |
| Trend slope | Rising strongly |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway Positive Kalman trend with moderate extension; constructive for momentum but watch entry risk.
Volatility
| State | Expanding |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 39.3% of price |
| Recent tightest | 21.4% (9 sessions ago, narrower than 22.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.84× |
| Band | 20.17 — 30.04 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 39% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
BAX: no binary-event flag. Near IV 44%, far IV 45% (ratio 0.97), implied move 5.5%.
| Implied volatility | 44% near (9d) · 45% far (100d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.97× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 55% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.79× |
| Implied move | ±5.5% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.41× |
| Skew | Flat (1.03×) |
| Call wall | 30.00 (+11.3% away) |
| Put wall | 17.50 (-35.1% away) |
| Gamma pin | 25.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 5.5% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Leadership Cooling
Rotation health 76.2/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.
| Rotation health | 76.2 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 69.7 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Leading | 111.7 | 115.9 |
| Stock vs SPY | Leading | 110.1 | 109.6 |
| Sector vs SPY | Improving | 86.4 | 102.1 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 4/9 (+3.0)
- Altman Z-score 4.53 (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 34.1% (+1.4)
- FCF margin quality: 7.5% (+2.3)
- FCF margin improving by -2.1 pts (+-1.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.090) (+2.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.06 -> -0.09) (+2.0)
- Relative Strength 11.3% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+10.0)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+10.0)
- Track 2: positive MACD trend regime (+10.0)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+10.0)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.15 (+12.0)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 39.7 (+15.0)
- Track 2: ADX 60.0 and rising (+18.0)
- Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.54 (+1.3)
- Track 2: price above EMA20 by 5.3% (+4.4)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 4.7% (+8.0)
- Track 2: RSI trend quality 74.4, 5-day change +6.1 (+1.2)
- Track 2: VPT strength 0.07 (+1.7)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 15.9% (+12.0)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 9.6% (+6.0)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.69 (+5.5)
- Regime convergence: ICHIMOKU_CLOUD_REVERSAL confidence 63.4/100 (EMERGING) (+12.7)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.87x average)
- Track 2: MACD histogram deteriorating (-0.38)
- Gross margin improving by -3.4 pts (+-1.0)
- ROIC improving by -1.9 pts (+-2.0)
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 11.7/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.