BE
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +336.9% · range 49.94–345.85
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 1.3% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 2.6% |
| FCF / revenue | 5.6% |
| Gross margin | 31.7% |
| ROIC | -0.8% |
| Forward P/E | 44.3 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +211.4pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +548.4% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +336.9% |
| Forward P/E compression | +84.6% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 0.76 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 4.93 |
| Trailing P/E | 287.12 |
| Forward P/E | 44.28 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.7%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 746.40m | +133.8% | — | — | 0.44 | +228.6% | 2026-04-29 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 772.76m | +36.3% | — | — | 0.45 | +40.7% | 2026-02-09 |
| 2025-09-30 | 513.33m | +59.5% | — | — | 0.15 | +55.1% | 2025-10-28 |
| 2025-06-30 | 396.26m | +21.4% | — | — | — | — | 2025-07-31 |
| 2025-03-31 | 319.26m | +41.2% | — | — | — | — | 2025-04-30 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 567.04m | +66.1% | — | — | — | — | 2025-02-27 |
| 2024-09-30 | 321.80m | -16.1% | — | — | — | — | 2024-11-07 |
| 2024-06-30 | 326.46m | +14.4% | — | — | — | — | 2024-08-08 |
| 2024-03-31 | 226.09m | — | — | — | — | — | 2024-05-09 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 341.28m | — | — | — | — | — | 2024-02-15 |
| 2023-09-30 | 383.44m | — | — | — | — | — | 2023-11-08 |
| 2023-06-30 | 285.29m | — | — | — | — | — | 2023-08-03 |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Growing — shares issued |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 319.7M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | +38.9% |
| Change over 3 years | +54.7% |
| Public float | $3.90bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
History before 2019-12-31 is not shown. The share count jumps at that date by a ratio no ordinary issuance produces — a split whose factor is not in Brown Bear's split store — so earlier figures are on a different basis and cannot be compared with today's.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 170.19 — 219.30 |
| Protective stop | 154.73 (Atr, 20.6% risk) |
| Support | 147.06 (2 touches, 48.4% away) |
| Resistance | 229.72 (5.3% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 5.3% below 229.72, where sellers have turned up before, and 48.4% above 147.06, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 20.6% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price BELOW the cloud | periods 8/23/47 (90% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud event | Fresh down breakout 6d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 69% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price BELOW the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading below its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 225.97 to 254.31. Being below it means the medium-term picture is pointing downwards, and that band is the first hurdle it would have to climb back through. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +30.8% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -25.7% |
| 126 days | +24.9% |
| 252 days | +342.2% |
| Below 252d high | 36.9% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 22.4% of price |
| Recent tightest | 22.4% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 88.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 193.56 — 242.30 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 22% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 88% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Relative momentum leadership holds already satisfied Track 2 pathway: relative momentum leadership is already present; maintaining it supports upgrade pressure · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 ADX turns up from weak trend zone repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Improving rapidly
- Trigger 3 MACD histogram acceleration turns positive secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Improving
- Trigger 4 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 RSI recovery above 50 +5.3 pts gap is deteriorating · Improving
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Insider selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 8 |
| Shares sold | 81,526 |
| Value sold | $19.8m |
| Latest sell | 2026-08-17 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Sold IMMELT JEFFREY RDirector | 30,000 | $7,167,300 |
| 2026-08-14 | Sold Joshi AmanChief Commercial Officer | 4,677 | $1,130,665 |
| 2026-08-14 | Sold Chitoori SatishChief Operations Officer | 2,053 | $496,087 |
| 2026-08-14 | Sold SODERBERG SHAWN MARIESee Remarks | 2,895 | $676,272 |
| 2026-08-13 | Sold CHAMBERS JOHN TDirector | 15,000 | $3,750,000 |
| 2026-08-03 | Sold CHAMBERS JOHN TDirector | 15,000 | $3,083,700 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
BE: no binary-event flag. Near IV 93%, far IV 94% (ratio 0.98), implied move 11.6%.
| Implied volatility | 93% near (9d) · 94% far (86d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.98× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 118% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.78× |
| Implied move | ±11.6% by 2026-09-04 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.53× |
| Skew | Flat (0.94×) |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 11.6% in either direction by 2026-09-04.
Chain as at 2026-08-26. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Mixed Rotation Phase
Rotation health 35.4/100; Negative Rotation.
| Rotation health | 35.4 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 67.1 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 111.6 | 81.5 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 110.6 | 82.0 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 81.0 | 94.8 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Altman Z-score 10.73 (+6.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 31.7% (+1.2)
- FCF margin quality: 5.6% (+1.7)
- FCF margin improving by -0.6 pts (+-0.9)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.046) (+1.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.05 -> -0.05) (+2.0)
- Track 2: MACD histogram state (0.98) (+4.6)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+5.8)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+9.5)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.79 (+30.2)
- Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.99 (+14.3)
- Track 2: price above EMA20 by 0.7% (+0.3)
- Track 2: VPT strength 0.01 (+0.3)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.51 (+3.8)
Negative signals
- Track 2: negative MACD regime (-3.7)
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.82x average)
- Track 2: bearish DI spread (-3.5)
- Track 2: weak/falling ADX (17.8, flat)
- Track 2: Bearish MACD divergence
- Track 2: EMA20 slope deteriorating -2.0%
- Track 2: MACD histogram deteriorating (-0.93)
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 44.7, 5-day change -5.1
- Track 2: price below EMA50 by 4.3%
- Track 2: EMA50 slope deteriorating -2.8%
- ROIC improving by -2.6 pts (+-1.8)
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 14.2/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.