BP
Some scores are at the bottom of their range
This score sits at the bottom of the 0–100 range. The underlying calculation was negative, so the displayed value is a floor, not a measurement of zero.
- Tactical Score: displayed 0, underlying value -32.5
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +22.6% · range 32.78–47.63
Score trends appear once the scores have been recorded on more than one trading day.
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / revenue | — |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 0.0% |
| ROIC | 0.0% |
| Forward P/E | 9.6 |
No annual filing with both total assets and a cash-flow figure is cached for this name, so neither validated measure can be computed. FCF/revenue is shown instead, which is not the validated measure.
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +91.6pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +114.2% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +22.6% |
| Forward P/E compression | +53.3% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 2.07 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 4.43 |
| Trailing P/E | 20.53 |
| Forward P/E | 9.58 |
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 41.86 — 42.92 |
| Protective stop | 40.67 (Atr, 4.1% risk) |
| Support | 42.31 (3 touches, 0.4% away) |
| Resistance | 44.32 (4.3% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the floor than the ceiling: about 0.4% above 42.31, a price buyers have stepped in at before, and 4.3% below 44.32, where sellers have turned up before. That floor has held 3 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 4.1% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price INSIDE the cloud | periods 9/25/51 (98% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud thickness | 62% percentile |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price INSIDE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading inside its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 40.74 to 42.93. Inside the band those averages disagree with each other, so the indicator is not saying much either way. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +2.0% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +2.0% |
| 126 days | +11.6% |
| 252 days | +21.5% |
| Below 252d high | 10.8% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway Price is near a rising Kalman fair trend, consistent with a healthy trend setup.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 10.1% of price |
| Recent tightest | 9.2% (7 sessions ago, narrower than 86.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.10× |
| Band | 41.05 — 45.40 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 10% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 86% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Relative momentum rank above 0.65 +0.00 rank relative momentum leadership is not yet strong enough for the next action tier · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 Positive 20-day momentum acceleration repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 EMA50 reclaim +0.0% gap is improving · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 EMA20 reclaim +1.3% gap is improving · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 Bollinger recovery toward mid-band +0.12 band position price remains in the lower Bollinger zone; recovery toward mid-band would support repair · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Below its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
BP: no binary-event flag. Near IV 29%, far IV 28% (ratio 1.01), implied move 3.4%.
| Implied volatility | 29% near (8d) · 28% far (85d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.01× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 32% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.90× |
| Implied move | ±3.4% by 2026-09-04 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.71× |
| Skew | Put Skew (1.74×) |
| Call wall | 45.00 (+6.0% away) |
| Put wall | 42.00 (-1.1% away) |
| Gamma pin | 45.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 3.4% in either direction by 2026-09-04.
Chain as at 2026-08-27. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Leadership Cooling
Rotation health 73.7/100; Positive Rotation.
| Rotation health | 73.7 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 69.3 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Improving | 86.3 | 102.5 |
| Stock vs SPY | Improving | 94.2 | 114.3 |
| Sector vs SPY | Leading | 110.4 | 112.9 |
Direction of travel: North-West / early recovery
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+5.0)
- Altman Z-score 3.00 (+3.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio 0.000) (+1.0)
- Track 2: volume expansion 1.34x average (+7.4)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 7.5 (+2.9)
- Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.65 (+4.8)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 0.9% (+1.4)
- Track 2: RSI trend quality 51.7, 5-day change +4.1 (+3.1)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 1.1% (+1.6)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.33 (+2.6)
Negative signals
- Underperforming sector over 20 days
- Track 2: weak MACD histogram (-0.10)
- Track 2: weak MACD line/signal structure (-5.6)
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 2: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.19)
- Track 2: weak/falling ADX (9.7, flat)
- Track 2: price below EMA20 by 1.3%
- Track 2: weak VPT confirmation (-0.06)
- FCF margin unavailable: revenue missing from fundamentals cache
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 9.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.