BRK-B
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +8.4% · range 465.40–529.42
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 2.0% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 3.8% |
| FCF / revenue | 11.2% |
| Gross margin | 30.3% |
| ROIC | 7.2% |
| Forward P/E | 23.4 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 52.8pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | -44.4% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +8.4% |
| Forward P/E compression | -79.9% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 39.27 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 21.83 |
| Trailing P/E | 12.99 |
| Forward P/E | 23.36 |
Revisions
Stable (+1.2%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Price has moved further than forward earnings growth currently justifies — worth weighing against the rest of the entry case.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net income Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 63.14bn | +6.4% | 10.11bn | — | 7,889.44 | -2.3% | 2026-05-04 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 62.73bn | -0.2% | 19.20bn | — | 7,093.19 | -15.9% | 2026-03-02 |
| 2025-09-30 | 63.75bn | +2.7% | 30.80bn | — | 9,376.15 | +4.8% | 2025-11-03 |
| 2025-06-30 | 61.41bn | -3.3% | 12.37bn | — | 7,759.58 | +0.2% | 2025-08-04 |
| 2025-03-31 | 59.36bn | -3.2% | 4.60bn | — | — | — | 2025-05-05 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 62.86bn | -2.7% | 19.69bn | — | — | — | 2025-02-24 |
| 2024-09-30 | 62.05bn | -4.8% | 26.25bn | — | — | — | 2024-11-04 |
| 2024-06-30 | 63.52bn | -2.9% | 30.35bn | — | — | — | 2024-08-05 |
| 2024-03-31 | 61.29bn | — | 12.70bn | — | — | — | 2024-05-06 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 64.58bn | — | 37.57bn | — | — | — | 2024-02-26 |
| 2023-09-30 | 65.20bn | — | -12.77bn | — | — | — | 2023-11-06 |
| 2023-06-30 | 65.38bn | — | 35.91bn | — | — | — | 2023-08-07 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±1.6% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±0.9% — filings move it 1.8× as much |
| Direction | 6 up, 6 down over 12 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-04 | +6.4% | -1.6% | -2.1% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-03 | +2.7% | +2.1% | +2.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-04 | -3.3% | -1.8% | +5.5% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-05 | -3.2% | -5.1% | -10.8% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-11-04 | -4.8% | -1.6% | -0.1% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2024-08-05 | -2.9% | -1.5% | +7.9% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-05-06 | +2.6% | +1.3% | -2.5% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-11-06 | +22.3% | -1.6% | -2.3% |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-08-07 | +23.5% | +3.9% | -0.0% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-05-08 | +20.9% | +0.3% | -0.6% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-11-07 | +8.8% | +1.8% | +1.6% |
| 2022-06-30 | 2022-08-08 | +10.0% | +0.2% | -0.7% |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 483.89 — 512.55 |
| Protective stop | 483.15 (Structure, 3.0% risk) |
| Support | 487.50 (7 touches, 4.6% away) |
| Resistance | 512.72 (0.5% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 0.5% below 512.72, where sellers have turned up before, and 4.6% above 487.50, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 7 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 3.0% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price BELOW the cloud | periods 5/14/29 (55% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud event | Fresh down breakout 0d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 83% percentile (thick — substantial structure) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading below its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 511.90 to 519.25. Being below it means the medium-term picture is pointing downwards, and that band is the first hurdle it would have to climb back through. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +3.9% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +5.2% |
| 126 days | +1.9% |
| 252 days | +9.7% |
| Below 252d high | 3.7% |
Trend context
| Position | Above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extended |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway The share price is above the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is going sideways. The gap between the two has been closing. Being stretched this far above trend measures how much room there is to fall back — it does not say the stock will stop rising.
Volatility
| State | Expanding |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 10.4% of price |
| Recent tightest | 6.3% (9 sessions ago, narrower than 22.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.65× |
| Band | 480.28 — 532.86 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 10% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
BRK-B: no binary-event flag. Near IV 14%, far IV 15% (ratio 0.95), implied move 1.7%.
| Implied volatility | 14% near (9d) · 15% far (65d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.95× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 18% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.79× |
| Implied move | ±1.7% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.34× |
| Skew | Put Skew (1.16×) |
| Call wall | 515.00 (+1.0% away) |
| Put wall | 480.00 (-5.9% away) |
| Gamma pin | 500.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 1.7% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Mixed Rotation Phase
Rotation health 48.2/100; Mixed Rotation.
| Rotation health | 48.2 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 75.5 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 114.0 | 96.8 |
| Stock vs SPY | Improving | 99.2 | 102.0 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 76.4 | 91.0 |
Direction of travel: South-East / trend strong but momentum cooling
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Altman Z-score 4.78 (+5.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 30.3% (+1.0)
- ROIC quality: 7.2% (+0.6)
- FCF margin quality: 11.2% (+3.4)
- FCF margin improving by 4.0 pts (+1.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio 0.017) (+1.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (0.05 -> 0.02) (+2.0)
- Track 2: MACD histogram state (0.50) (+8.0)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+15.0)
- Track 2: positive MACD trend regime (+10.0)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+5.0)
- Track 2: volume expansion 1.04x average (+0.2)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.06 (+4.0)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 25.9 (+12.0)
- Track 2: ADX 42.2 and rising (+18.0)
- Track 2: Bullish MACD divergence (+4.0)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 1.3% (+3.4)
- Track 2: VPT strength 0.12 (+2.9)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 2.0% (+1.6)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 1.7% (+4.1)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.57 (+4.5)
Negative signals
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.48)
- Track 2: MACD histogram deteriorating (-1.71)
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 63.7, 5-day change -18.3
- Gross margin improving by -69.7 pts (+-1.0)
- ROIC improving by -2.9 pts (+-2.0)
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 16.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.