CARG
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +6.1% · range 26.96–39.03
Score trends appear once the scores have been recorded on more than one trading day.
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 43.6% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 44.6% |
| FCF / revenue | 32.6% |
| Gross margin | 92.4% |
| ROIC | 43.6% |
| Forward P/E | 12.0 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Insufficient data to compare price against forward earnings growth
Confidence 40.0/100
Drivers
| Trailing price return (1y) | +6.1% |
|---|---|
| Forward P/E compression | +35.9% |
Figures
| Trailing P/E | 18.76 |
|---|---|
| Forward P/E | 12.03 |
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-0.66–0.50, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 243.56m | +8.2% | 32.23m | 0.34 | 0.58 | -0.2% | 2026-05-07 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 209.09m | -8.5% | 49.80m | 0.50 | 0.63 | -2.3% | 2026-02-19 |
| 2025-09-30 | 238.70m | +3.2% | 44.72m | 0.45 | 0.58 | +2.1% | 2025-11-06 |
| 2025-06-30 | 234.03m | +7.0% | 22.34m | 0.22 | — | — | 2025-08-07 |
| 2025-03-31 | 225.16m | +4.3% | 39.05m | 0.37 | — | — | 2025-05-08 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 228.54m | +2.4% | 45.88m | 0.43 | — | — | 2025-02-20 |
| 2024-09-30 | 231.36m | +5.4% | 22.51m | 0.21 | — | — | 2024-11-07 |
| 2024-06-30 | 218.69m | -8.8% | -68.72m | -0.66 | — | — | 2024-08-08 |
| 2024-03-31 | 215.80m | — | 21.30m | 0.20 | — | — | 2024-05-09 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 223.12m | — | -17.91m | -0.16 | — | — | 2024-02-26 |
| 2023-09-30 | 219.42m | — | 22.30m | 0.20 | — | — | 2023-11-07 |
| 2023-06-30 | 239.74m | — | 16.41m | 0.14 | — | — | 2023-08-09 |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 95.1M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | -9.5% |
| Change over 3 years | -18.0% |
| Public float | $1.74bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
History before 2018-03-31 is not shown. The share count jumps at that date by a ratio no ordinary issuance produces — a split whose factor is not in Brown Bear's split store — so earlier figures are on a different basis and cannot be compared with today's.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | At Support Zone |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 35.40 — 36.48 |
| Protective stop | 32.59 (Atr, 9.3% risk) |
| Support | 35.76 (4 touches, 1.2% away) |
| Resistance | 36.46 (0.7% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 0.7% below 36.46, where sellers have turned up before, and 1.2% above 35.76, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 4 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 9.3% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price INSIDE the cloud | periods 6/18/36 (69% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud thickness | 17% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through) |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading inside its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 35.97 to 36.84. Inside the band those averages disagree with each other, so the indicator is not saying much either way. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | -0.6% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +25.3% |
| 126 days | +19.6% |
| 252 days | +6.1% |
| Below 252d high | 7.3% |
Trend context
| Position | Above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway Positive Kalman trend with moderate extension; constructive for momentum but watch entry risk.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 8.2% of price |
| Recent tightest | 8.1% (1 sessions ago, narrower than 99.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.02× |
| Band | 35.31 — 38.35 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 8% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 99% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger MACD bullish crossover repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst; constructive pullback prioritises trend-floor and RS repair; Kalman reversion supports pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 EMA20 reclaim +0.7% gap is improving; Kalman reversion supports pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway; Kalman reversion supports pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 Relative momentum rank above 0.55 +0.10 rank relative momentum leadership is not yet strong enough for the next action tier; Kalman reversion supports pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 Positive 20-day momentum acceleration secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops; Kalman reversion supports pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Insider selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 8 |
| Shares sold | 51,337 |
| Value sold | $1.9m |
| Latest sell | 2026-08-14 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Sold Elshareef IsmailChief Product Officer | 8,957 | $340,366 |
| 2026-08-13 | Sold Sarnoff DafnaChief Marketing Officer | 17,151 | $634,587 |
| 2026-08-12 | Sold Schwartz Greg MDirector | 10,000 | $360,700 |
| 2026-08-07 | Sold Trevisan JasonChief Executive Officer | 1,100 | $45,166 |
| 2026-08-03 | Sold Zamora JavierGeneral Counsel and Secretary | 6,205 | $230,081 |
| 2026-07-02 | Sold Zamora JavierGeneral Counsel and Secretary | 3,533 | $127,400 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
no listed options chain
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Early Stock Rotation
Rotation health 65.6/100; Positive Rotation.
| Rotation health | 65.6 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 81.5 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Improving | 83.3 | 126.6 |
| Stock vs SPY | Improving | 83.1 | 121.9 |
| Sector vs SPY | Weakening | 110.8 | 88.9 |
Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 6/9 (+15.0)
- Altman Z-score 10.56 (+10.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 92.4% (+22.0)
- ROIC quality: 43.6% (+30.0)
- FCF margin quality: 32.6% (+20.0)
- ROIC improving by 20.5 pts (+10.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.211) (+10.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 13.5 (+3.0)
- Track 1: ADX 31.3 and flat (+6.0)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 0.4% (+1.0)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.02 (+0.4)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 2.8% (+1.8)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 2.2% (+3.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 support proximity 2.8% (+2.7)
- Track 1: EMA200 support proximity 6.9% (+2.2)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.29 (+5.7)
- Regime convergence: CONSTRUCTIVE_PULLBACK confidence 77.0/100 (STRONG) (+15.4)
Negative signals
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 1: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.11)
- Track 1: price below EMA20 by 0.7%
- Track 1: weak MACD line/signal structure (-5.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope deteriorating (-3.0)
- Track 1: RSI deterioration/extension 49.3, 5-day change -5.0
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.