CARG

CarGurus, Inc. ·Nasdaq Global Select·Consumer Discretionary
36.20 live · 2026-08-26 15:59
60.3%
Brown Bear Score
86.8%
Business Conviction Score
33.8%
Position Health Score
8.6%
Chase Risk
Daily closes

Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +6.1% · range 26.96–39.03

Score trends appear once the scores have been recorded on more than one trading day.

The Businesswhat the company reports

Business & cash flow

FCF / assets 43.6%
OCF / assets 44.6%
FCF / revenue 32.6%
Gross margin 92.4%
ROIC 43.6%
Forward P/E 12.0

FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).

Price vs Earnings growth

Insufficient data to compare price against forward earnings growth

Confidence 40.0/100

Reported earnings

Next report 2026-11-04 · consensus EPS 0.66

Q2 23 revenue: 239.74mQ2 23 net income: 16.41mQ2 23 EPS: 0.14Q3 23 revenue: 219.42mQ3 23 net income: 22.30mQ3 23 EPS: 0.20Q3 23Q4 23 revenue: 223.12mQ4 23 net income: -17.91mQ4 23 EPS: -0.16Q1 24 revenue: 215.80mQ1 24 net income: 21.30mQ1 24 EPS: 0.20Q1 24Q2 24 revenue: 218.69mQ2 24 net income: -68.72mQ2 24 EPS: -0.66Q3 24 revenue: 231.36mQ3 24 net income: 22.51mQ3 24 EPS: 0.21Q3 24Q4 24 revenue: 228.54mQ4 24 net income: 45.88mQ4 24 EPS: 0.43Q1 25 revenue: 225.16mQ1 25 net income: 39.05mQ1 25 EPS: 0.37Q1 25Q2 25 revenue: 234.03mQ2 25 net income: 22.34mQ2 25 EPS: 0.22Q3 25 revenue: 238.70mQ3 25 net income: 44.72mQ3 25 EPS: 0.45Q3 25Q4 25 revenue: 209.09mQ4 25 net income: 49.80mQ4 25 EPS: 0.50Q1 26 revenue: 243.56mQ1 26 net income: 32.23mQ1 26 EPS: 0.34Q1 26

Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-0.66–0.50, own scale) Derived Q4

12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.

Quarter endingRevenueYoY Net incomeEPS (GAAP) EPS reportedvs consensus Filed
2026-03-31 243.56m +8.2% 32.23m 0.34 0.58 -0.2% 2026-05-07
2025-12-31 (derived) 209.09m -8.5% 49.80m 0.50 0.63 -2.3% 2026-02-19
2025-09-30 238.70m +3.2% 44.72m 0.45 0.58 +2.1% 2025-11-06
2025-06-30 234.03m +7.0% 22.34m 0.22 2025-08-07

Share count

Diluted shares over time

Diluted shares Return since the previous filing

Direction Shrinking — shares retired
Diluted shares 95.1M as at 2026-03-31
Change over 1 year -9.5%
Change over 3 years -18.0%
Public float $1.74bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K)

History before 2018-03-31 is not shown. The share count jumps at that date by a ratio no ordinary issuance produces — a split whose factor is not in Brown Bear's split store — so earlier figures are on a different basis and cannot be compared with today's.

The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑

Price Levels

StrategyAt Support Zone
Reference band 35.40 — 36.48
Protective stop 32.59 (Atr, 9.3% risk)
Support 35.76 (4 touches, 1.2% away)
Resistance 36.46 (0.7% away)

Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 0.7% below 36.46, where sellers have turned up before, and 1.2% above 35.76, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 4 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 9.3% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.

Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.

Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)

Daily cloudPrice INSIDE the cloud | periods 6/18/36 (69% of classic 9/26/52)
LinesTenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BEAR
Cloud thickness17% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through)
Chikou spanNot clear of price from 26 periods ago
Weekly cloudPrice ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored)

Takeaway The stock is trading inside its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 35.97 to 36.84. Inside the band those averages disagree with each other, so the indicator is not saying much either way. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.

Trailing returns

21 days -0.6%
63 days +25.3%
126 days +19.6%
252 days +6.1%
Below 252d high7.3%

Trend context

PositionAbove trend
ExtensionExtended
Trend slopeRising
Direction of travelConverging back to trend

Takeaway Positive Kalman trend with moderate extension; constructive for momentum but watch entry risk.

Volatility

State In a squeeze
Current band width8.2% of price
Recent tightest8.1% (1 sessions ago, narrower than 99.0% of its history)
Expansion since1.02×
Band 35.31 — 38.35

Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 8% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 99% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.

Repair Pathway

  1. Nearest Trigger MACD bullish crossover repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst; constructive pullback prioritises trend-floor and RS repair; Kalman reversion supports pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Broadly stable
  2. Trigger 2 EMA20 reclaim +0.7% gap is improving; Kalman reversion supports pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Broadly stable
  3. Trigger 3 Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway; Kalman reversion supports pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Broadly stable
  4. Trigger 4 Relative momentum rank above 0.55 +0.10 rank relative momentum leadership is not yet strong enough for the next action tier; Kalman reversion supports pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Broadly stable
  5. Trigger 5 Positive 20-day momentum acceleration secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops; Kalman reversion supports pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Broadly stable

Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑

Insider activity

ActivityInsider selling
Buy filings0
Sell filings8
Shares sold51,337
Value sold$1.9m
Latest sell2026-08-14
FiledInsiderSharesValue
2026-08-14 Sold Elshareef IsmailChief Product Officer 8,957 $340,366
2026-08-13 Sold Sarnoff DafnaChief Marketing Officer 17,151 $634,587

Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.

Volume confirmation

Volume-price trend Above its signal line
Confirmation Marginal

No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.

Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.

Options Positioning

no listed options chain

Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑

Relative Rotation

ImprovingLeadingLaggingWeakeningvs sectorvs SPYsector vs SPYRS-Ratio →RS-Momentum →

Early Stock Rotation

Rotation health 65.6/100; Positive Rotation.

Rotation health 65.6
Rotation strength 81.5
LegQuadrantRS-RatioRS-Mom
Stock vs sector Improving 83.3 126.6
Stock vs SPY Improving 83.1 121.9
Sector vs SPY Weakening 110.8 88.9

Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership

Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.

News Headlines

  1. Loading headlines\u2026

Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.

Detailed Scoring

Positive signals

  • Piotroski F-score 6/9 (+15.0)
  • Altman Z-score 10.56 (+10.0)
  • Insider conviction score (+5.0)
  • Gross margin quality: 92.4% (+22.0)
  • ROIC quality: 43.6% (+30.0)
  • FCF margin quality: 32.6% (+20.0)
  • ROIC improving by 20.5 pts (+10.0)
  • High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.211) (+10.0)
  • Track 1: bullish DI spread 13.5 (+3.0)
  • Track 1: ADX 31.3 and flat (+6.0)
  • Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 0.4% (+1.0)
  • Track 1: VPT strength 0.02 (+0.4)
  • Track 1: price above EMA50 by 2.8% (+1.8)
  • Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 2.2% (+3.0)
  • Track 1: EMA50 support proximity 2.8% (+2.7)
  • Track 1: EMA200 support proximity 6.9% (+2.2)
  • Track 1: Bollinger position 0.29 (+5.7)
  • Regime convergence: CONSTRUCTIVE_PULLBACK confidence 77.0/100 (STRONG) (+15.4)

Negative signals

  • Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
  • Track 1: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.11)
  • Track 1: price below EMA20 by 0.7%
  • Track 1: weak MACD line/signal structure (-5.0)
  • Track 1: MACD slope deteriorating (-3.0)
  • Track 1: RSI deterioration/extension 49.3, 5-day change -5.0

Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.