CHD
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +9.7% · range 81.60–105.26
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 12.3% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 13.6% |
| FCF / revenue | 19.6% |
| Gross margin | 45.6% |
| ROIC | 14.2% |
| Forward P/E | 25.1 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +21.4pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +31.2% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +9.7% |
| Forward P/E compression | +22.8% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 3.08 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 4.04 |
| Trailing P/E | 32.45 |
| Forward P/E | 25.06 |
Revisions
Stable (-0.1%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-0.31–0.99, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 1.47bn | +0.1% | 216.30m | 0.91 | 0.95 | +1.0% | 2026-05-01 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 1.64bn | +3.9% | 143.50m | 0.59 | 0.86 | +1.8% | 2026-02-12 |
| 2025-09-30 | 1.59bn | +5.0% | 182.20m | 0.75 | 0.81 | +8.8% | 2025-10-31 |
| 2025-06-30 | 1.51bn | -0.3% | 191.00m | 0.78 | — | — | 2025-08-01 |
| 2025-03-31 | 1.47bn | -2.4% | 220.10m | 0.89 | — | — | 2025-05-01 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 1.58bn | +3.5% | 189.20m | 0.77 | — | — | 2025-02-13 |
| 2024-09-30 | 1.51bn | +3.8% | -75.10m | -0.31 | — | — | 2024-11-01 |
| 2024-06-30 | 1.51bn | +3.9% | 243.50m | 0.99 | — | — | 2024-08-02 |
| 2024-03-31 | 1.50bn | — | 227.70m | 0.93 | — | — | 2024-05-02 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 1.53bn | — | 153.70m | 0.62 | — | — | 2024-02-15 |
| 2023-09-30 | 1.46bn | — | 177.50m | 0.71 | — | — | 2023-11-03 |
| 2023-06-30 | 1.45bn | — | 221.20m | 0.89 | — | — | 2023-07-28 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±3.1% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.0% — filings move it 3.0× as much |
| Direction | 3 up, 8 down over 11 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-01 | +0.1% | -4.3% | -2.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-31 | +5.0% | +5.5% | -2.6% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-01 | -0.3% | -2.4% | +0.8% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-01 | -2.4% | -6.4% | +2.3% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-11-01 | +3.8% | +3.1% | +1.1% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2024-08-02 | +3.9% | -0.1% | -1.0% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-05-02 | +5.1% | -0.1% | -1.8% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-11-03 | +10.5% | -5.5% | +3.1% |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-07-28 | +9.7% | -0.3% | +2.3% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-04-27 | +10.2% | +5.6% | -4.0% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-10-28 | +0.4% | -3.1% | +5.3% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 238.1M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | -4.0% |
| Change over 3 years | -3.5% |
| Public float | $22.90bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
History before 2011-12-31 is not shown. The share count jumps at that date by a ratio no ordinary issuance produces — a split whose factor is not in Brown Bear's split store — so earlier figures are on a different basis and cannot be compared with today's.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 94.79 — 101.75 |
| Protective stop | 92.47 (Atr, 5.9% risk) |
| Support | 98.06 (2 touches, 3.2% away) |
| Resistance | 102.35 (1.1% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 1.1% below 102.35, where sellers have turned up before, and 3.2% above 98.06, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 5.9% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 5/15/30 (58% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL (fresh up, 3d ago) |
| Cloud thickness | 57% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 99.31 to 100.30. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +6.1% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +8.3% |
| 126 days | +2.3% |
| 252 days | +10.5% |
| Below 252d high | 3.8% |
Trend context
| Position | Above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway Positive Kalman trend with moderate extension; constructive for momentum but watch entry risk.
Volatility
| State | Expanded out of a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 10.4% of price |
| Recent tightest | 5.6% (9 sessions ago, narrower than 84.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.86× |
| Band | 94.67 — 105.05 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 10% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 84% of the time. It has started moving again since, swinging about 1.9 times as widely as during that quiet spell. A stock that has been quiet tends to make its next move look big by comparison, simply because the recent bar was low.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Relative momentum rank above 0.55 +0.06 rank relative momentum leadership is not yet strong enough for the next action tier · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 MACD histogram acceleration turns positive repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 ADX turns up from weak trend zone secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Deteriorating
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Insider selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 2 |
| Shares sold | 17,500 |
| Value sold | $1.8m |
| Latest sell | 2026-08-11 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Sold IRWIN BRADLEY CDirector | 4,300 | $441,575 |
| 2026-08-05 | Sold WINKLEBLACK ARTHUR BDirector | 13,200 | $1,357,310 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
CHD: no binary-event flag. Near IV 30%, far IV 23% (ratio 1.35), implied move 3.8%.
| Implied volatility | 30% near (9d) · 23% far (65d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.35× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 22% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.38× |
| Implied move | ±3.8% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.55× |
| Skew | Flat (1.14×) |
| Call wall | 105.00 (+3.7% away) |
| Put wall | 90.00 (-11.1% away) |
| Gamma pin | 100.00 |
- Term structure inverted (near 30% IV vs far 23% IV, ratio 1.35)
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 3.8% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Leadership Cooling
Rotation health 58.5/100; Mixed Rotation.
| Rotation health | 58.5 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 82.6 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Leading | 119.1 | 105.3 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 106.2 | 97.2 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 84.3 | 87.1 |
Direction of travel: South-East / trend strong but momentum cooling
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+10.0)
- Altman Z-score 5.13 (+8.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 45.6% (+9.4)
- ROIC quality: 14.2% (+7.9)
- FCF margin quality: 19.6% (+13.1)
- ROIC improving by 2.9 pts (+2.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.054) (+5.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (0.24) (+4.0)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.05 (+3.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 3.3 (+1.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.49 (+0.5)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 0.8% (+7.4)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 1.5% (+3.7)
- Track 1: positive MACD regime (+3.0)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+8.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+3.0)
- Track 1: RSI recovery 67.4, 5-day change +4.6 (+0.9)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.12 (+2.4)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 2.7% (+1.7)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 1.6% (+3.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 support proximity 2.7% (+2.8)
- Track 1: EMA200 support proximity 5.5% (+3.1)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.63 (+2.9)
Negative signals
- Track 1: weak volume confirmation (0.54x average)
- Track 1: weak/falling ADX (15.0, flat)
- Track 1: MACD histogram deteriorating (-0.33)
- Gross margin improving by -0.1 pts (+-3.0)
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.