CMI
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +59.8% · range 392.13–727.59
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 7.0% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 10.7% |
| FCF / revenue | 10.8% |
| Gross margin | 25.8% |
| ROIC | 17.6% |
| Forward P/E | 18.5 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +16.7pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +76.5% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +59.8% |
| Forward P/E compression | +42.9% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 19.56 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 34.53 |
| Trailing P/E | 32.36 |
| Forward P/E | 18.47 |
Revisions
Stable (+1.2%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 8.40bn | +2.7% | — | — | 6.15 | +9.0% | 2026-05-05 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 8.54bn | +1.1% | — | — | 4.27 | -17.2% | 2026-02-10 |
| 2025-09-30 | 8.32bn | -1.6% | — | — | 5.59 | +15.0% | 2025-11-06 |
| 2025-06-30 | 8.64bn | -1.7% | — | — | — | — | 2025-08-05 |
| 2025-03-31 | 8.17bn | -2.7% | — | — | — | — | 2025-05-05 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 8.45bn | -1.1% | — | — | — | — | 2025-02-11 |
| 2024-09-30 | 8.46bn | +0.3% | — | — | — | — | 2024-11-05 |
| 2024-06-30 | 8.80bn | +1.8% | — | — | — | — | 2024-08-01 |
| 2024-03-31 | 8.40bn | — | — | — | — | — | 2024-05-02 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 8.54bn | — | — | — | — | — | 2024-02-12 |
| 2023-09-30 | 8.43bn | — | — | — | — | — | 2023-11-02 |
| 2023-06-30 | 8.64bn | — | — | — | — | — | 2023-08-03 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±4.3% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.4% — filings move it 3.2× as much |
| Direction | 6 up, 5 down over 11 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | +2.7% | +9.0% | -8.1% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | -1.6% | +7.8% | +5.8% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-05 | -1.7% | +5.6% | +3.0% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-05 | -2.7% | -0.5% | +2.2% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-11-05 | +0.3% | +9.3% | +4.2% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2024-08-01 | +1.8% | -0.5% | +2.6% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-05-02 | -0.6% | -1.1% | -4.6% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-11-02 | +15.0% | +3.6% | -1.9% |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-08-03 | +31.2% | -9.8% | -0.2% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-05-02 | +32.4% | -4.3% | -10.5% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-11-04 | +22.9% | +1.6% | +0.9% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Flat — little net change |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 138.8M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | +0.4% |
| Change over 3 years | -2.5% |
| Public float | $45.10bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 566.25 — 641.04 |
| Protective stop | 543.98 (Atr, 9.9% risk) |
| Support | 629.17 (5 touches, 1.4% away) |
| Resistance | 669.27 (4.9% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the floor than the ceiling: about 1.4% above 629.17, a price buyers have stepped in at before, and 4.9% below 669.27, where sellers have turned up before. That floor has held 5 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 9.9% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price INSIDE the cloud | periods 5/14/28 (53% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BULL (fresh up, 5d ago) |
| Cloud thickness | 73% percentile |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price INSIDE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading inside its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 634.73 to 649.90. Inside the band those averages disagree with each other, so the indicator is not saying much either way. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | -5.6% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -9.5% |
| 126 days | +8.5% |
| 252 days | +64.3% |
| Below 252d high | 12.3% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 8.8% of price |
| Recent tightest | 8.8% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 98.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 616.23 — 672.99 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 9% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 98% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger EMA50 reclaim +2.6% gap is improving · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 RSI recovery above 50 repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Deteriorating
- Trigger 4 +DI back above -DI secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Deteriorating
- Trigger 5 Relative strength stabilisation state change relative momentum rank supports RS stabilisation · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Below its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
CMI: no binary-event flag. Near IV 35%, far IV 37% (ratio 0.94), implied move 4.4%.
| Implied volatility | 35% near (9d) · 37% far (128d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.94× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 36% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.96× |
| Implied move | ±4.3% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.39× |
| Skew | Put Skew (1.30×) |
| Put wall | 510.00 (-20.0% away) |
| Gamma pin | 470.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 4.3% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Stock Rotation Headwind
Rotation health 20.8/100; Severe Rotation Headwind.
| Rotation health | 20.8 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 53.3 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Lagging | 85.5 | 89.7 |
| Stock vs SPY | Lagging | 84.7 | 91.9 |
| Sector vs SPY | Improving | 87.2 | 105.9 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+10.0)
- Altman Z-score 5.13 (+8.0)
- Gross margin quality: 25.8% (+2.1)
- ROIC quality: 17.6% (+10.8)
- FCF margin quality: 10.8% (+7.2)
- FCF margin improving by 6.4 pts (+4.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.023) (+2.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (0.08 -> -0.02) (+5.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (0.25) (+4.0)
- Track 1: ADX 42.4 and rising (+10.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.89 (+4.9)
- Track 1: Bullish MACD divergence (+12.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 0.58 (+7.0)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+10.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+3.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 support proximity 2.5% (+2.9)
- Track 1: EMA200 support proximity 8.5% (+1.1)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.38 (+5.0)
Negative signals
- Track 1: weak volume confirmation (0.59x average)
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 1: bearish DI spread (-22.1)
- Track 1: price below EMA20 by 1.3%
- Track 1: EMA20 slope deteriorating -0.8%
- Track 1: RSI deterioration/extension 41.0, 5-day change -9.7
- Track 1: weak VPT confirmation (-0.02)
- Track 1: price below EMA50 by 2.5%
- Track 1: EMA50 slope deteriorating -1.1%
- ROIC improving by -8.4 pts (+-5.0)
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.