COHR
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +205.1% · range 86.55–426.89
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 1.3% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 4.2% |
| FCF / revenue | 10.9% |
| Gross margin | 37.0% |
| ROIC | 2.6% |
| Forward P/E | 42.5 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +62.0pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +267.2% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +205.1% |
| Forward P/E compression | +74.9% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 2.28 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 8.37 |
| Trailing P/E | 169.35 |
| Forward P/E | 42.48 |
Revisions
Stable (+1.0%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-1.30–1.19, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 1.81bn | +20.5% | 191.40m | 0.97 | 1.41 | -1.1% | 2026-05-06 |
| 2025-12-31 | 1.69bn | +17.5% | 146.72m | 0.76 | 1.29 | +4.7% | 2026-02-04 |
| 2025-09-30 | 1.58bn | +17.3% | 226.35m | 1.19 | 1.16 | +9.2% | 2025-11-05 |
| 2025-06-30 (derived) | 1.53bn | +16.4% | -95.62m | -0.62 | — | — | 2025-08-15 |
| 2025-03-31 | 1.50bn | +23.9% | 15.71m | 0.10 | — | — | 2025-05-07 |
| 2024-12-31 | 1.43bn | +26.8% | 103.39m | 0.65 | — | — | 2025-02-05 |
| 2024-09-30 | 1.35bn | +28.0% | 25.89m | 0.17 | — | — | 2024-11-06 |
| 2024-06-30 (derived) | 1.31bn | +9.1% | -48.44m | -0.32 | — | — | 2024-08-16 |
| 2024-03-31 | 1.21bn | — | -13.19m | -0.09 | — | — | 2024-05-07 |
| 2023-12-31 | 1.13bn | — | -26.99m | -0.18 | — | — | 2024-02-06 |
| 2023-09-30 | 1.05bn | — | -67.53m | -0.45 | — | — | 2023-11-07 |
| 2023-06-30 (derived) | 1.21bn | — | -178.23m | -1.30 | — | — | 2023-08-18 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±8.6% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±3.2% — filings move it 2.7× as much |
| Direction | 7 up, 5 down over 12 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-06 | +20.5% | -4.9% | +17.3% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-04 | +17.5% | -8.7% | +13.4% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-05 | +17.3% | +23.8% | +11.8% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-07 | +23.9% | +1.1% | +6.9% |
| 2024-12-31 | 2025-02-05 | +26.8% | +14.5% | -28.8% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-11-06 | +28.0% | +17.0% | -0.4% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-05-07 | -2.5% | -5.6% | +17.3% |
| 2023-12-31 | 2024-02-06 | -17.4% | +25.2% | +0.6% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-11-07 | -21.7% | +5.6% | +11.8% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-05-10 | +49.8% | -8.6% | +29.1% |
| 2022-12-31 | 2023-02-08 | +69.8% | -2.4% | -4.9% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-11-09 | +69.1% | +17.2% | +1.1% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Growing — shares issued |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 196.4M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | +26.5% |
| Change over 3 years | +41.2% |
| Public float | $14.63bn as at 2024-12-31 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 265.28 — 357.42 |
| Protective stop | 236.05 (Atr, 24.2% risk) |
| Support | 342.60 (2 touches, 3.8% away) |
| Resistance | 392.44 (10.3% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the floor than the ceiling: about 3.8% above 342.60, a price buyers have stepped in at before, and 10.3% below 392.44, where sellers have turned up before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 24.2% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 5/14/29 (55% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL (fresh up cross, 5d ago) | cloud twist BULL (fresh up, 3d ago) |
| Cloud event | Fresh up breakout 6d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 39% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 306.02 to 319.54. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +14.4% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -4.9% |
| 126 days | +55.7% |
| 252 days | +213.1% |
| Below 252d high | 16.7% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 52.9% of price |
| Recent tightest | 40.6% (7 sessions ago, narrower than 27.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.30× |
| Band | 219.74 — 377.91 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 53% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Strong |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway More shares change hands on the days this stock rises than on the days it falls. That is what you would expect to see if the rise is being driven by real buying rather than drifting up on a thin market.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
COHR: no binary-event flag. Near IV 110%, far IV 86% (ratio 1.28), implied move 13.8%.
| Implied volatility | 110% near (9d) · 86% far (65d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.28× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 133% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.82× |
| Implied move | ±13.8% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.54× |
| Skew | Flat (0.97×) |
| Call wall | 400.00 (+12.5% away) |
| Put wall | 240.00 (-32.5% away) |
| Gamma pin | 240.00 |
- Term structure inverted (near 110% IV vs far 86% IV, ratio 1.28)
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 13.8% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Leadership Cooling
Rotation health 99.5/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.
| Rotation health | 99.5 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 82.9 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Leading | 123.2 | 106.1 |
| Stock vs SPY | Leading | 122.7 | 109.0 |
| Sector vs SPY | Leading | 113.6 | 115.9 |
Direction of travel: South-East / trend strong but momentum cooling
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 6/9 (+8.0)
- Altman Z-score 10.29 (+6.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 37.0% (+1.7)
- FCF margin quality: 10.9% (+3.3)
- Gross margin improving by 6.1 pts (+1.0)
- FCF margin improving by -0.7 pts (+-1.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.039) (+1.0)
- Relative Strength 22.0% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+10.0)
- Track 2: MACD histogram state (10.98) (+12.0)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+15.0)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+8.0)
- Track 2: volume expansion 1.66x average (+3.3)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+10.0)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.46 (+20.0)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 6.8 (+3.0)
- Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.98 (+15.0)
- Track 2: price above EMA20 by 12.4% (+10.0)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 6.1% (+8.0)
- Track 2: MACD histogram acceleration 3.71 (+12.0)
- Track 2: VPT strength 1.76 (+12.0)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 9.6% (+7.7)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.86 (+6.9)
- Regime convergence: ICHIMOKU_CLOUD_REVERSAL confidence 93.6/100 (EXCEPTIONAL) (+18.7)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak/falling ADX (26.9, falling)
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 56.4, 5-day change -4.1
- Track 2: EMA50 slope deteriorating -0.5%
- Chase risk 55.1/100 (Elevated Chase Risk): RSI 56.4, EMA20 12.4%, EMA50 9.6%, BB 0.86, distribution 9.5/100
- Chase risk 55.1/100 | Extension score 44.9/100 | Elevated Chase Risk