DAVE
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +78.8% · range 155.92–442.53
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 59.4% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 59.5% |
| FCF / revenue | 52.3% |
| Gross margin | 71.7% |
| ROIC | 46.9% |
| Forward P/E | — |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Insufficient data to compare price against forward earnings growth
Confidence 25.0/100
Drivers
| Trailing price return (1y) | +78.8% |
|---|
Takeaway Low data confidence (limited analyst coverage) — treat this section as informational only.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-1.90–6.34, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 158.41m | +46.7% | 57.94m | 4.02 | 4.02 | +37.2% | 2026-05-05 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 163.72m | +62.4% | 65.94m | 4.55 | 4.57 | +40.4% | 2026-03-02 |
| 2025-09-30 | 150.72m | +63.0% | 92.07m | 6.34 | 4.45 | +139.7% | 2025-11-04 |
| 2025-06-30 | 131.76m | +64.5% | 9.04m | 0.62 | — | — | 2025-08-06 |
| 2025-03-31 | 107.98m | +46.7% | 28.81m | 1.97 | — | — | 2025-05-08 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 100.84m | +37.9% | 16.81m | 1.22 | — | — | 2025-03-04 |
| 2024-09-30 | 92.49m | +40.5% | 466.00k | 0.03 | — | — | 2024-11-12 |
| 2024-06-30 | 80.12m | +30.8% | 6.36m | 0.47 | — | — | 2024-08-06 |
| 2024-03-31 | 73.63m | — | 34.24m | 2.60 | — | — | 2024-05-07 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 73.12m | — | 179.00k | 0.01 | — | — | 2024-03-05 |
| 2023-09-30 | 65.81m | — | -12.05m | -1.01 | — | — | 2023-11-07 |
| 2023-06-30 | 61.23m | — | -22.62m | -1.90 | — | — | 2023-08-08 |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 14.4M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | -1.7% |
| Change over 3 years | +21.9% |
| Public float | $3.05bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
History before 2022-12-31 is not shown. The share count jumps at that date by a ratio no ordinary issuance produces — a split whose factor is not in Brown Bear's split store — so earlier figures are on a different basis and cannot be compared with today's.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 366.72 — 376.02 |
| Protective stop | 319.34 (Atr, 14.0% risk) |
| Support | 364.75 (2 touches, 2.1% away) |
| Resistance | 406.72 (9.2% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the floor than the ceiling: about 2.1% above 364.75, a price buyers have stepped in at before, and 9.2% below 406.72, where sellers have turned up before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 14.0% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 8/24/48 (92% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BEAR (fresh down, 3d ago) |
| Cloud event | Fresh up breakout 0d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 10% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through) |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 364.66 to 371.38. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | -8.4% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +45.3% |
| 126 days | +115.9% |
| 252 days | +88.0% |
| Below 252d high | 15.9% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 39.7% of price |
| Recent tightest | 39.7% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 43.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 283.85 — 424.29 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 40% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Below its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
DAVE: no binary-event flag. Near IV 69%, far IV 60% (ratio 1.15), implied move 8.7%.
| Implied volatility | 69% near (9d) · 60% far (86d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.15× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 93% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.74× |
| Implied move | ±8.7% by 2026-09-04 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.52× |
| Skew | Put Skew (1.94×) |
| Call wall | 640.00 (+71.9% away) |
| Put wall | 300.00 (-19.4% away) |
| Gamma pin | 300.00 |
- Term structure inverted (near 69% IV vs far 60% IV, ratio 1.15)
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 8.7% in either direction by 2026-09-04.
Chain as at 2026-08-26. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Sector Headwind / Stock Mixed
Rotation health 69.5/100; Positive Rotation.
| Rotation health | 69.5 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 72.3 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Improving | 94.2 | 116.3 |
| Stock vs SPY | Improving | 94.2 | 112.4 |
| Sector vs SPY | Weakening | 103.8 | 79.2 |
Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 6/9 (+15.0)
- Altman Z-score 36.28 (+10.0)
- Gross margin quality: 71.7% (+19.0)
- ROIC quality: 46.9% (+30.0)
- FCF margin quality: 52.3% (+20.0)
- ROIC improving by 21.0 pts (+10.0)
- FCF margin improving by 16.3 pts (+5.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.193) (+8.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (2.49) (+8.0)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 2.6 (+1.0)
- Track 1: ADX 28.7 and flat (+3.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.95 (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 4.6% (+4.3)
- Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 7.33 (+10.0)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+10.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+1.0)
- Track 1: RSI recovery 52.1, 5-day change +9.0 (+6.5)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 6.2% (+3.9)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.63 (+3.0)
Negative signals
- Underperforming sector over 20 days
- Track 1: weak volume confirmation (0.62x average)
- Track 1: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.03)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope deteriorating -0.2%
- Track 1: weak VPT confirmation (-0.00)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope deteriorating -0.6%
- Gross margin improving by -9.5 pts (+-3.0)
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.