EOG
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +21.3% · range 101.78–149.89
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| OCF / assets | 19.4% |
|---|---|
| FCF / revenue | 44.5% |
| Gross margin | 62.6% |
| ROIC | 14.0% |
| Forward P/E | 9.8 |
This company does not report capital expenditure in the standard filing tag, so free cash flow cannot be derived and FCF/assets is not shown — common for asset managers, REITs, insurers and utilities. OCF/assets is shown instead, and it is the other measure Brown Bear's testing found to survive. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 7.1pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +14.2% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +21.3% |
| Forward P/E compression | +12.4% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 12.83 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 14.65 |
| Trailing P/E | 11.16 |
| Forward P/E | 9.77 |
Revisions
Stable (-1.0%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Price and forward earnings growth are broadly in step; no strong valuation lean either way.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (1.28–3.70, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 6.92bn | +22.1% | 1.98bn | 3.70 | 3.41 | +5.8% | 2026-05-05 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 5.64bn | +0.9% | 701.00m | 1.28 | 2.27 | +2.6% | 2026-02-24 |
| 2025-09-30 | 5.85bn | -2.0% | 1.47bn | 2.70 | 2.71 | +10.4% | 2025-11-06 |
| 2025-06-30 | 5.48bn | -9.1% | 1.34bn | 2.46 | — | — | 2025-08-07 |
| 2025-03-31 | 5.67bn | -7.4% | 1.46bn | 2.65 | — | — | 2025-05-01 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 5.58bn | -12.1% | 1.25bn | 2.20 | — | — | 2025-02-27 |
| 2024-09-30 | 5.96bn | -4.0% | 1.67bn | 2.95 | — | — | 2024-11-07 |
| 2024-06-30 | 6.03bn | +8.1% | 1.69bn | 2.95 | — | — | 2024-08-01 |
| 2024-03-31 | 6.12bn | — | 1.79bn | 3.10 | — | — | 2024-05-02 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 6.36bn | — | 1.99bn | 3.40 | — | — | 2024-02-22 |
| 2023-09-30 | 6.21bn | — | 2.03bn | 3.48 | — | — | 2023-11-02 |
| 2023-06-30 | 5.57bn | — | 1.55bn | 2.66 | — | — | 2023-08-03 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±2.8% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.7% — filings move it 1.7× as much |
| Direction | 7 up, 4 down over 11 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | +22.1% | -4.9% | +1.4% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | -2.0% | +0.2% | +3.1% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-07 | -9.1% | -0.3% | -0.7% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-01 | -7.4% | +0.5% | -4.1% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-11-07 | -4.0% | +5.4% | -5.8% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2024-08-01 | +8.1% | -3.1% | -1.0% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-05-02 | +1.3% | +0.1% | -11.2% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-11-02 | -18.2% | +3.2% | -9.1% |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-08-03 | -24.8% | -0.2% | -0.1% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-05-04 | +51.7% | +2.8% | -5.7% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-11-03 | +59.3% | +4.9% | -11.9% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 535.0M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | -3.3% |
| Change over 3 years | -8.9% |
| Public float | $65.23bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 131.33 — 143.86 |
| Protective stop | 127.75 (Atr, 7.2% risk) |
| Support | 138.69 (2 touches, 3.2% away) |
| Resistance | 148.46 (3.7% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the floor than the ceiling: about 3.2% above 138.69, a price buyers have stepped in at before, and 3.7% below 148.46, where sellers have turned up before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 7.2% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 5/15/29 (56% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR (fresh down cross, 3d ago) | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud event | Fresh up breakout 2d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 37% percentile |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 138.88 to 140.84. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +3.7% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +6.7% |
| 126 days | +27.0% |
| 252 days | +22.5% |
| Below 252d high | 4.5% |
Trend context
| Position | Above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension above Kalman fair trend; entry risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 11.2% of price |
| Recent tightest | 11.2% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 72.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 134.12 — 150.07 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 11% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 MACD repair streak continuation 3 improving bars MACD histogram has improved for 3 consecutive sessions · Improving
- Trigger 3 MACD bullish crossover repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Improving
- Trigger 4 MACD histogram above zero 0.34 gap is improving · Improving
- Trigger 5 +DI back above -DI secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Improving
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Below its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
EOG: no binary-event flag. Near IV 42%, far IV 33% (ratio 1.27), implied move 5.2%.
| Implied volatility | 42% near (9d) · 33% far (65d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.27× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 42% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.00× |
| Implied move | ±5.2% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.63× |
| Skew | Put Skew (1.48×) |
| Call wall | 200.00 (+39.7% away) |
| Gamma pin | 105.00 |
- Term structure inverted (near 42% IV vs far 33% IV, ratio 1.27)
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 5.2% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Stock Rotation Headwind
Rotation health 26.3/100; Severe Rotation Headwind.
| Rotation health | 26.3 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 70.2 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Lagging | 76.5 | 97.1 |
| Stock vs SPY | Lagging | 91.8 | 88.9 |
| Sector vs SPY | Weakening | 101.7 | 90.8 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 4/9 (+5.0)
- Altman Z-score 6.32 (+10.0)
- Gross margin quality: 62.6% (+15.6)
- ROIC quality: 14.0% (+7.7)
- FCF margin quality: 44.5% (+20.0)
- FCF margin improving by -7.5 pts (+-3.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.098) (+5.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.61 (+1.8)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 1.7% (+6.7)
- Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 0.18 (+4.0)
- Track 1: RSI recovery 47.4, 5-day change +2.8 (+2.2)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 3.2% (+2.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 1.0% (+2.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 support proximity 3.2% (+2.4)
- Track 1: constructive pullback zone (+15.0)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.57 (+3.5)
Negative signals
- Track 1: weak volume confirmation (0.63x average)
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 1: bearish DI spread (-10.2)
- Track 1: Bearish MACD divergence
- Track 1: EMA20 slope deteriorating -0.2%
- Track 1: weak MACD line/signal structure (-5.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope deteriorating (-3.0)
- Track 1: weak VPT confirmation (-0.01)
- Gross margin improving by -5.7 pts (+-3.0)
- ROIC improving by -6.0 pts (+-5.0)
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.