ERIE
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -28.8% · range 207.24–368.96
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 17.0% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 20.5% |
| FCF / revenue | 16.6% |
| Gross margin | 17.9% |
| ROIC | 16.7% |
| Forward P/E | 18.4 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +55.8pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +27.0% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | -28.8% |
| Forward P/E compression | +21.3% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 11.03 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 14.01 |
| Trailing P/E | 23.41 |
| Forward P/E | 18.43 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.0%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net income Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 1.01bn | +2.3% | 150.47m | — | 2.88 | -7.7% | 2026-04-23 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 951.02m | +2.9% | 63.38m | — | 1.21 | -25.4% | 2026-02-23 |
| 2025-09-30 | 1.07bn | +6.7% | 182.85m | — | 3.50 | +1.8% | 2025-10-30 |
| 2025-06-30 | 1.06bn | +7.0% | 174.69m | — | — | — | 2025-08-07 |
| 2025-03-31 | 989.40m | +12.3% | 138.42m | — | — | — | 2025-04-24 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 924.09m | +13.0% | 152.03m | — | — | — | 2025-02-27 |
| 2024-09-30 | 999.89m | +16.4% | 159.83m | — | — | — | 2024-10-31 |
| 2024-06-30 | 990.44m | +17.9% | 163.90m | — | — | — | 2024-07-25 |
| 2024-03-31 | 880.70m | — | 124.55m | — | — | — | 2024-04-25 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 817.67m | — | 110.93m | — | — | — | 2024-02-26 |
| 2023-09-30 | 858.94m | — | 131.04m | — | — | — | 2023-10-26 |
| 2023-06-30 | 839.87m | — | 117.85m | — | — | — | 2023-07-27 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±5.7% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.3% — filings move it 4.2× as much |
| Direction | 3 up, 8 down over 11 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-23 | +2.3% | -6.6% | -8.5% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-30 | +6.7% | -3.1% | +0.6% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-07 | +7.0% | -0.4% | -7.7% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-04-24 | +12.3% | -12.1% | -8.8% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-10-31 | +16.4% | -7.8% | -0.4% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2024-07-25 | +17.9% | +9.9% | +12.9% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-04-25 | +17.0% | -0.2% | -2.3% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-10-26 | +15.9% | -7.2% | -3.6% |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-07-27 | +15.7% | +4.3% | +32.0% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-04-27 | +12.0% | -0.4% | -0.2% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-10-27 | +7.8% | +5.7% | +4.2% |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 254.30 — 260.75 |
| Protective stop | 241.28 (Structure, 6.3% risk) |
| Support | 246.52 (3 touches, 4.7% away) |
| Resistance | 262.48 (1.7% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 1.7% below 262.48, where sellers have turned up before, and 4.7% above 246.52, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 3 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 6.3% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 5/16/31 (60% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud thickness | 72% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 234.17 to 246.13. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +8.3% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +18.2% |
| 126 days | -7.3% |
| 252 days | -28.5% |
| Below 252d high | 30.0% |
Trend context
| Position | Below trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Oversold |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway Oversold relative to a stable or improving Kalman trend.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 25.4% of price |
| Recent tightest | 23.5% (5 sessions ago, narrower than 29.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.08× |
| Band | 207.10 — 267.30 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 25% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 Relative momentum rank back above 0.45 repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 Relative momentum rank above 0.55 +0.48 rank relative momentum leadership is not yet strong enough for the next action tier · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Moderate |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway More shares change hands on the days this stock rises than on the days it falls. That is what you would expect to see if the rise is being driven by real buying rather than drifting up on a thin market.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
ERIE: no binary-event flag. Near IV 27%, far IV 38% (ratio 0.71), implied move 3.4%.
| Implied volatility | 27% near (9d) · 38% far (128d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.71× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 52% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.52× |
| Implied move | ±3.4% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.28× |
| Skew | Put Skew (1.79×) |
| Call wall | 330.00 (+27.8% away) |
| Put wall | 200.00 (-22.5% away) |
| Gamma pin | 230.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 3.4% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Stock Leadership Confirmed
Rotation health 72.4/100; Positive Rotation.
| Rotation health | 72.4 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 71.0 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Leading | 111.3 | 115.0 |
| Stock vs SPY | Leading | 106.9 | 116.7 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 76.4 | 91.0 |
Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 4/9 (+5.0)
- Altman Z-score 15.02 (+10.0)
- ROIC quality: 16.7% (+10.0)
- FCF margin quality: 16.6% (+11.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.038) (+2.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.00 -> -0.04) (+5.0)
- Relative Strength 12.2% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+10.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (2.40) (+8.0)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.29 (+12.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 31.4 (+8.0)
- Track 1: ADX 34.1 and rising (+8.0)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 6.1% (+3.2)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 3.2% (+5.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 0.28 (+4.0)
- Track 1: positive MACD regime (+3.0)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+8.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.16 (+3.1)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 8.7% (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 2.4% (+3.0)
- Track 1: EMA200 support proximity 1.2% (+6.1)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.85 (+1.2)
Negative signals
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.07)
- Track 1: RSI deterioration/extension 75.0, 5-day change +12.3
- Gross margin improving by -82.1 pts (+-3.0)
- ROIC improving by -2.8 pts (+-5.0)
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.