ES
Some scores are at the bottom of their range
This score sits at the bottom of the 0–100 range. The underlying calculation was negative, so the displayed value is a floor, not a measurement of zero.
- Tactical Score: displayed 0, underlying value -18.4
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +8.7% · range 62.86–76.21
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | -0.1% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 6.4% |
| FCF / revenue | 30.4% |
| Gross margin | 52.8% |
| ROIC | 5.5% |
| Forward P/E | 14.6 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 4.2pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +4.5% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +8.7% |
| Forward P/E compression | +4.3% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 4.70 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 4.91 |
| Trailing P/E | 15.22 |
| Forward P/E | 14.57 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.2%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Price and forward earnings growth are broadly in step; no strong valuation lean either way.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-3.68–0.98, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 4.50bn | +9.4% | — | — | 1.61 | -2.4% | 2026-05-07 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 3.37bn | +13.4% | — | — | 1.12 | -2.5% | 2026-02-17 |
| 2025-09-30 | 3.22bn | +5.1% | — | — | 0.98 | -15.9% | 2025-11-06 |
| 2025-06-30 | 2.84bn | +12.0% | — | — | — | — | 2025-08-04 |
| 2025-03-31 | 4.12bn | +23.6% | — | — | — | — | 2025-05-05 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 2.97bn | +10.3% | — | — | — | — | 2025-02-14 |
| 2024-09-30 | 3.06bn | +9.7% | — | — | — | — | 2024-11-06 |
| 2024-06-30 | 2.53bn | -3.6% | — | — | — | — | 2024-08-02 |
| 2024-03-31 | 3.33bn | — | — | — | — | — | 2024-05-03 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 2.69bn | — | -1.29bn | -3.68 | — | — | 2024-02-14 |
| 2023-09-30 | 2.79bn | — | 341.54m | 0.98 | — | — | 2023-11-07 |
| 2023-06-30 | 2.63bn | — | 17.30m | 0.05 | — | — | 2023-08-04 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±1.5% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.3% — filings move it 1.2× as much |
| Direction | 4 up, 7 down over 11 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | +9.4% | -2.9% | +3.4% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | +5.1% | +0.2% | -10.6% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-04 | +12.0% | +0.5% | -6.4% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-05 | +23.6% | +0.6% | +3.9% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-11-06 | +9.7% | -2.0% | -3.8% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2024-08-02 | -3.6% | -1.6% | -2.5% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-05-03 | -12.2% | -1.7% | +0.8% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-11-07 | -13.2% | -1.5% | +3.6% |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-08-04 | +2.2% | -1.5% | -8.2% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-05-05 | +9.3% | +0.0% | -11.7% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-11-04 | +32.2% | -1.5% | +8.8% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Growing — shares issued |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 376.6M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | +2.4% |
| Change over 3 years | +7.7% |
| Public float | $23.59bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
History before 2012-06-30 is not shown. The share count jumps at that date by a ratio no ordinary issuance produces — a split whose factor is not in Brown Bear's split store — so earlier figures are on a different basis and cannot be compared with today's.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 70.68 — 72.82 |
| Protective stop | 68.20 (Structure, 4.9% risk) |
| Support | 68.93 (2 touches, 3.8% away) |
| Resistance | 73.84 (3.2% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 3.2% below 73.84, where sellers have turned up before, and 3.8% above 68.93, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 4.9% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price BELOW the cloud | periods 7/19/39 (74% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR (fresh down cross, 6d ago) | cloud twist BEAR (fresh down, 1d ago) |
| Cloud event | Fresh down breakout 2d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 8% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through) |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading below its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 72.57 to 72.62. Being below it means the medium-term picture is pointing downwards, and that band is the first hurdle it would have to climb back through. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | -4.1% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +4.1% |
| 126 days | +3.2% |
| 252 days | +8.9% |
| Below 252d high | 6.1% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway The share price is close to the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is going sideways. The gap between the two has been closing. Neither is stretched far enough to stand out.
Volatility
| State | Expanded out of a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 8.0% of price |
| Recent tightest | 3.3% (9 sessions ago, narrower than 99.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 2.42× |
| Band | 70.40 — 76.23 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 8% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 99% of the time. It has started moving again since, swinging about 2.4 times as widely as during that quiet spell. A stock that has been quiet tends to make its next move look big by comparison, simply because the recent bar was low.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Below its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Strong |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
ES: no binary-event flag. Near IV 27%, far IV 22% (ratio 1.23), implied move 3.4%.
| Implied volatility | 27% near (9d) · 22% far (65d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.23× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 19% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.44× |
| Implied move | ±3.4% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.55× |
| Skew | Flat (1.07×) |
| Call wall | 90.00 (+25.8% away) |
| Put wall | 40.00 (-44.1% away) |
| Gamma pin | 90.00 |
- Term structure inverted (near 27% IV vs far 22% IV, ratio 1.23)
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 3.4% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Leadership Cooling
Rotation health 44.6/100; Negative Rotation.
| Rotation health | 44.6 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 77.8 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Improving | 83.8 | 116.1 |
| Stock vs SPY | Improving | 78.6 | 100.2 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 79.5 | 94.2 |
Direction of travel: North-West / early recovery
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+10.0)
- Insider conviction score (+3.0)
- Gross margin quality: 52.8% (+12.0)
- ROIC quality: 5.5% (+0.4)
- FCF margin quality: 30.4% (+20.0)
- FCF margin improving by 12.2 pts (+5.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.038) (+2.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.02 -> -0.04) (+5.0)
- Track 1: ADX 30.4 and rising (+8.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.47 (+0.2)
- Track 1: EMA50 support proximity 1.0% (+4.2)
- Track 1: EMA200 support proximity 2.1% (+5.5)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.20 (+6.4)
Negative signals
- Track 1: weak volume confirmation (0.51x average)
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 1: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.10)
- Track 1: bearish DI spread (-17.5)
- Track 1: price below EMA20 by 1.6%
- Track 1: EMA20 slope deteriorating -1.0%
- Track 1: weak MACD line/signal structure (-5.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope deteriorating (-3.0)
- Track 1: RSI deterioration/extension 32.3, 5-day change -4.8
- Track 1: weak VPT confirmation (-0.50)
- Track 1: price below EMA50 by 1.0%
- Track 1: EMA50 slope deteriorating -0.1%
- Below-average Altman Z-score (1.61)
- Gross margin improving by -30.3 pts (+-3.0)
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.