ESTC
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +2.2% · range 43.30–94.47
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 10.2% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 10.4% |
| FCF / revenue | 18.8% |
| Gross margin | 76.2% |
| ROIC | 1.2% |
| Forward P/E | 20.4 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2026).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +12.5pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +14.7% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +2.2% |
| Forward P/E compression | +12.8% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 3.38 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 3.88 |
| Trailing P/E | 23.45 |
| Forward P/E | 20.45 |
Revisions
Stable (-0.1%, 3 prior obs)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-0.50–4.07, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q2 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 (derived) | 450.68m | +16.0% | 435.90m | 4.07 | 2026-06-08 |
| 2026-01-31 | 449.88m | +17.7% | 7.75m | 0.07 | 2026-02-27 |
| 2025-10-31 | 423.48m | +15.9% | -51.28m | -0.48 | 2025-11-24 |
| 2025-07-31 | 415.29m | +19.5% | -24.60m | -0.23 | 2025-08-29 |
| 2025-04-30 (derived) | 388.43m | +16.0% | -16.38m | -0.16 | 2025-06-10 |
| 2025-01-31 | 382.08m | +16.5% | -17.06m | -0.16 | 2025-02-28 |
| 2024-10-31 | 365.36m | +17.6% | -25.45m | -0.25 | 2024-11-25 |
| 2024-07-31 | 347.42m | +18.3% | -49.23m | -0.48 | 2024-08-30 |
| 2024-04-30 (derived) | 335.00m | — | -41.10m | -0.40 | 2024-06-14 |
| 2024-01-31 | 327.96m | — | 176.12m | 1.69 | 2024-03-01 |
| 2023-10-31 | 310.61m | — | -24.80m | -0.25 | 2023-12-01 |
| 2023-07-31 | 293.75m | — | -48.51m | -0.50 | 2023-09-01 |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Growing — shares issued |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 107.2M as at 2026-04-30 |
| Change over 1 year | +3.4% |
| Change over 3 years | +12.0% |
| Public float | $9.40bn as at 2025-10-31 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 68.34 — 79.65 |
| Protective stop | 64.90 (Atr, 12.3% risk) |
| Support | 57.85 (2 touches, 37.0% away) |
| Resistance | 87.91 (10.9% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 10.9% below 87.91, where sellers have turned up before, and 37.0% above 57.85, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 12.3% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price INSIDE the cloud | periods 8/23/46 (89% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud thickness | 93% percentile (thick — substantial structure) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading inside its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 70.62 to 82.03. Inside the band those averages disagree with each other, so the indicator is not saying much either way. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +27.6% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +47.0% |
| 126 days | +36.6% |
| 252 days | +0.4% |
| Below 252d high | 16.1% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway Positive Kalman trend with moderate extension; constructive for momentum but watch entry risk.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 38.8% of price |
| Recent tightest | 38.8% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 14.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 62.76 — 93.00 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 39% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger MACD histogram acceleration turns positive repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Deteriorating
- Trigger 2 Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 MACD bullish crossover secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Deteriorating
- Trigger 4 Relative momentum rank above 0.55 +0.20 rank relative momentum leadership is not yet strong enough for the next action tier · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 MACD histogram above zero 0.51 gap is deteriorating · Deteriorating
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
ESTC: no binary-event flag. Near IV 88%, far IV 77% (ratio 1.14), implied move 17.6%.
| Implied volatility | 88% near (23d) · 77% far (86d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.14× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 59% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.50× |
| Implied move | ±17.6% by 2026-09-18 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.80× |
| Skew | Flat (0.94×) |
| Put wall | 40.00 (-49.5% away) |
| Gamma pin | 55.00 |
- Term structure inverted (near 88% IV vs far 77% IV, ratio 1.14)
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 17.6% in either direction by 2026-09-18.
Chain as at 2026-08-26. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Sector Headwind / Stock Mixed
Rotation health 39.6/100; Negative Rotation.
| Rotation health | 39.6 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 82.4 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 108.8 | 84.9 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 107.8 | 86.5 |
| Sector vs SPY | Weakening | 103.8 | 79.2 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 4/9 (+7.1)
- Altman Z-score 4.45 (+11.4)
- Gross margin quality: 76.2% (+16.5)
- FCF margin quality: 18.8% (+10.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio 0.013) (+1.6)
- Relative Strength 19.3% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+10.0)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.10 (+6.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 20.0 (+5.0)
- Track 1: ADX 58.9 and flat (+8.0)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 1.5% (+6.8)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 3.9% (+5.0)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.06 (+1.3)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 13.0% (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 10.9% (+3.0)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.55 (+3.6)
Negative signals
- Track 1: weak MACD histogram (-0.51)
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.35)
- Track 1: Bearish MACD divergence
- Track 1: MACD histogram deteriorating (-1.98)
- Track 1: weak MACD line/signal structure (-8.0)
- Track 1: RSI deterioration/extension 64.5, 5-day change -21.3
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.