EXEL
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +46.3% · range 34.54–57.10
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / revenue | 38.1% |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 96.5% |
| ROIC | 31.4% |
| Forward P/E | 13.5 |
No annual filing with both total assets and a cash-flow figure is cached for this name, so neither validated measure can be computed. FCF/revenue is shown instead, which is not the validated measure.
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 15.6pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +30.7% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +46.3% |
| Forward P/E compression | +23.5% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 3.18 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 4.16 |
| Trailing P/E | 17.64 |
| Forward P/E | 13.50 |
Revisions
Stable (+2.7%, 3 prior obs)
Takeaway Price has moved further than forward earnings growth currently justifies — worth weighing against the rest of the entry case.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | At Support Zone |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 53.75 — 55.38 |
| Protective stop | 50.95 (Atr, 6.6% risk) |
| Support | 54.30 (2 touches, 3.3% away) |
| Resistance | 57.03 (1.7% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 1.7% below 57.03, where sellers have turned up before, and 3.3% above 54.30, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 6.6% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 8/23/46 (89% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL (fresh up, 1d ago) |
| Cloud event | Fresh up breakout 3d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 27% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 53.77 to 54.18. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | -0.7% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +12.1% |
| 126 days | +25.4% |
| 252 days | +48.0% |
| Below 252d high | 1.8% |
Trend context
| Position | Above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Positive Kalman trend with moderate extension; constructive for momentum but watch entry risk.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 14.8% of price |
| Recent tightest | 14.4% (2 sessions ago, narrower than 21.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.03× |
| Band | 49.74 — 57.71 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 15% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Insider selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 1 |
| Shares sold | 9,812 |
| Value sold | $526.5k |
| Latest sell | 2026-08-10 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Sold Beckerle Mary CDirector | 9,812 | $526,512 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
EXEL: no binary-event flag. Near IV 39%, far IV 45% (ratio 0.87), implied move 7.9%.
| Implied volatility | 39% near (23d) · 45% far (86d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.87× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 48% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.82× |
| Implied move | ±7.9% by 2026-09-18 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.64× |
| Skew | Flat (0.94×) |
| Call wall | 60.00 (+7.0% away) |
| Put wall | 50.00 (-10.9% away) |
| Gamma pin | 60.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 7.9% in either direction by 2026-09-18.
Chain as at 2026-08-26. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Early Stock Rotation
Rotation health 94.2/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.
| Rotation health | 94.2 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 78.1 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Improving | 97.0 | 113.5 |
| Stock vs SPY | Leading | 101.3 | 118.2 |
| Sector vs SPY | Leading | 113.2 | 117.8 |
Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 6/9 (+15.0)
- Altman Z-score 21.02 (+10.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 96.5% (+22.0)
- ROIC quality: 31.4% (+22.6)
- FCF margin quality: 38.1% (+20.0)
- ROIC improving by 8.0 pts (+5.0)
- FCF margin improving by 5.8 pts (+4.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.036) (+2.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (0.43) (+4.0)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 14.1 (+3.0)
- Track 1: ADX 37.9 and falling (+4.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.85 (+4.5)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 3.6% (+5.1)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 1.3% (+3.2)
- Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 0.51 (+7.0)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+10.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+3.0)
- Track 1: RSI recovery 64.0, 5-day change +17.8 (+4.4)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.01 (+0.2)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 4.8% (+3.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 0.3% (+0.6)
- Track 1: EMA50 support proximity 4.8% (+1.0)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.80 (+1.6)
- Regime convergence: CONSTRUCTIVE_PULLBACK confidence 100.0/100 (STRONG) (+20.0)
Negative signals
- Underperforming sector over 20 days
- Track 1: weak volume confirmation (0.66x average)
- Gross margin improving by -0.0 pts (+-3.0)
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.