GS
Structural scoring is not meaningful for this business
Structural scoring uses gross margin, free cash flow and Altman Z — measures built for operating companies. For banks, insurers and asset managers they produce artifacts, because the cash-flow statement is dominated by lending and deposit flows rather than operations. Treat the structural and composite figures below as not comparable with other sectors, in either direction.
- Reported free cash flow is far outside the range an operating business can show, indicating balance-sheet rather than operating flows
Some scores are at the bottom of their range
This score sits at the bottom of the 0–100 range. The underlying calculation was negative, so the displayed value is a floor, not a measurement of zero.
- Structural Score: displayed 0, underlying value -7.0
- Tactical Score: displayed 0, underlying value -33.5
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +40.0% · range 715.95–1,152.07
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | -2.6% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | -2.5% |
| FCF / revenue | -77.5% |
| Gross margin | 82.1% |
| ROIC | 0.9% |
| Forward P/E | 14.1 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 26.2pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +13.8% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +40.0% |
| Forward P/E compression | +12.6% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 65.06 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 74.03 |
| Trailing P/E | 16.11 |
| Forward P/E | 14.08 |
Revisions
Stable (+2.3%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Price has moved further than forward earnings growth currently justifies — worth weighing against the rest of the entry case.
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 308.0M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | -9.3% |
| Change over 3 years | -14.7% |
| Public float | $213.20bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 956.32 — 1,047.84 |
| Protective stop | 930.16 (Atr, 7.2% risk) |
| Support | 1,037.06 (3 touches, 0.5% away) |
| Resistance | 1,088.02 (4.4% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the floor than the ceiling: about 0.5% above 1,037.06, a price buyers have stepped in at before, and 4.4% below 1,088.02, where sellers have turned up before. That floor has held 3 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 7.2% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price BELOW the cloud | periods 7/20/40 (76% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL (fresh up cross, 2d ago) | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud event | Fresh down breakout 5d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 36% percentile |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading below its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 1,047.40 to 1,065.85. Being below it means the medium-term picture is pointing downwards, and that band is the first hurdle it would have to climb back through. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | -9.5% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +9.1% |
| 126 days | +10.4% |
| 252 days | +40.3% |
| Below 252d high | 9.5% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 9.9% of price |
| Recent tightest | 9.9% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 83.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 993.82 — 1,096.87 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 10% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 83% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger MACD repair streak continuation 5 improving bars MACD histogram has improved for 5 consecutive sessions; Kalman divergence weakens pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Improving rapidly
- Trigger 2 EMA20 reclaim +0.1% gap is improving; Kalman divergence weakens pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 MACD histogram above zero 0.69 gap is improving; Kalman divergence weakens pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Improving rapidly
- Trigger 4 MACD bullish crossover line/signal spread gap is improving; Kalman divergence weakens pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Improving rapidly
- Trigger 5 RSI recovery above 50 +4.2 pts gap is improving; Kalman divergence weakens pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Improving rapidly
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
GS: no binary-event flag. Near IV 29%, far IV 33% (ratio 0.87), implied move 3.4%.
| Implied volatility | 29% near (8d) · 33% far (64d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.87× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 34% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.85× |
| Implied move | ±3.5% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.44× |
| Skew | Put Skew (1.16×) |
| Call wall | 1,460.00 (+40.0% away) |
| Put wall | 655.00 (-37.2% away) |
| Gamma pin | 655.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 3.5% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-13. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Repair Attempt
Rotation health 33.2/100; Negative Rotation.
| Rotation health | 33.2 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 58.8 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Lagging | 91.6 | 98.6 |
| Stock vs SPY | Lagging | 85.3 | 96.4 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 78.1 | 92.4 |
Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 82.1% (+6.0)
- FCF margin improving by -52.8 pts (+-1.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio 0.034) (+1.0)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+2.0)
- Track 2: ADX 23.5 and rising (+10.0)
- Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.79 (+9.7)
- Track 2: MACD histogram acceleration 2.33 (+4.0)
- Track 2: RSI trend quality 45.8, 5-day change +1.4 (+1.1)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 0.7% (+0.5)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 0.1% (+0.3)
- Track 2: constructive pullback within uptrend (+10)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.47 (+3.8)
- Regime convergence: TREND_EXHAUSTION confidence 60.0/100 (EMERGING) (-12.0)
Negative signals
- Underperforming sector over 20 days
- Track 2: weak MACD histogram (-0.69)
- Track 2: weak MACD line/signal structure (-5.0)
- Track 2: negative MACD regime (-8.0)
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.61x average)
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 2: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.05)
- Track 2: bearish DI spread (-7.1)
- Track 2: price below EMA20 by 0.1%
- Track 2: EMA20 slope deteriorating -0.4%
- Track 2: weak VPT confirmation (0.00)
- Below-average Altman Z-score (1.36)
- Gross margin improving by -17.9 pts (+-1.0)
- ROIC improving by -0.1 pts (+-2.0)
- Track 2 structural exemption: Z-Score 1.36 below the 1.8 insolvency-risk floor and structural score 0.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.