HAL
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +58.8% · range 20.97–42.98
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 6.7% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 11.7% |
| FCF / revenue | 13.2% |
| Gross margin | 15.1% |
| ROIC | 10.9% |
| Forward P/E | 11.4 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 4.1pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +54.7% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +58.8% |
| Forward P/E compression | +35.3% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 1.88 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 2.91 |
| Trailing P/E | 17.71 |
| Forward P/E | 11.45 |
Revisions
Stable (-1.2%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Price and forward earnings growth are broadly in step; no strong valuation lean either way.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-3.73–0.58, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q2 18. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-06-30 | 6.15bn | +24.0% | 511.00m | 0.58 | 2018-07-27 |
| 2018-03-31 | 5.74bn | +34.1% | 46.00m | 0.05 | 2018-04-27 |
| 2017-12-31 (derived) | 5.94bn | +47.7% | -824.00m | -0.95 | 2018-02-09 |
| 2017-09-30 | 5.44bn | +42.0% | 365.00m | 0.42 | 2017-10-27 |
| 2017-06-30 | 4.96bn | +29.3% | 28.00m | 0.03 | 2017-07-28 |
| 2017-03-31 | 4.28bn | +1.9% | -32.00m | -0.04 | 2017-04-28 |
| 2016-12-31 (derived) | 4.02bn | -20.9% | -149.00m | -0.17 | 2017-02-07 |
| 2016-09-30 | 3.83bn | -31.3% | 6.00m | 0.01 | 2016-10-28 |
| 2016-06-30 | 3.83bn | — | -3.21bn | -3.73 | 2016-08-01 |
| 2016-03-31 | 4.20bn | — | -2.41bn | -2.81 | 2016-05-06 |
| 2015-12-31 (derived) | 5.08bn | — | -28.00m | -0.03 | 2016-02-05 |
| 2015-09-30 | 5.58bn | — | -54.00m | -0.06 | 2015-10-23 |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 839.0M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | -5.8% |
| Change over 3 years | -4.4% |
| Public float | $15.20bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 32.79 — 33.62 |
| Protective stop | 32.05 (Structure, 3.5% risk) |
| Support | 32.49 (3 touches, 2.5% away) |
| Resistance | 35.18 (5.7% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the floor than the ceiling: about 2.5% above 32.49, a price buyers have stepped in at before, and 5.7% below 35.18, where sellers have turned up before. That floor has held 3 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 3.5% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price INSIDE the cloud | periods 8/24/49 (93% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud thickness | 76% percentile |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price BELOW the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading inside its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 33.26 to 36.22. Inside the band those averages disagree with each other, so the indicator is not saying much either way. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | -6.0% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -20.2% |
| 126 days | -2.1% |
| 252 days | +62.4% |
| Below 252d high | 22.5% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Falling |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway The share price is close to the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is drifting down. The gap between the two has been closing. Neither is stretched far enough to stand out.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 14.9% of price |
| Recent tightest | 14.9% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 43.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 30.41 — 35.32 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 15% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Relative momentum leadership holds already satisfied Track 2 pathway: relative momentum leadership is already present; maintaining it supports upgrade pressure · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 EMA50 reclaim +3.8% gap is improving · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 Relative strength stabilisation state change relative momentum rank supports RS stabilisation · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 EMA20 continuation hold already above Track 2 pathway: price is above a rising EMA20; sustained hold would support momentum continuation · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Below its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
HAL: no binary-event flag. Near IV 37%, far IV 35% (ratio 1.03), implied move 4.6%.
| Implied volatility | 37% near (9d) · 35% far (65d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.03× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 38% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.96× |
| Implied move | ±4.6% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.57× |
| Skew | Flat (0.98×) |
| Call wall | 50.00 (+50.2% away) |
| Put wall | 32.00 (-3.9% away) |
| Gamma pin | 32.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 4.6% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Repair Attempt
Rotation health 79.7/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.
| Rotation health | 79.7 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 70.2 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Leading | 105.8 | 122.9 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 111.4 | 95.6 |
| Sector vs SPY | Weakening | 101.7 | 90.8 |
Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+5.0)
- Altman Z-score 5.80 (+5.0)
- Insider conviction score (+3.0)
- ROIC quality: 10.9% (+1.7)
- FCF margin quality: 13.2% (+4.0)
- FCF margin improving by -3.7 pts (+-1.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.066) (+2.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.05 -> -0.07) (+2.0)
- Track 2: MACD histogram state (0.31) (+5.0)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+15.0)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+5.0)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 0.5 (+3.0)
- Track 2: ADX 32.9 and flat (+12.0)
- Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.88 (+12.7)
- Track 2: price above EMA20 by 0.7% (+0.6)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 0.1% (+0.1)
- Track 2: MACD histogram acceleration 0.28 (+4.0)
- Track 2: RSI trend quality 53.2, 5-day change +23.5 (+12.0)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.59 (+4.7)
Negative signals
- Underperforming sector over 20 days
- Track 2: negative MACD regime (-8.0)
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.48x average)
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 2: weak VPT confirmation (-0.03)
- Track 2: price below EMA50 by 3.7%
- Track 2: EMA50 slope deteriorating -2.8%
- Gross margin improving by -3.7 pts (+-1.0)
- ROIC improving by -7.4 pts (+-2.0)
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 18.7/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.