HD
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -13.3% · range 297.51–423.42
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 12.0% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 15.5% |
| FCF / revenue | 9.9% |
| Gross margin | 33.1% |
| ROIC | 28.9% |
| Forward P/E | 21.3 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +31.5pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +18.2% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | -13.3% |
| Forward P/E compression | +15.4% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 13.63 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 16.11 |
| Trailing P/E | 25.20 |
| Forward P/E | 21.32 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.1%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (2.58–4.65, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q2 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | 41.77bn | +4.8% | 3.29bn | 3.30 | 2026-05-27 |
| 2026-02-01 (derived) | 38.20bn | -3.8% | 2.57bn | 2.58 | 2026-03-18 |
| 2025-11-02 | 41.35bn | +2.8% | 3.60bn | 3.62 | 2025-11-25 |
| 2025-08-03 | 45.28bn | +4.9% | 4.55bn | 4.58 | 2025-08-26 |
| 2025-05-04 | 39.86bn | +9.4% | 3.43bn | 3.45 | 2025-05-28 |
| 2025-02-02 (derived) | 39.70bn | +14.1% | 3.00bn | 3.02 | 2025-03-21 |
| 2024-10-27 | 40.22bn | +6.6% | 3.65bn | 3.67 | 2024-11-19 |
| 2024-07-28 | 43.17bn | +0.6% | 4.56bn | 4.60 | 2024-08-20 |
| 2024-04-28 | 36.42bn | — | 3.60bn | 3.63 | 2024-05-21 |
| 2024-01-28 (derived) | 34.79bn | — | 2.80bn | 2.80 | 2024-03-13 |
| 2023-10-29 | 37.71bn | — | 3.81bn | 3.81 | 2023-11-21 |
| 2023-07-30 | 42.92bn | — | 4.66bn | 4.65 | 2023-08-22 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±1.4% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.3% — filings move it 1.1× as much |
| Direction | 7 up, 5 down over 12 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | 2026-05-27 | +4.8% | +3.4% | +12.6% |
| 2025-11-02 | 2025-11-25 | +2.8% | +5.6% | -2.8% |
| 2025-08-03 | 2025-08-26 | +4.9% | -0.2% | -1.7% |
| 2025-05-04 | 2025-05-28 | +9.4% | -0.6% | -3.8% |
| 2024-10-27 | 2024-11-19 | +6.6% | -2.5% | -2.5% |
| 2024-07-28 | 2024-08-20 | +0.6% | +2.0% | +4.2% |
| 2024-04-28 | 2024-05-21 | -2.3% | -2.1% | +5.3% |
| 2023-10-29 | 2023-11-21 | -3.0% | +0.3% | +9.3% |
| 2023-07-30 | 2023-08-22 | -2.0% | +0.6% | -3.0% |
| 2023-04-30 | 2023-05-23 | -4.2% | +0.2% | -1.7% |
| 2022-10-30 | 2022-11-22 | +5.6% | +1.5% | +3.9% |
| 2022-07-31 | 2022-08-23 | +6.5% | -1.3% | -2.9% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Flat — little net change |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 996.0M as at 2026-05-03 |
| Change over 1 year | +0.2% |
| Change over 3 years | -1.7% |
| Public float | $371.80bn as at 2025-08-01 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 338.28 — 346.86 |
| Protective stop | 332.80 (Structure, 2.9% risk) |
| Support | 336.73 (2 touches, 2.0% away) |
| Resistance | 348.10 (1.4% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 1.4% below 348.10, where sellers have turned up before, and 2.0% above 336.73, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 2.9% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 7/20/41 (78% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud thickness | 5% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 340.27 to 342.22. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +1.7% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +10.6% |
| 126 days | -11.9% |
| 252 days | -11.4% |
| Below 252d high | 18.9% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway The share price is close to the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is going sideways. The gap between the two has been closing. Neither is stretched far enough to stand out.
Volatility
| State | Expanded out of a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 10.7% of price |
| Recent tightest | 6.7% (7 sessions ago, narrower than 93.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.60× |
| Band | 322.76 — 359.24 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 11% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 93% of the time. It has started moving again since, swinging about 1.6 times as widely as during that quiet spell. A stock that has been quiet tends to make its next move look big by comparison, simply because the recent bar was low.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger EMA20 reclaim +0.1% gap is improving · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 Relative momentum rank back above 0.45 repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 MACD histogram acceleration turns positive secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 Relative strength stabilisation state change relative momentum rank does not yet confirm RS improvement · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
HD: no binary-event flag. Near IV 40%, far IV 28% (ratio 1.42), implied move 5.0%.
| Implied volatility | 40% near (9d) · 28% far (65d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.42× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 30% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.33× |
| Implied move | ±5.0% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.73× |
| Skew | Flat (0.94×) |
- Term structure inverted (near 40% IV vs far 28% IV, ratio 1.42)
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 5.0% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Leadership Cooling
Rotation health 72.8/100; Positive Rotation.
| Rotation health | 72.8 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 58.3 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Improving | 85.2 | 110.1 |
| Stock vs SPY | Improving | 93.5 | 116.5 |
| Sector vs SPY | Leading | 112.5 | 121.1 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+5.0)
- Altman Z-score 7.66 (+6.0)
- Gross margin quality: 33.1% (+1.3)
- ROIC quality: 28.9% (+6.8)
- FCF margin quality: 9.9% (+3.0)
- FCF margin improving by -2.5 pts (+-1.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.021) (+1.0)
- Track 2: MACD histogram state (0.88) (+8.0)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+15.0)
- Track 2: positive MACD trend regime (+10.0)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+8.0)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 20.5 (+12.0)
- Track 2: ADX 20.6 and rising (+10.0)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 1.3% (+3.5)
- Track 2: RSI trend quality 61.3, 5-day change +8.0 (+6.4)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 1.5% (+1.2)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 1.2% (+2.9)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.57 (+4.5)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.85x average)
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.21)
- Track 2: price below EMA20 by 0.1%
- Track 2: MACD histogram deteriorating (-0.26)
- Track 2: weak VPT confirmation (0.00)
- Gross margin improving by -0.3 pts (+-1.0)
- ROIC improving by -3.3 pts (+-2.0)
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 19.1/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.