HII
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +21.9% · range 265.40–453.73
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 6.2% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 9.4% |
| FCF / revenue | 9.6% |
| Gross margin | 12.4% |
| ROIC | 9.1% |
| Forward P/E | 15.7 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +2.2pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +24.1% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +21.9% |
| Forward P/E compression | +19.4% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 16.79 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 20.84 |
| Trailing P/E | 19.46 |
| Forward P/E | 15.68 |
Revisions
Improving (+3.3%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Price and forward earnings growth are broadly in step; no strong valuation lean either way.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (2.56–6.87, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 3.10bn | +13.4% | 149.00m | 3.79 | 3.79 | +0.9% | 2026-05-05 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 3.48bn | +15.7% | 159.00m | 4.05 | 4.04 | +3.1% | 2026-02-05 |
| 2025-09-30 | 3.19bn | +16.1% | 145.00m | 3.68 | 3.68 | +8.5% | 2025-10-30 |
| 2025-06-30 | 3.08bn | +3.5% | 152.00m | 3.86 | — | — | 2025-07-31 |
| 2025-03-31 | 2.73bn | -2.5% | 149.00m | 3.79 | — | — | 2025-05-01 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 3.00bn | -5.4% | 123.00m | 3.12 | — | — | 2025-02-06 |
| 2024-09-30 | 2.75bn | -2.4% | 101.00m | 2.56 | — | — | 2024-10-31 |
| 2024-06-30 | 2.98bn | +6.8% | 173.00m | 4.38 | — | — | 2024-08-01 |
| 2024-03-31 | 2.81bn | — | 153.00m | 3.87 | — | — | 2024-05-02 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 3.18bn | — | 274.00m | 6.87 | — | — | 2024-02-01 |
| 2023-09-30 | 2.82bn | — | 148.00m | 3.70 | — | — | 2023-11-02 |
| 2023-06-30 | 2.79bn | — | 130.00m | 3.27 | — | — | 2023-08-03 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±5.9% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.3% — filings move it 4.6× as much |
| Direction | 4 up, 7 down over 11 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-05 | +13.4% | -12.1% | -10.6% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-30 | +16.1% | +7.9% | -4.1% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-31 | +3.5% | +4.4% | -2.9% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-01 | -2.5% | -0.1% | -7.1% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-10-31 | -2.4% | -24.5% | -2.0% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2024-08-01 | +6.8% | -5.9% | +2.1% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-05-02 | +4.9% | -11.1% | -1.0% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-11-02 | +7.2% | +5.9% | -0.8% |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-08-03 | +4.7% | -0.4% | -3.1% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-05-04 | +3.8% | +0.3% | +2.3% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-11-03 | +12.3% | -3.9% | -9.0% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Flat — little net change |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 39.3M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | +0.0% |
| Change over 3 years | -1.5% |
| Public float | $9.47bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 291.43 — 328.43 |
| Protective stop | 282.18 (Structure, 8.9% risk) |
| Support | 288.08 (2 touches, 13.4% away) |
| Resistance | 334.51 (2.4% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 2.4% below 334.51, where sellers have turned up before, and 13.4% above 288.08, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 8.9% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 5/16/31 (60% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR (fresh down cross, 2d ago) | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud thickness | 40% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price INSIDE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 299.07 to 311.85. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +16.7% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -2.0% |
| 126 days | -18.2% |
| 252 days | +22.6% |
| Below 252d high | 28.0% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extended |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway The share price is well above the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is going sideways. The gap between the two has been closing. Being stretched this far above trend measures how much room there is to fall back — it does not say the stock will stop rising.
Volatility
| State | Expanding |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 31.9% of price |
| Recent tightest | 16.8% (9 sessions ago, narrower than 46.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.90× |
| Band | 253.97 — 350.46 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 32% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Moderate |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway More shares change hands on the days this stock rises than on the days it falls. That is what you would expect to see if the rise is being driven by real buying rather than drifting up on a thin market.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
HII: no binary-event flag. Near IV 40%, far IV 36% (ratio 1.12), implied move 5.1%.
| Implied volatility | 40% near (9d) · 36% far (128d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.12× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 62% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.66× |
| Implied move | ±5.1% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.47× |
| Skew | Flat (1.10×) |
| Call wall | 490.00 (+49.9% away) |
| Put wall | 190.00 (-41.9% away) |
| Gamma pin | 490.00 |
- Term structure inverted (near 40% IV vs far 36% IV, ratio 1.12)
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 5.1% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Repair Attempt
Rotation health 60.4/100; Positive Rotation.
| Rotation health | 60.4 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 61.9 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 114.8 | 98.2 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 114.1 | 80.3 |
| Sector vs SPY | Improving | 87.2 | 105.9 |
Direction of travel: North-West / early recovery
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 7/9 (+10.0)
- Altman Z-score 2.85 (+2.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- ROIC quality: 9.1% (+1.2)
- FCF margin quality: 9.6% (+2.9)
- FCF margin improving by 6.2 pts (+1.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.046) (+1.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (0.01 -> -0.05) (+2.0)
- Relative Strength 17.4% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+10.0)
- Track 2: MACD histogram state (3.08) (+12.0)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+15.0)
- Track 2: positive MACD trend regime (+10.0)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+8.0)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+10.0)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.25 (+16.0)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 17.5 (+8.0)
- Track 2: ADX 35.5 and rising (+15.0)
- Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.62 (+3.9)
- Track 2: price above EMA20 by 5.4% (+4.5)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 3.6% (+8.0)
- Track 2: VPT strength 0.31 (+7.4)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 6.5% (+5.2)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 2.9% (+6.0)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.75 (+6.0)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.42x average)
- Track 2: Bearish MACD divergence
- Track 2: MACD histogram deteriorating (-2.42)
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 69.0, 5-day change -2.2
- Gross margin improving by -0.2 pts (+-1.0)
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 24.1/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.