IBEX
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +25.5% · range 26.40–42.00
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 10.0% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 16.7% |
| FCF / revenue | 8.2% |
| Gross margin | 29.9% |
| ROIC | 24.6% |
| Forward P/E | 10.1 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 10.8pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +14.7% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +25.5% |
| Forward P/E compression | +12.8% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 3.16 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 3.62 |
| Trailing P/E | 11.59 |
| Forward P/E | 10.10 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.0%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Price has moved further than forward earnings growth currently justifies — worth weighing against the rest of the entry case.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (0.33–0.89, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 164.41m | +16.8% | 13.32m | 0.89 | 0.91 | +4.3% | 2026-05-06 |
| 2025-12-31 | 164.22m | +16.7% | 12.22m | 0.83 | 0.87 | +8.7% | 2026-02-05 |
| 2025-09-30 | 151.18m | +16.5% | 12.04m | 0.82 | 0.90 | +20.0% | 2025-11-06 |
| 2025-06-30 (derived) | 147.14m | — | 9.60m | 0.61 | 0.87 | +21.8% | 2025-09-11 |
| 2025-03-31 | 140.74m | +11.0% | 10.47m | 0.73 | — | — | 2025-05-08 |
| 2024-12-31 | 140.68m | +6.1% | 9.27m | 0.56 | — | — | 2025-02-06 |
| 2024-09-30 | 129.72m | +4.1% | 7.53m | 0.43 | — | — | 2024-11-07 |
| 2024-03-31 | 126.80m | -3.6% | 10.31m | 0.57 | — | — | 2024-05-09 |
| 2023-12-31 | 132.63m | -4.8% | 6.08m | 0.33 | — | — | 2024-02-08 |
| 2023-09-30 | 124.61m | — | 7.42m | 0.39 | — | — | 2023-11-09 |
| 2023-03-31 | 131.56m | — | 11.28m | 0.59 | — | — | 2024-05-09 |
| 2022-12-31 | 139.32m | — | 9.27m | 0.49 | — | — | 2024-02-08 |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Growing — shares issued |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 15.0M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | +4.1% |
| Change over 3 years | -21.4% |
| Public float | $226.11m as at 2024-12-31 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 36.08 — 37.00 |
| Protective stop | 33.73 (Atr, 7.7% risk) |
| Support | 34.13 (2 touches, 7.3% away) |
| Resistance | 37.33 (1.9% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 1.9% below 37.33, where sellers have turned up before, and 7.3% above 34.13, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 7.7% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 8/24/48 (93% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud event | Fresh up breakout 6d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 76% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 33.20 to 35.48. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +2.1% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +17.7% |
| 126 days | +29.0% |
| 252 days | +24.3% |
| Below 252d high | 12.8% |
Trend context
| Position | Above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 8.0% of price |
| Recent tightest | 7.5% (2 sessions ago, narrower than 99.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.06× |
| Band | 34.73 — 37.61 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 8% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 99% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger MACD histogram above zero 0.04 gap is improving · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 MACD bullish crossover line/signal spread gap is improving · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 Positive 20-day momentum acceleration repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 EMA20 continuation hold already above Track 2 pathway: price is above a rising EMA20; sustained hold would support momentum continuation · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 +DI back above -DI secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Deteriorating rapidly
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
Binary-event risk flagged
IBEX: binary-event risk suspected -- Term structure inverted (near 76% IV vs far 54% IV, ratio 1.41); Implied move 15.2% is 1.03x the ATR-expected 14.7% over 23d. Options market is pricing a discrete catalyst; technical breakout signals are unreliable until it resolves.
| Implied volatility | 76% near (23d) · 54% far (114d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.41× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 28% |
| Implied vs historical | 2.70× — Options are priced well above what the stock has actually done |
| Implied move | ±15.2% by 2026-09-18 — Large relative to this stock's normal daily range |
| Implied move vs ATR | 1.03× |
| Skew | Call Skew (0.78×) |
| Call wall | 45.00 (+22.9% away) |
| Put wall | 25.00 (-31.8% away) |
| Gamma pin | 45.00 |
- Term structure inverted (near 76% IV vs far 54% IV, ratio 1.41)
- Implied move 15.2% is 1.03x the ATR-expected 14.7% over 23d
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 15.2% in either direction by 2026-09-18. The overall shape suggests they expect a one-off result that lands either well or badly, rather than a gradual drift.
Chain as at 2026-08-26. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Early Stock Rotation
Rotation health 77.8/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.
| Rotation health | 77.8 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 91.5 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Improving | 91.2 | 112.1 |
| Stock vs SPY | Improving | 91.2 | 112.1 |
Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+5.0)
- Altman Z-score 6.35 (+6.0)
- Gross margin quality: 29.9% (+1.0)
- ROIC quality: 24.6% (+5.6)
- FCF margin quality: 8.2% (+2.5)
- ROIC improving by 6.0 pts (+2.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.032) (+1.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.01 -> -0.03) (+2.0)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+2.0)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+10.0)
- Track 2: ADX 30.8 and flat (+12.0)
- Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.67 (+5.7)
- Track 2: price above EMA20 by 1.9% (+1.6)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 1.4% (+3.7)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 6.2% (+5.0)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 2.5% (+5.9)
- Track 2: constructive pullback within uptrend (+10)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.66 (+5.3)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak MACD line/signal structure (-5.0)
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.71x average)
- Track 2: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.20)
- Track 2: bearish DI spread (-13.5)
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 47.8, 5-day change -4.3
- Track 2: weak VPT confirmation (0.00)
- Gross margin improving by -0.0 pts (+-1.0)
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 24.1/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.