ILMN
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +127.7% · range 91.00–224.99
Score trends appear once the scores have been recorded on more than one trading day.
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 14.0% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 16.2% |
| FCF / revenue | 24.8% |
| Gross margin | 67.9% |
| ROIC | 23.5% |
| Forward P/E | 36.9 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 113.8pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +14.0% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +127.7% |
| Forward P/E compression | +12.2% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 5.35 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 6.10 |
| Trailing P/E | 42.03 |
| Forward P/E | 36.88 |
Takeaway Price has moved further than forward earnings growth currently justifies — worth weighing against the rest of the entry case.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-12.50–4.41, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | 1.09bn | +4.8% | 134.00m | 0.87 | 1.15 | +6.9% | 2026-05-04 |
| 2025-12-28 (derived) | 1.16bn | +5.0% | 334.00m | 2.14 | 1.15 | +6.9% | 2026-02-12 |
| 2025-09-28 | 1.08bn | +0.4% | 150.00m | 0.97 | 1.34 | +12.7% | 2025-10-31 |
| 2025-06-29 | 1.06bn | -4.8% | 235.00m | 1.50 | — | — | 2025-08-01 |
| 2025-03-30 | 1.04bn | -3.3% | 131.00m | 0.82 | — | — | 2025-05-09 |
| 2024-12-29 (derived) | 1.10bn | -1.6% | 186.00m | 1.17 | — | — | 2025-02-12 |
| 2024-09-29 | 1.08bn | -3.5% | 705.00m | 4.41 | — | — | 2024-11-06 |
| 2024-06-30 | 1.11bn | -5.4% | -1.99bn | -12.50 | — | — | 2024-08-07 |
| 2024-03-31 | 1.08bn | — | -126.00m | -0.79 | — | — | 2024-05-03 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 1.12bn | — | -176.00m | -1.11 | — | — | 2024-02-16 |
| 2023-10-01 | 1.12bn | — | -754.00m | -4.77 | — | — | 2023-11-13 |
| 2023-07-02 | 1.18bn | — | -234.00m | -1.48 | — | — | 2023-08-10 |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 154.0M as at 2026-03-29 |
| Change over 1 year | -3.1% |
| Change over 3 years | -2.5% |
| Public float | $9.20bn as at 2025-06-29 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 199.04 — 225.96 |
| Protective stop | 191.00 (Atr, 10.1% risk) |
| Support | 186.33 (6 touches, 20.7% away) |
| Resistance | — (— away) |
Takeaway The shares are about 20.7% above 186.33, a price buyers have stepped in at before. There is no ceiling to point to, because the stock is trading where it has not traded before and nobody has sold it at these levels. That floor has held 6 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 10.1% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 7/20/40 (77% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL (fresh up, 2d ago) |
| Cloud event | Fresh up breakout 5d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 34% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 201.65 to 206.19. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +16.5% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +49.7% |
| 126 days | +84.5% |
| 252 days | +125.6% |
| Below 252d high | 0.1% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension above Kalman fair trend; entry risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | Expanded out of a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 24.8% of price |
| Recent tightest | 10.1% (7 sessions ago, narrower than 95.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 2.46× |
| Band | 177.22 — 227.39 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 25% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 95% of the time. It has started moving again since, swinging about 2.5 times as widely as during that quiet spell. A stock that has been quiet tends to make its next move look big by comparison, simply because the recent bar was low.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Insider selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 45 |
| Shares sold | 1,422,964 |
| Value sold | $294.1m |
| Latest sell | 2026-08-21 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Sold Meister Keith A.Director | 4,528 | $952,918 |
| 2026-08-21 | Sold Meister Keith A.Director | 7,151 | $1,512,723 |
| 2026-08-21 | Sold Meister Keith A.Director | 13,050 | $2,775,082 |
| 2026-08-21 | Sold Meister Keith A.Director | 6,821 | $1,458,398 |
| 2026-08-21 | Sold Meister Keith A.Director | 13,668 | $2,933,700 |
| 2026-08-21 | Sold Meister Keith A.Director | 9,365 | $2,019,188 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
ILMN: no binary-event flag. Near IV 47%, far IV 50% (ratio 0.94), implied move 9.3%.
| Implied volatility | 47% near (23d) · 50% far (114d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.94× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 48% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.97× |
| Implied move | ±9.3% by 2026-09-18 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.51× |
| Skew | Flat (1.01×) |
| Call wall | 240.00 (+6.7% away) |
| Put wall | 170.00 (-24.4% away) |
| Gamma pin | 220.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 9.3% in either direction by 2026-09-18.
Chain as at 2026-08-26. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Stock Leadership Confirmed
Rotation health 100.0/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.
| Rotation health | 100.0 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 85.8 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Leading | 107.9 | 122.1 |
| Stock vs SPY | Leading | 111.9 | 122.6 |
| Sector vs SPY | Leading | 113.2 | 117.8 |
Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 7/9 (+20.0)
- Altman Z-score 9.70 (+10.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 67.9% (+17.6)
- ROIC quality: 23.5% (+15.8)
- FCF margin quality: 24.8% (+16.6)
- Gross margin improving by 2.5 pts (+2.0)
- ROIC improving by 46.1 pts (+10.0)
- FCF margin improving by 5.7 pts (+4.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.034) (+2.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (2.93) (+8.0)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.05 (+3.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 25.9 (+8.0)
- Track 1: ADX 25.3 and rising (+5.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.96 (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 9.9% (+0.1)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 5.7% (+5.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 3.57 (+10.0)
- Track 1: positive MACD regime (+3.0)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+10.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.10 (+2.1)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 17.8% (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 5.0% (+3.0)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.95 (+0.4)
- Regime convergence: ICHIMOKU_CLOUD_REVERSAL confidence 92.4/100 (STRONG) (+18.5)
Negative signals
- Track 1: RSI deterioration/extension 77.5, 5-day change +27.5
- Chase risk 77.6/100 (Exhaustion Risk): RSI 77.5, EMA20 9.9%, EMA50 17.8%, BB 0.95, distribution 4.5/100
- Chase risk 77.6/100 | Extension score 22.4/100 | Exhaustion Risk