INCY
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +48.0% · range 81.61–129.93
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| OCF / assets | 20.3% |
|---|---|
| FCF / revenue | 27.5% |
| Gross margin | 55.7% |
| ROIC | 30.6% |
| Forward P/E | 13.6 |
This company does not report capital expenditure in the standard filing tag, so free cash flow cannot be derived and FCF/assets is not shown — common for asset managers, REITs, insurers and utilities. OCF/assets is shown instead, and it is the other measure Brown Bear's testing found to survive. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 34.6pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +13.4% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +48.0% |
| Forward P/E compression | +11.8% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 7.83 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 8.88 |
| Trailing P/E | 15.42 |
| Forward P/E | 13.60 |
Revisions
Stable (+1.2%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Price has moved further than forward earnings growth currently justifies — worth weighing against the rest of the entry case.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-2.04–2.11, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 1.27bn | +20.9% | 303.33m | 1.47 | 1.81 | +29.4% | 2026-04-28 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 1.51bn | +27.8% | 299.28m | 1.49 | 1.80 | -8.5% | 2026-02-10 |
| 2025-09-30 | 1.37bn | +20.0% | 424.17m | 2.11 | 2.26 | +33.7% | 2025-10-28 |
| 2025-06-30 | 1.22bn | +16.5% | 405.00m | 2.04 | — | — | 2025-07-29 |
| 2025-03-31 | 1.05bn | +19.5% | 158.20m | 0.80 | — | — | 2025-04-29 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 1.18bn | +16.3% | 201.21m | 0.96 | — | — | 2025-02-10 |
| 2024-09-30 | 1.14bn | +23.8% | 106.46m | 0.54 | — | — | 2024-10-29 |
| 2024-06-30 | 1.04bn | +9.3% | -444.60m | -2.04 | — | — | 2024-07-30 |
| 2024-03-31 | 880.89m | — | 169.55m | 0.75 | — | — | 2024-04-30 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 1.01bn | — | 201.08m | 0.89 | — | — | 2024-02-13 |
| 2023-09-30 | 919.02m | — | 171.27m | 0.76 | — | — | 2023-10-31 |
| 2023-06-30 | 954.61m | — | 203.55m | 0.90 | — | — | 2023-08-01 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±4.2% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.4% — filings move it 3.0× as much |
| Direction | 8 up, 3 down over 11 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-28 | +20.9% | +3.5% | -7.7% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-28 | +20.0% | -3.1% | +18.3% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-29 | +16.5% | +10.5% | +7.5% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-04-29 | +19.5% | +5.3% | -1.0% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-10-29 | +23.8% | +12.5% | -1.2% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2024-07-30 | +9.3% | -5.1% | -0.5% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-04-30 | +8.9% | +0.7% | +3.8% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-10-31 | +11.6% | +4.2% | -8.0% |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-08-01 | +4.7% | +3.1% | -0.9% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-05-02 | +10.3% | -9.7% | -13.0% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-11-01 | +1.3% | +3.8% | -4.1% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Growing — shares issued |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 206.8M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | +4.4% |
| Change over 3 years | -8.3% |
| Public float | $11.20bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 107.79 — 121.37 |
| Protective stop | 103.76 (Atr, 9.4% risk) |
| Support | 115.14 (2 touches, 4.9% away) |
| Resistance | — (— away) |
Takeaway The shares are about 4.9% above 115.14, a price buyers have stepped in at before. There is no ceiling to point to, because the stock is trading where it has not traded before and nobody has sold it at these levels. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 9.4% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price INSIDE the cloud | periods 5/16/31 (60% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BEAR (fresh down, 4d ago) |
| Cloud thickness | 61% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading inside its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 118.57 to 121.58. Inside the band those averages disagree with each other, so the indicator is not saying much either way. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +5.1% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +21.8% |
| 126 days | +20.7% |
| 252 days | +52.5% |
| Below 252d high | 7.0% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension above Kalman fair trend; entry risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 12.0% of price |
| Recent tightest | 12.0% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 42.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 112.61 — 127.05 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 12% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger MACD repair streak continuation 4 improving bars MACD histogram has improved for 4 consecutive sessions · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 MACD bullish crossover repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 Positive 20-day momentum acceleration secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 Relative strength stabilisation state change relative momentum rank supports RS stabilisation · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
no listed options chain
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Stock Rotation Headwind
Rotation health 19.8/100; Severe Rotation Headwind.
| Rotation health | 19.8 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 83.6 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Lagging | 74.7 | 92.6 |
| Stock vs SPY | Lagging | 79.8 | 95.3 |
| Sector vs SPY | Improving | 86.4 | 102.1 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 7/9 (+20.0)
- Altman Z-score 16.45 (+10.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 55.7% (+13.1)
- ROIC quality: 30.6% (+22.0)
- FCF margin quality: 27.5% (+18.3)
- ROIC improving by 22.2 pts (+10.0)
- FCF margin improving by 19.6 pts (+5.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.018) (+2.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 11.3 (+3.0)
- Track 1: ADX 20.8 and flat (+3.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.85 (+4.4)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 1.3% (+7.0)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 0.7% (+1.8)
- Track 1: RSI recovery 56.2, 5-day change +1.6 (+0.9)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.04 (+0.8)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 6.0% (+3.8)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 2.9% (+3.0)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.56 (+3.5)
Negative signals
- Track 1: weak MACD histogram (-0.52)
- Track 1: weak volume confirmation (0.52x average)
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 1: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.08)
- Track 1: weak MACD line/signal structure (-5.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope deteriorating (-3.0)
- Gross margin improving by -37.0 pts (+-3.0)
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.