INVH

Invitation Homes Inc. ·NYSE·Real Estate
29.78 live · 2026-08-12 15:59
35.5%
Brown Bear Score
48.1%
Business Conviction Score
46.3%
Position Health Score
0.0%
Chase Risk
Daily closes

Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -0.4% · range 24.39–31.29

The Businesswhat the company reports

Business & cash flow

OCF / assets 6.5%
FCF / revenue 44.2%
Gross margin 56.3%
ROIC 5.2%
Forward P/E 43.9

This company does not report capital expenditure in the standard filing tag, so free cash flow cannot be derived and FCF/assets is not shown — common for asset managers, REITs, insurers and utilities. OCF/assets is shown instead, and it is the other measure Brown Bear's testing found to survive. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).

Price vs Earnings growth

Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 37.4pp

Confidence 95.0/100

Takeaway Price has moved further than forward earnings growth currently justifies — worth weighing against the rest of the entry case.

Reported earnings

Next report 2026-10-27 after the close · consensus EPS 0.19

Q2 23 revenue: 600.37mQ2 23 net income: 137.86mQ2 23 EPS: 0.22Q3 23 revenue: 617.70mQ3 23 net income: 131.82mQ3 23 EPS: 0.21Q3 23Q4 23 revenue: 624.32mQ4 23 net income: 129.55mQ4 23 EPS: 0.21Q1 24 revenue: 646.04mQ1 24 net income: 142.35mQ1 24 EPS: 0.23Q1 24Q2 24 revenue: 653.45mQ2 24 net income: 73.19mQ2 24 EPS: 0.12Q3 24 revenue: 660.32mQ3 24 net income: 95.27mQ3 24 EPS: 0.16Q3 24Q4 24 revenue: 659.13mQ4 24 net income: 143.11mQ4 24 EPS: 0.23Q1 25 revenue: 674.48mQ1 25 net income: 165.75mQ1 25 EPS: 0.27Q1 25Q2 25 revenue: 681.40mQ2 25 net income: 140.89mQ2 25 EPS: 0.23Q3 25 revenue: 688.17mQ3 25 net income: 136.74mQ3 25 EPS: 0.22Q3 25Q4 25 revenue: 685.25mQ4 25 net income: 144.55mQ4 25 EPS: 0.24Q1 26 revenue: 43.74mQ1 26 net income: 160.51mQ1 26 EPS: 0.26Q1 26

Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (0.12–0.27, own scale) Derived Q4

12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.

Quarter endingRevenueYoY Net incomeEPS (GAAP) EPS reportedvs consensus Filed
2026-03-31 43.74m -93.5% 160.51m 0.26 0.26 +42.3% 2026-04-30
2025-12-31 (derived) 685.25m +4.0% 144.55m 0.24 0.24 +30.7% 2026-02-19
2025-09-30 688.17m +4.2% 136.74m 0.22 0.22 +19.2% 2025-10-30
2025-06-30 681.40m +4.3% 140.89m 0.23 2025-07-31

Earnings response

Typical move around a filing ±3.3%
On an ordinary two days ±1.1% — filings move it 3.0× as much
Direction 5 up, 6 down over 11 filings
Revenue change and price reaction, by quarter
Q3 22 revenue +11.6% year on yearQ3 22 filed 2022-10-27: price -4.9%Q1 23 revenue +10.8% year on yearQ1 23 filed 2023-05-02: price +0.1%Q1 23Q2 23 revenue +7.7% year on yearQ2 23 filed 2023-07-27: price -0.1%Q3 23 revenue +8.6% year on yearQ3 23 filed 2023-10-26: price -5.0%Q3 23Q1 24 revenue +9.5% year on yearQ1 24 filed 2024-05-01: price +0.9%Q2 24 revenue +8.8% year on yearQ2 24 filed 2024-07-25: price -5.3%Q2 24Q3 24 revenue +6.9% year on yearQ3 24 filed 2024-10-31: price -5.5%Q1 25 revenue +4.4% year on yearQ1 25 filed 2025-05-01: price +3.7%Q1 25Q2 25 revenue +4.3% year on yearQ2 25 filed 2025-07-31: price -3.3%Q3 25 revenue +4.2% year on yearQ3 25 filed 2025-10-30: price +2.5%Q3 25Q1 26 revenue -93.5% year on yearQ1 26 filed 2026-04-30: price +1.6%

Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing

Quarter endingFiledRevenue YoY Move around filingNext 20 sessions vs SPY
2026-03-31 2026-04-30 -93.5% +1.6% -3.3%
2025-09-30 2025-10-30 +4.2% +2.5% -1.0%
2025-06-30 2025-07-31 +4.3% -3.3% -0.6%
2025-03-31 2025-05-01 +4.4% +3.7% -9.7%

Share count

Diluted shares over time

Diluted shares Return since the previous filing

Direction Shrinking — shares retired
Diluted shares 606.2M as at 2026-03-31
Change over 1 year -1.2%
Change over 3 years -1.0%
Public float $20.10bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K)

History before 2018-03-31 is not shown. The share count jumps at that date by a ratio no ordinary issuance produces — a split whose factor is not in Brown Bear's split store — so earlier figures are on a different basis and cannot be compared with today's.

The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑

Price Levels

StrategyAt Support Zone
Reference band 29.03 — 29.91
Protective stop 28.18 (Atr, 4.4% risk)
Support 29.33 (3 touches, 1.6% away)
Resistance 29.90 (0.4% away)

Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 0.4% below 29.90, where sellers have turned up before, and 1.6% above 29.33, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 3 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 4.4% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.

Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.

Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)

Daily cloudPrice ABOVE the cloud | periods 7/20/41 (79% of classic 9/26/52)
LinesTenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL
Cloud thickness30% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through)
Chikou spanNot clear of price from 26 periods ago
Weekly cloudPrice ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored)

Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 29.56 to 29.76. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.

Trailing returns

21 days -1.1%
63 days +3.0%
126 days +12.6%
252 days -0.6%
Below 252d high4.8%

Trend context

PositionAt trend
ExtensionNormal
Trend slopeRising
Direction of travelConverging back to trend

Takeaway Price is near a rising Kalman fair trend, consistent with a healthy trend setup.

Volatility

State In a squeeze
Current band width4.6% of price
Recent tightest4.0% (7 sessions ago, narrower than 99.0% of its history)
Expansion since1.16×
Band 29.32 — 30.69

Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 5% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 99% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.

Historical trends

0255075100Share price 29.37–30.502026-07-032026-08-12
Position Health Business Conviction Share price

History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.

Repair Pathway

  1. Nearest Trigger MACD bullish crossover repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
  2. Trigger 2 EMA20 reclaim +0.8% gap is improving · Broadly stable
  3. Trigger 3 Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Deteriorating
  4. Trigger 4 Bollinger recovery toward mid-band +0.11 band position price remains in the lower Bollinger zone; recovery toward mid-band would support repair · Broadly stable
  5. Trigger 5 Positive 20-day momentum acceleration secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Broadly stable

Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑

Insider activity

ActivityNo filings in the window
Buy filings0
Sell filings0

Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.

Volume confirmation

Volume-price trend Below its signal line
Confirmation Marginal

No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.

Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.

Options Positioning

No binary-event flag

INVH: no binary-event flag. Near IV 20%, far IV 22% (ratio 0.90), implied move 2.5%.

Implied volatility 20% near (9d) · 22% far (65d)
Term structure 0.90× near/far
Historical volatility 18%
Implied vs historical 1.12×
Implied move ±2.5% by 2026-08-21
Implied move vs ATR 0.48×
Skew Flat (1.14×)
Call wall 37.50 (+25.9% away)
Put wall 20.00 (-32.8% away)
Gamma pin 25.00

Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 2.5% in either direction by 2026-08-21.

Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.

Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑

Relative Rotation

ImprovingLeadingLaggingWeakeningvs sectorvs SPYsector vs SPYRS-Ratio →RS-Momentum →

Mixed Rotation Phase

Rotation health 46.1/100; Mixed Rotation.

Rotation health 46.1
Rotation strength 85.6
LegQuadrantRS-RatioRS-Mom
Stock vs sector Leading 103.0 118.1
Stock vs SPY Lagging 73.8 87.6
Sector vs SPY Lagging 80.6 83.3

Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership

Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.

News Headlines

  1. Loading headlines\u2026

Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.

Detailed Scoring

Positive signals

  • Piotroski F-score 6/9 (+15.0)
  • Altman Z-score 2.65 (+3.0)
  • Gross margin quality: 56.3% (+13.3)
  • ROIC quality: 5.2% (+0.1)
  • FCF margin quality: 44.2% (+20.0)
  • FCF margin improving by 2.9 pts (+2.0)
  • High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.033) (+2.0)
  • Track 1: MACD histogram state (-0.03) (+3.0)
  • Track 1: bullish DI spread 8.5 (+3.0)
  • Track 1: ADX 31.1 and rising (+8.0)
  • Track 1: Bullish MACD divergence (+12.0)
  • Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 0.3% (+0.7)
  • Track 1: price above EMA50 by 0.5% (+0.3)
  • Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 0.9% (+1.7)
  • Track 1: EMA50 support proximity 0.5% (+4.5)
  • Track 1: EMA200 support proximity 3.5% (+4.6)
  • Track 1: Bollinger position 0.34 (+5.3)
  • Regime convergence: SUPPORT_RESISTANCE_BOUNCE confidence 60.0/100 (EMERGING) (+12.0)

Negative signals

  • Track 1: weak volume confirmation (0.47x average)
  • Track 1: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.03)
  • Weak relative momentum rank (0.33)
  • Track 1: price below EMA20 by 0.8%
  • Track 1: weak MACD line/signal structure (-8.0)
  • Track 1: RSI deterioration/extension 54.6, 5-day change -3.9
  • Track 1: weak VPT confirmation (-0.01)
  • Gross margin improving by -2.8 pts (+-3.0)

Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.