IONQ
Structural scoring is not meaningful for this business
Structural scoring uses gross margin, free cash flow and Altman Z — measures built for operating companies. For banks, insurers and asset managers they produce artifacts, because the cash-flow statement is dominated by lending and deposit flows rather than operations. Treat the structural and composite figures below as not comparable with other sectors, in either direction.
- Reported free cash flow is far outside the range an operating business can show, indicating balance-sheet rather than operating flows
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -1.8% · range 26.59–82.09
Score trends appear once the scores have been recorded on more than one trading day.
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | -4.6% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | -4.3% |
| FCF / revenue | -217.8% |
| Gross margin | 36.1% |
| ROIC | -9.9% |
| Forward P/E | -33.0 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Trailing EPS is negative (-3.68) and forward EPS is not positive, so a growth percentage does not exist
Confidence 35.0/100
Drivers
| Trailing price return (1y) | -1.8% |
|---|
Figures
| Trailing EPS | -3.68 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | -1.21 |
| Forward P/E | -32.95 |
Takeaway Low data confidence (limited analyst coverage) — treat this section as informational only.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-3.58–2.17, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 64.67m | +754.7% | 805.36m | 2.17 | 2026-05-07 |
| 2025-09-30 | 39.87m | +221.5% | -1.05bn | -3.58 | 2025-11-05 |
| 2025-06-30 | 20.69m | +81.8% | -176.84m | -0.70 | 2025-08-06 |
| 2025-03-31 | 7.57m | -0.2% | -32.25m | -0.14 | 2025-05-07 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 11.71m | +91.8% | -202.00m | -0.95 | 2025-02-26 |
| 2024-09-30 | 12.40m | +102.1% | -52.50m | -0.24 | 2024-11-06 |
| 2024-06-30 | 11.38m | +106.4% | -37.56m | -0.18 | 2024-08-07 |
| 2024-03-31 | 7.58m | +76.9% | -39.59m | -0.19 | 2024-05-10 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 6.11m | — | -41.90m | -0.21 | 2024-02-28 |
| 2023-09-30 | 6.14m | — | -44.81m | -0.22 | 2023-11-09 |
| 2023-06-30 | 5.51m | — | -43.72m | -0.22 | 2023-08-10 |
| 2023-03-31 | 4.29m | — | -27.34m | -0.14 | 2023-05-11 |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Growing — shares issued |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 371.2M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | +62.3% |
| Change over 3 years | +85.5% |
| Public float | $11.50bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
History before 2022-03-31 is not shown. The share count jumps at that date by a ratio no ordinary issuance produces — a split whose factor is not in Brown Bear's split store — so earlier figures are on a different basis and cannot be compared with today's.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 39.39 — 40.58 |
| Protective stop | 33.30 (Atr, 16.7% risk) |
| Support | 30.22 (3 touches, 32.5% away) |
| Resistance | 41.98 (4.9% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 4.9% below 41.98, where sellers have turned up before, and 32.5% above 30.22, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 3 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 16.7% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price BELOW the cloud | periods 8/22/44 (84% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud event | Fresh down breakout 0d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 11% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price BELOW the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading below its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 40.73 to 43.44. Being below it means the medium-term picture is pointing downwards, and that band is the first hurdle it would have to climb back through. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +18.2% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -38.8% |
| 126 days | +19.2% |
| 252 days | +3.5% |
| Below 252d high | 51.2% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway Price is near a rising Kalman fair trend, consistent with a healthy trend setup.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 29.0% of price |
| Recent tightest | 29.0% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 97.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 36.05 — 48.26 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 29% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 97% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger MACD bullish crossover repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 MACD histogram above zero 0.06 gap is broadly stable · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 Bollinger recovery toward mid-band +0.12 band position price remains in the lower Bollinger zone; recovery toward mid-band would support repair · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 MACD histogram acceleration turns positive secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Insider selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 3 |
| Shares sold | 9,329 |
| Value sold | $513.2k |
| Latest sell | 2026-06-18 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Sold TOLEDANO GABRIELLE BDirector | 2,757 | $151,663 |
| 2026-06-18 | Sold Chou Kathryn K.Director | 2,757 | $151,690 |
| 2026-06-18 | Sold Raymond John wDirector | 3,815 | $209,863 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
IONQ: no binary-event flag. Near IV 77%, far IV 81% (ratio 0.94), implied move 9.0%.
| Implied volatility | 77% near (8d) · 81% far (85d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.94× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 85% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.90× |
| Implied move | ±9.0% by 2026-09-04 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.54× |
| Skew | Flat (0.93×) |
| Call wall | 50.00 (+18.4% away) |
| Put wall | 28.00 (-33.7% away) |
| Gamma pin | 50.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 9.0% in either direction by 2026-09-04.
Chain as at 2026-08-27. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Sector Headwind / Stock Mixed
Rotation health 39.0/100; Negative Rotation.
| Rotation health | 39.0 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 79.5 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 109.7 | 82.9 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 109.2 | 81.8 |
| Sector vs SPY | Weakening | 103.8 | 79.2 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 4/9 (+3.0)
- Altman Z-score 3.89 (+3.0)
- Insider conviction score (+3.0)
- Gross margin quality: 36.1% (+1.6)
- ROIC improving by 39.3 pts (+3.0)
- FCF margin improving by 27.6 pts (+2.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.035) (+1.0)
- Relative Strength 7.9% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+9.5)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+9.5)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.65 (+30.2)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 3.8 (+2.9)
- Track 2: ADX 49.6 and flat (+14.3)
- Track 2: VPT strength 0.00 (+0.1)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.33 (+2.5)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak MACD line/signal structure (-7.0)
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.66x average)
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.41)
- Track 2: price below EMA20 by 5.0%
- Track 2: EMA20 slope deteriorating -0.6%
- Track 2: MACD histogram deteriorating (-1.04)
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 50.6, 5-day change -16.1
- Track 2: price below EMA50 by 8.2%
- Track 2: EMA50 slope deteriorating -0.3%
- Gross margin improving by -16.1 pts (+-0.9)
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 15.7/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.