J
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -3.0% · range 107.27–164.44
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 5.4% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 6.1% |
| FCF / revenue | 5.7% |
| Gross margin | 22.1% |
| ROIC | 8.7% |
| Forward P/E | 17.6 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +181.0pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +178.1% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | -3.0% |
| Forward P/E compression | +64.0% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 2.97 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 8.26 |
| Trailing P/E | 48.95 |
| Forward P/E | 17.60 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.3%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (0.01–0.65, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 18. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-30 | 3.94bn | +70.9% | 48.59m | 0.28 | 2018-05-08 |
| 2017-12-29 | 2.75bn | +7.8% | 2.16m | 0.01 | 2018-02-07 |
| 2017-09-29 (derived) | 2.65bn | +0.5% | 94.14m | 0.65 | 2017-11-21 |
| 2017-06-30 | 2.51bn | -6.6% | 89.03m | 0.61 | 2017-08-08 |
| 2017-03-31 | 2.30bn | -17.2% | 50.02m | 0.34 | 2017-05-09 |
| 2016-12-30 | 2.55bn | -10.4% | 60.54m | 0.42 | 2017-02-08 |
| 2016-09-30 (derived) | 2.64bn | -15.3% | 29.64m | 0.20 | 2016-11-22 |
| 2016-07-01 | 2.69bn | -7.3% | 69.06m | 0.48 | 2016-08-09 |
| 2016-04-01 | 2.78bn | — | 65.25m | 0.45 | 2016-05-05 |
| 2016-01-01 | 2.85bn | — | 46.51m | 0.32 | 2016-02-03 |
| 2015-10-02 (derived) | 3.12bn | — | 29.86m | 0.20 | 2015-11-24 |
| 2015-06-26 | 2.91bn | — | 91.06m | 0.61 | 2015-07-31 |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 119.0M as at 2025-12-26 |
| Change over 1 year | -21.6% |
| Change over 3 years | -26.1% |
| Public float | $14.40bn as at 2025-03-28 (10-K) |
Counts are restated for the 1:1 split of 2024-09-30, which would otherwise read as a share issuance.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 132.65 — 146.10 |
| Protective stop | 132.71 (Structure, 4.8% risk) |
| Support | 134.83 (2 touches, 7.8% away) |
| Resistance | 152.53 (4.9% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 4.9% below 152.53, where sellers have turned up before, and 7.8% above 134.83, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 4.8% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 6/19/37 (71% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL (fresh up, 4d ago) |
| Cloud thickness | 88% percentile (thick — substantial structure) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 134.56 to 141.30. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +12.5% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +27.3% |
| 126 days | -3.8% |
| 252 days | -1.7% |
| Below 252d high | 11.6% |
Trend context
| Position | Above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway The share price is above the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is climbing. The gap between the two has been widening. Neither is stretched far enough to stand out.
Volatility
| State | Expanding |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 18.4% of price |
| Recent tightest | 11.1% (9 sessions ago, narrower than 57.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.65× |
| Band | 125.11 — 150.40 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 18% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
J: no binary-event flag. Near IV 31%, far IV 29% (ratio 1.06), implied move 3.9%.
| Implied volatility | 31% near (9d) · 29% far (65d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.06× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 29% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.06× |
| Implied move | ±3.9% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.45× |
| Skew | Call Skew (0.64×) |
| Call wall | 210.00 (+44.5% away) |
| Put wall | 95.00 (-34.6% away) |
| Gamma pin | 210.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 3.9% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Repair Attempt
Rotation health 59.3/100; Mixed Rotation.
| Rotation health | 59.3 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 56.4 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 114.5 | 96.1 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 112.6 | 85.7 |
| Sector vs SPY | Improving | 87.2 | 105.9 |
Direction of travel: North-West / early recovery
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+5.0)
- Altman Z-score 4.30 (+5.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 22.1% (+0.2)
- ROIC quality: 8.7% (+1.1)
- FCF margin quality: 5.7% (+1.7)
- FCF margin improving by -3.5 pts (+-1.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.035) (+1.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.02 -> -0.04) (+2.0)
- Relative Strength 6.7% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+10.0)
- Track 2: MACD histogram state (0.75) (+8.0)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+15.0)
- Track 2: positive MACD trend regime (+10.0)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+5.0)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+10.0)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.08 (+8.0)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 35.8 (+15.0)
- Track 2: ADX 53.1 and rising (+18.0)
- Track 2: price above EMA20 by 4.6% (+3.9)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 3.4% (+8.0)
- Track 2: RSI trend quality 69.2, 5-day change +0.8 (+0.6)
- Track 2: VPT strength 0.10 (+2.5)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 9.6% (+7.7)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 3.9% (+6.0)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.80 (+6.4)
- Regime convergence: ICHIMOKU_CLOUD_REVERSAL confidence 64.6/100 (EMERGING) (+12.9)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.43x average)
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.31)
- Gross margin improving by -2.6 pts (+-1.0)
- ROIC improving by -3.6 pts (+-2.0)
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 17.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.