JPM

JPMorgan Chase & Co. ·NYSE·Financial Services
365.22 live · 2026-08-12 15:59

Structural scoring is not meaningful for this business

Structural scoring uses gross margin, free cash flow and Altman Z — measures built for operating companies. For banks, insurers and asset managers they produce artifacts, because the cash-flow statement is dominated by lending and deposit flows rather than operations. Treat the structural and composite figures below as not comparable with other sectors, in either direction.

  • Cost of goods sold is not reported, so gross margin reads as 100%
  • Reported free cash flow is far outside the range an operating business can show, indicating balance-sheet rather than operating flows

Some scores are at the bottom of their range

This score sits at the bottom of the 0–100 range. The underlying calculation was negative, so the displayed value is a floor, not a measurement of zero.

  • Structural Score: displayed 0, underlying value -16.0
39.9% not comparable
Brown Bear Score
8.6% not comparable
Business Conviction Score
62.0%
Position Health Score
46.9%
Chase Risk
Daily closes

Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +24.7% · range 282.84–365.18

The Businesswhat the company reports

Business & cash flow

OCF / assets -3.3%
FCF / revenue -81.3%
Gross margin 100.0%
ROIC 1.3%
Forward P/E 14.6

This company does not report capital expenditure in the standard filing tag, so free cash flow cannot be derived and FCF/assets is not shown — common for asset managers, REITs, insurers and utilities. OCF/assets is shown instead, and it is the other measure Brown Bear's testing found to survive. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).

Price vs Earnings growth

Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 18.5pp

Confidence 95.0/100

Takeaway Price has moved further than forward earnings growth currently justifies — worth weighing against the rest of the entry case.

Reported earnings

Next report 2026-10-13 · consensus EPS 5.90

Q1 12 revenue: 26.71bnQ1 12 net income: 5.38bnQ1 12 EPS: 1.40Q2 12 revenue: 22.18bnQ2 12 net income: 4.96bnQ2 12 EPS: 1.30Q2 12Q3 12 revenue: 25.15bnQ3 12 net income: 5.71bnQ3 12 EPS: 1.50Q4 12 revenue: 22.99bnQ4 12 net income: 5.23bnQ4 12 EPS: 1.37Q4 12Q1 13 revenue: 25.12bnQ1 13 net income: 6.53bnQ1 13 EPS: 1.70Q2 13 revenue: 25.21bnQ2 13 net income: 6.50bnQ2 13 EPS: 1.70Q2 13Q3 13 revenue: 23.12bnQ3 13 net income: -380.00mQ3 13 EPS: -0.10Q4 13 revenue: 23.16bnQ4 13 net income: 5.28bnQ4 13 EPS: 1.38Q4 13Q1 14 revenue: 22.99bnQ1 14 net income: 5.27bnQ1 14 EPS: 1.38Q2 14 revenue: 24.45bnQ2 14 net income: 5.99bnQ2 14 EPS: 1.57Q2 14Q3 14 revenue: 24.25bnQ3 14 net income: 5.57bnQ3 14 EPS: 1.47Q4 14 revenue: 22.51bnQ4 14 net income: 4.93bnQ4 14 EPS: 1.30Q4 14

Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-0.10–1.70, own scale) Derived Q4

12 quarters to Q4 14. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.

Quarter endingRevenueYoY Net incomeEPS (GAAP) Filed
2014-12-31 (derived) 22.51bn -2.8% 4.93bn 1.30 2015-02-24
2014-09-30 24.25bn +4.9% 5.57bn 1.47 2014-11-03
2014-06-30 24.45bn -3.0% 5.99bn 1.57 2014-08-04
2014-03-31 22.99bn -8.5% 5.27bn 1.38 2014-05-02

Share count

Diluted shares over time

Diluted shares Return since the previous filing

Direction Shrinking — shares retired
Diluted shares 2,720.2M as at 2026-03-31
Change over 1 year -6.6%
Change over 3 years -12.3%
Public float $794.43bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K)

The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑

Price Levels

StrategyFair Value Anchor
Reference band 346.58 — 367.01
Protective stop 341.29 (Atr, 4.3% risk)
Support 326.96 (3 touches, 11.7% away)
Resistance (— away)

Takeaway The shares are about 11.7% above 326.96, a price buyers have stepped in at before. There is no ceiling to point to, because the stock is trading where it has not traded before and nobody has sold it at these levels. That floor has held 3 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 4.3% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.

Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.

Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)

Daily cloudPrice ABOVE the cloud | periods 9/26/51 (99% of classic 9/26/52)
LinesTenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL
Cloud thickness100% percentile (thick — substantial structure)
Chikou spanAbove price from 26 periods ago
Weekly cloudPrice ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored)

Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 330.68 to 349.59. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.

Trailing returns

21 days +6.5%
63 days +19.8%
126 days +14.7%
252 days +26.1%
Below 252d high0.0%

Trend context

PositionFar above trend
ExtensionExtremely extended
Trend slopeRising
Direction of travelDiverging from trend

Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.

Volatility

State No recent compression
Current band width8.2% of price
Recent tightest7.4% (2 sessions ago, narrower than 65.0% of its history)
Expansion since1.11×
Band 338.05 — 367.03

Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 8% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.

Historical trends

0255075100Share price 334.53–362.042026-07-102026-08-12
Position Health Business Conviction Share price

History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.

Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑

Insider activity

ActivityNo filings in the window
Buy filings0
Sell filings0

Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.

Volume confirmation

Volume-price trend Above its signal line
Confirmation Marginal

No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.

Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.

Options Positioning

No binary-event flag

JPM: no binary-event flag. Near IV 19%, far IV 23% (ratio 0.85), implied move 2.4%.

Implied volatility 19% near (9d) · 23% far (65d)
Term structure 0.85× near/far
Historical volatility 19%
Implied vs historical 1.02×
Implied move ±2.4% by 2026-08-21
Implied move vs ATR 0.48×
Skew Put Skew (1.28×)
Call wall 375.00 (+2.7% away)
Put wall 285.00 (-22.0% away)
Gamma pin 330.00

Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 2.4% in either direction by 2026-08-21.

Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.

Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑

Relative Rotation

ImprovingLeadingLaggingWeakeningvs sectorvs SPYsector vs SPYRS-Ratio →RS-Momentum →

Leadership Cooling

Rotation health 45.9/100; Mixed Rotation.

Rotation health 45.9
Rotation strength 74.1
LegQuadrantRS-RatioRS-Mom
Stock vs sector Leading 110.6 107.8
Stock vs SPY Lagging 85.4 87.8
Sector vs SPY Lagging 76.4 91.0

Direction of travel: South-East / trend strong but momentum cooling

Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.

News Headlines

  1. Loading headlines\u2026

Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.

Detailed Scoring

Positive signals

  • Insider conviction score (+5.0)
  • Gross margin quality: 100.0% (+6.0)
  • FCF margin improving by -56.5 pts (+-1.0)
  • High earnings quality (accrual ratio 0.046) (+1.0)
  • Track 2: MACD histogram state (0.25) (+5.0)
  • Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+15.0)
  • Track 2: positive MACD trend regime (+10.0)
  • Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+5.0)
  • Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+10.0)
  • Track 2: bullish DI spread 13.5 (+8.0)
  • Track 2: ADX 17.6 and rising (+2.0)
  • Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.65 (+4.9)
  • Track 2: Hidden Bullish MACD divergence (+12.0)
  • Track 2: price above EMA20 by 3.5% (+2.9)
  • Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 1.5% (+3.9)
  • Track 2: RSI trend quality 66.5, 5-day change +0.3 (+0.3)
  • Track 2: VPT strength 0.05 (+1.2)
  • Track 2: price above EMA50 by 7.6% (+6.0)
  • Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 2.7% (+6.0)
  • Track 2: Bollinger position 0.94 (+7.5)

Negative signals

  • Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.61x average)
  • Track 2: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.03)
  • Chase risk 46.9/100 (Elevated Chase Risk): RSI 66.5, EMA20 3.5%, EMA50 7.6%, BB 0.94, distribution 4.0/100
  • Weak Piotroski F-score (2/9)
  • Below-average Altman Z-score (1.43)
  • ROIC improving by -0.1 pts (+-2.0)
  • Track 2 structural exemption: Z-Score 1.43 below the 1.8 insolvency-risk floor and structural score 0.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
  • Chase risk 46.9/100 | Extension score 53.1/100 | Elevated Chase Risk