KEYS
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +119.5% · range 158.51–373.34
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 11.3% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 12.5% |
| FCF / revenue | 26.2% |
| Gross margin | 62.1% |
| ROIC | 12.5% |
| Forward P/E | 29.7 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 27.9pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +91.6% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +119.5% |
| Forward P/E compression | +47.8% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 6.22 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 11.92 |
| Trailing P/E | 56.99 |
| Forward P/E | 29.74 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.0%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Price has moved further than forward earnings growth currently justifies — worth weighing against the rest of the entry case.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-0.42–2.22, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q2 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 1.72bn | +31.5% | 349.00m | 2.02 | 2026-06-04 |
| 2026-01-31 | 1.60bn | +23.3% | 281.00m | 1.62 | 2026-03-05 |
| 2025-10-31 (derived) | 1.42bn | +10.3% | 233.00m | 1.35 | 2025-12-17 |
| 2025-07-31 | 1.35bn | +11.1% | 191.00m | 1.10 | 2025-08-29 |
| 2025-04-30 | 1.31bn | +7.4% | 257.00m | 1.49 | 2025-06-03 |
| 2025-01-31 | 1.30bn | +3.1% | 169.00m | 0.97 | 2025-03-06 |
| 2024-10-31 (derived) | 1.29bn | -1.8% | -73.00m | -0.42 | 2024-12-17 |
| 2024-07-31 | 1.22bn | -11.9% | 389.00m | 2.22 | 2024-08-29 |
| 2024-04-30 | 1.22bn | — | 126.00m | 0.72 | 2024-05-31 |
| 2024-01-31 | 1.26bn | — | 172.00m | 0.98 | 2024-03-05 |
| 2023-10-31 (derived) | 1.31bn | — | 226.00m | 1.26 | 2023-12-15 |
| 2023-07-31 | 1.38bn | — | 288.00m | 1.61 | 2023-08-30 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±1.0% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.5% — filings move it 0.7× as much |
| Direction | 5 up, 7 down over 12 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 2026-06-04 | +31.5% | -5.9% | -7.9% |
| 2026-01-31 | 2026-03-05 | +23.3% | -9.5% | +9.3% |
| 2025-07-31 | 2025-08-29 | +11.1% | -1.6% | +2.5% |
| 2025-04-30 | 2025-06-03 | +7.4% | +1.7% | -1.5% |
| 2025-01-31 | 2025-03-06 | +3.1% | -0.4% | -6.5% |
| 2024-07-31 | 2024-08-29 | -11.9% | +1.0% | +1.0% |
| 2024-04-30 | 2024-05-31 | -12.5% | -1.1% | -4.8% |
| 2024-01-31 | 2024-03-05 | -8.8% | -0.2% | -2.4% |
| 2023-07-31 | 2023-08-30 | +0.4% | +0.8% | +4.0% |
| 2023-04-30 | 2023-05-31 | +2.9% | +0.5% | -2.8% |
| 2023-01-31 | 2023-03-03 | +10.5% | +1.0% | -0.9% |
| 2022-07-31 | 2022-08-30 | +10.4% | -1.5% | +4.7% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Flat — little net change |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 173.0M as at 2026-04-30 |
| Change over 1 year | +0.0% |
| Change over 3 years | -3.4% |
| Public float | $17.00bn as at 2025-04-30 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | At Support Zone |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 346.18 — 356.68 |
| Protective stop | 323.63 (Atr, 7.9% risk) |
| Support | 349.68 (2 touches, 1.4% away) |
| Resistance | 355.58 (0.3% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 0.3% below 355.58, where sellers have turned up before, and 1.4% above 349.68, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 7.9% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 7/21/42 (80% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL (fresh up cross, 2d ago) | cloud twist BULL (fresh up, 0d ago) |
| Cloud event | Fresh up breakout 5d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 12% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 334.26 to 336.08. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +10.5% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -3.2% |
| 126 days | +50.3% |
| 252 days | +114.9% |
| Below 252d high | 5.0% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension above Kalman fair trend; entry risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | Expanded out of a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 17.2% of price |
| Recent tightest | 9.8% (7 sessions ago, narrower than 96.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.75× |
| Range broken | Up |
| Band | 296.17 — 351.76 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 17% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 96% of the time. It has started moving again since, swinging about 1.8 times as widely as during that quiet spell, and it broke upwards. A stock that has been quiet tends to make its next move look big by comparison, simply because the recent bar was low.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
Binary-event risk flagged
KEYS: binary-event risk suspected -- Term structure inverted (near 76% IV vs far 50% IV, ratio 1.52); Implied move 9.5% is 1.01x the ATR-expected 9.4% over 9d. Options market is pricing a discrete catalyst; technical breakout signals are unreliable until it resolves.
| Implied volatility | 76% near (9d) · 50% far (65d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.52× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 46% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.65× — Options are priced well above what the stock has actually done |
| Implied move | ±9.5% by 2026-08-21 — Large relative to this stock's normal daily range |
| Implied move vs ATR | 1.01× |
| Skew | Flat (1.01×) |
| Call wall | 480.00 (+35.4% away) |
| Put wall | 290.00 (-18.2% away) |
| Gamma pin | 290.00 |
- Term structure inverted (near 76% IV vs far 50% IV, ratio 1.52)
- Implied move 9.5% is 1.01x the ATR-expected 9.4% over 9d
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 9.5% in either direction by 2026-08-21. The overall shape suggests they expect a one-off result that lands either well or badly, rather than a gradual drift.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Leadership Cooling
Rotation health 83.2/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.
| Rotation health | 83.2 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 75.0 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 115.3 | 88.5 |
| Stock vs SPY | Leading | 125.1 | 112.3 |
| Sector vs SPY | Leading | 113.6 | 115.9 |
Direction of travel: South-East / trend strong but momentum cooling
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+10.0)
- Altman Z-score 13.38 (+10.0)
- Insider conviction score (+3.0)
- Gross margin quality: 62.1% (+15.5)
- ROIC quality: 12.5% (+6.4)
- FCF margin quality: 26.2% (+17.5)
- FCF margin improving by 5.1 pts (+4.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.049) (+2.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.05 -> -0.05) (+5.0)
- Relative Strength 5.8% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+10.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (4.38) (+8.0)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.16 (+9.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 6.8 (+1.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.95 (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 7.6% (+1.9)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 2.4% (+5.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 1.90 (+10.0)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+8.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: RSI recovery 62.2, 5-day change +3.4 (+1.2)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.04 (+0.9)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 7.7% (+4.8)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 0.3% (+0.6)
- Regime convergence: SUPPORT_RESISTANCE_BOUNCE confidence 65.5/100 (EMERGING) (+13.1)
Negative signals
- Track 1: weak volume confirmation (0.56x average)
- Track 1: weak/falling ADX (14.9, falling)
- Chase risk 51.6/100 (Elevated Chase Risk): RSI 62.2, EMA20 7.6%, EMA50 7.7%, BB 1.05, distribution 4.4/100
- Gross margin improving by -0.8 pts (+-3.0)
- Chase risk 51.6/100 | Extension score 48.4/100 | Elevated Chase Risk