KKR
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -21.8% · range 83.88–149.34
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| OCF / assets | 0.1% |
|---|---|
| FCF / revenue | 2.5% |
| Gross margin | 54.8% |
| ROIC | 2.9% |
| Forward P/E | 15.6 |
This company does not report capital expenditure in the standard filing tag, so free cash flow cannot be derived and FCF/assets is not shown — common for asset managers, REITs, insurers and utilities. OCF/assets is shown instead, and it is the other measure Brown Bear's testing found to survive. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +149.2pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +127.4% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | -21.8% |
| Forward P/E compression | +56.0% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 3.25 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 7.39 |
| Trailing P/E | 35.48 |
| Forward P/E | 15.60 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.5%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net income Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 4.32bn | +38.8% | 405.23m | — | 1.39 | +6.6% | 2026-05-08 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 5.74bn | +76.1% | 1.15bn | — | 1.30 | +10.7% | 2026-02-27 |
| 2025-09-30 | 5.53bn | +15.3% | 900.36m | — | 1.41 | +7.7% | 2025-11-07 |
| 2025-06-30 | 5.09bn | +22.0% | 510.12m | — | — | — | 2025-08-08 |
| 2025-03-31 | 3.11bn | -67.8% | -185.92m | — | — | — | 2025-05-09 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 3.26bn | -26.4% | 1.13bn | — | — | — | 2025-02-28 |
| 2024-09-30 | 4.79bn | +44.5% | 600.55m | — | — | — | 2024-11-05 |
| 2024-06-30 | 4.17bn | +15.0% | 667.93m | — | — | — | 2024-08-09 |
| 2024-03-31 | 9.66bn | — | 682.21m | — | — | — | 2024-05-09 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 4.43bn | — | 1.04bn | — | — | — | 2024-02-29 |
| 2023-09-30 | 3.32bn | — | 1.49bn | — | — | — | 2023-11-09 |
| 2023-06-30 | 3.63bn | — | 861.71m | — | — | — | 2023-08-08 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±0.8% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.9% — filings move it 0.4× as much |
| Direction | 6 up, 6 down over 12 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-08 | +38.8% | -0.9% | -3.1% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-07 | +15.3% | +0.7% | +13.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-08 | +22.0% | -0.5% | -5.2% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-09 | -67.8% | +5.6% | -4.4% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-11-05 | +44.5% | +11.3% | +0.5% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2024-08-09 | +15.0% | +0.1% | +1.9% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-05-09 | +208.8% | +3.6% | +2.8% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-11-09 | +78.4% | +1.8% | +17.0% |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-08-08 | +998.7% | -0.4% | +0.2% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-05-10 | +211.5% | -0.8% | +9.6% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-11-08 | -58.5% | -3.9% | -10.0% |
| 2022-06-30 | 2022-08-05 | -89.5% | -0.8% | -2.5% |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 106.73 — 115.88 |
| Protective stop | 100.85 (Atr, 9.4% risk) |
| Support | 96.84 (4 touches, 19.1% away) |
| Resistance | 135.25 (17.3% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 17.3% below 135.25, where sellers have turned up before, and 19.1% above 96.84, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 4 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 9.4% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 6/19/37 (72% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud thickness | 18% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 102.39 to 103.47. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +14.2% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +18.3% |
| 126 days | +9.7% |
| 252 days | -21.7% |
| Below 252d high | 22.8% |
Trend context
| Position | Above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway The share price is above the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is going sideways. The gap between the two has been fairly steady. Neither is stretched far enough to stand out.
Volatility
| State | Expanding |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 20.7% of price |
| Recent tightest | 11.4% (9 sessions ago, narrower than 73.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.82× |
| Range broken | Up |
| Band | 92.30 — 113.64 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 21% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Moderate |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway More shares change hands on the days this stock rises than on the days it falls. That is what you would expect to see if the rise is being driven by real buying rather than drifting up on a thin market.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
KKR: no binary-event flag. Near IV 38%, far IV 37% (ratio 1.03), implied move 4.2%.
| Implied volatility | 38% near (7d) · 37% far (63d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.03× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 44% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.87× |
| Implied move | ±4.2% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.44× |
| Skew | Flat (1.12×) |
| Call wall | 120.00 (+4.1% away) |
| Put wall | 100.00 (-13.3% away) |
| Gamma pin | 100.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 4.2% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-14. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Repair Attempt
Rotation health 66.9/100; Positive Rotation.
| Rotation health | 66.9 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 68.1 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 121.3 | 98.4 |
| Stock vs SPY | Leading | 116.5 | 103.9 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 78.1 | 92.4 |
Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 4/9 (+3.0)
- Altman Z-score 3.77 (+3.0)
- Insider conviction score (+3.0)
- Gross margin quality: 54.8% (+3.5)
- FCF margin quality: 2.5% (+0.7)
- Gross margin improving by 37.0 pts (+2.0)
- FCF margin improving by -28.2 pts (+-1.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio 0.005) (+1.0)
- Relative Strength 10.7% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+10.0)
- Track 2: MACD histogram state (1.05) (+10.0)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+15.0)
- Track 2: positive MACD trend regime (+10.0)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+5.0)
- Track 2: volume expansion 1.26x average (+1.3)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+10.0)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.08 (+8.0)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 26.1 (+12.0)
- Track 2: ADX 22.3 and rising (+10.0)
- Track 2: Hidden Bullish MACD divergence (+12.0)
- Track 2: price above EMA20 by 10.6% (+8.8)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 3.3% (+8.0)
- Track 2: MACD histogram acceleration 0.50 (+4.0)
- Track 2: RSI trend quality 73.7, 5-day change +19.7 (+3.5)
- Track 2: VPT strength 0.29 (+6.9)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 14.7% (+11.8)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 3.4% (+6.0)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 1.08 (+8.0)
Negative signals
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.10)
- Chase risk 52.8/100 (Elevated Chase Risk): RSI 73.7, EMA20 10.6%, EMA50 14.7%, BB 1.08, distribution 4.4/100
- ROIC improving by -0.1 pts (+-2.0)
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 13.2/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
- Chase risk 52.8/100 | Extension score 47.2/100 | Elevated Chase Risk