KRYS

Krystal Biotech, Inc. ·Nasdaq Global Select
359.97 live · 2026-08-26 15:59
73.4%
Brown Bear Score
81.3%
Business Conviction Score
63.5%
Position Health Score
45.5%
Chase Risk
Daily closes

Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +144.9% · range 137.46–378.15

Score trends appear once the scores have been recorded on more than one trading day.

The Businesswhat the company reports

Business & cash flow

FCF / assets 14.2%
OCF / assets 15.1%
FCF / revenue 51.6%
Gross margin 94.6%
ROIC 13.1%
Forward P/E 38.3

FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).

Price vs Earnings growth

Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 127.3pp

Confidence 95.0/100

Takeaway Price has moved further than forward earnings growth currently justifies — worth weighing against the rest of the entry case.

Reported earnings

Next report 2026-11-02 before the open · consensus EPS 1.90

Q3 22 revenue: 0Q3 22 net income: -29.85mQ3 22 EPS: -1.17Q1 23 revenue: 0Q1 23 net income: -45.30mQ1 23 EPS: -1.76Q1 23Q2 23 revenue: 0Q2 23 net income: -33.21mQ2 23 EPS: -1.25Q3 23 revenue: 8.56mQ3 23 net income: 80.75mQ3 23 EPS: 2.79Q3 23Q1 24 revenue: 45.25mQ1 24 net income: 932.00kQ1 24 EPS: 0.03Q2 24 revenue: 70.28mQ2 24 net income: 15.57mQ2 24 EPS: 0.53Q2 24Q3 24 revenue: 83.84mQ3 24 net income: 27.18mQ3 24 EPS: 0.91Q1 25 revenue: 88.18mQ1 25 net income: 35.73mQ1 25 EPS: 1.20Q1 25Q2 25 revenue: 96.04mQ2 25 net income: 38.33mQ2 25 EPS: 1.29Q3 25 revenue: 97.80mQ3 25 net income: 79.36mQ3 25 EPS: 2.66Q3 25Q4 25 revenue: 107.11mQ4 25 net income: 51.40mQ4 25 EPS: 1.72Q1 26 revenue: 116.36mQ1 26 net income: 55.93mQ1 26 EPS: 1.83Q1 26

Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-1.76–2.79, own scale) Derived Q4

12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.

Quarter endingRevenueYoY Net incomeEPS (GAAP) EPS reportedvs consensus Filed
2026-03-31 116.36m +31.9% 55.93m 1.83 1.83 +26.3% 2026-05-04
2025-12-31 (derived) 107.11m 51.40m 1.72 1.70 +18.3% 2026-02-17
2025-09-30 97.80m +16.6% 79.36m 2.66 2.66 +140.2% 2025-11-03
2025-06-30 96.04m +36.6% 38.33m 1.29 2025-08-04

Share count

Diluted shares over time

Diluted shares Return since the previous filing

Direction Growing — shares issued
Diluted shares 30.5M as at 2026-03-31
Change over 1 year +2.1%
Change over 3 years +18.6%
Public float $3.50bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K)

The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑

Price Levels

StrategyCurrent Price Reasonable
Reference band 354.36 — 363.36
Protective stop 333.75 (Atr, 7.0% risk)
Support 324.90 (4 touches, 10.7% away)
Resistance 382.33 (6.3% away)

Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 6.3% below 382.33, where sellers have turned up before, and 10.7% above 324.90, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 4 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 7.0% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.

Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.

Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)

Daily cloudPrice ABOVE the cloud | periods 9/26/52 (99% of classic 9/26/52)
LinesTenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BULL
Cloud eventFresh up breakout 1d ago
Cloud thickness24% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through)
Chikou spanAbove price from 26 periods ago
Weekly cloudPrice ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored)

Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 339.78 to 345.04. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.

Trailing returns

21 days -1.2%
63 days +17.3%
126 days +32.0%
252 days +145.1%
Below 252d high4.9%

Trend context

PositionFar above trend
ExtensionExtremely extended
Trend slopeRising
Direction of travelDiverging from trend

Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.

Volatility

State No recent compression
Current band width15.9% of price
Recent tightest15.9% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 51.0% of its history)
Expansion since1.00×
Band 309.57 — 362.98

Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 16% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.

Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑

Insider activity

ActivityInsider selling
Buy filings0
Sell filings9
Shares sold26,000
Value sold$8.6m
Latest sell2026-08-14
FiledInsiderSharesValue
2026-08-14 Sold ROSSI DINO ADirector 341 $111,029
2026-08-14 Sold ROSSI DINO ADirector 2,287 $746,941

Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.

Volume confirmation

Volume-price trend Below its signal line
Confirmation Marginal

No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.

Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.

Options Positioning

No binary-event flag

KRYS: no binary-event flag. Near IV 41%, far IV 49% (ratio 0.83), implied move 8.2%.

Implied volatility 41% near (23d) · 49% far (86d)
Term structure 0.83× near/far
Historical volatility 51%
Implied vs historical 0.81×
Implied move ±8.2% by 2026-09-18
Implied move vs ATR 0.61×
Skew Put Skew (1.19×)
Call wall 470.00 (+30.6% away)
Put wall 130.00 (-63.9% away)
Gamma pin 290.00

Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 8.2% in either direction by 2026-09-18.

Chain as at 2026-08-26. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.

Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑

Relative Rotation

ImprovingLeadingLaggingWeakeningvs sectorvs SPYRS-Ratio →RS-Momentum →

Stock Leadership Confirmed

Rotation health 100.0/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.

Rotation health 100.0
Rotation strength 74.8
LegQuadrantRS-RatioRS-Mom
Stock vs sector Leading 108.2 122.5
Stock vs SPY Leading 108.2 122.5

Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership

Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.

News Headlines

  1. Loading headlines\u2026

Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.

Detailed Scoring

Positive signals

  • Piotroski F-score 6/9 (+15.0)
  • Altman Z-score 79.97 (+10.0)
  • Insider conviction score (+5.0)
  • Gross margin quality: 94.6% (+22.0)
  • ROIC quality: 13.1% (+6.9)
  • FCF margin quality: 51.6% (+20.0)
  • ROIC improving by 2.3 pts (+2.0)
  • FCF margin improving by 9.1 pts (+4.0)
  • High earnings quality (accrual ratio 0.003) (+2.0)
  • Track 1: MACD histogram state (3.27) (+8.0)
  • Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
  • Track 1: bullish DI spread 23.4 (+5.0)
  • Track 1: ADX 46.8 and rising (+10.0)
  • Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.97 (+5.0)
  • Track 1: Hidden Bullish MACD divergence (+15.0)
  • Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 5.3% (+3.7)
  • Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 1.5% (+3.8)
  • Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 2.38 (+10.0)
  • Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+8.0)
  • Track 1: MACD slope improving (+5.0)
  • Track 1: price above EMA50 by 6.9% (+4.3)
  • Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 0.8% (+1.7)
  • Track 1: Bollinger position 0.94 (+0.5)

Negative signals

  • Underperforming sector over 20 days
  • Track 1: RSI deterioration/extension 72.2, 5-day change +32.4
  • Track 1: weak VPT confirmation (-0.00)
  • Chase risk 45.5/100 (Elevated Chase Risk): RSI 72.2, EMA20 5.3%, EMA50 6.9%, BB 0.94, distribution 0.0/100
  • Chase risk 45.5/100 | Extension score 54.5/100 | Elevated Chase Risk