LUNR
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +80.8% · range 8.05–45.70
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | -7.4% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | -1.9% |
| FCF / revenue | -6.9% |
| Gross margin | 16.3% |
| ROIC | -15.6% |
| Forward P/E | -103.9 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Trailing EPS is negative (-0.91) and forward EPS is not positive, so a growth percentage does not exist
Confidence 35.0/100
Drivers
| Trailing price return (1y) | +80.8% |
|---|
Figures
| Trailing EPS | -0.91 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | -0.15 |
| Forward P/E | -103.94 |
Revisions
Rapidly Deteriorating (-210.0%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Low data confidence (limited analyst coverage) — treat this section as informational only.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-2.69–1.52, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 183.63m | +193.7% | -37.39m | -0.25 | -0.25 | -232.4% | 2026-05-15 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 43.31m | -21.3% | -39.88m | -0.35 | -0.23 | -214.6% | 2026-03-19 |
| 2025-09-30 | 50.99m | -12.8% | -6.84m | -0.06 | -0.06 | -21.2% | 2025-11-13 |
| 2025-06-30 | 50.31m | +21.5% | -25.18m | -0.21 | — | — | 2025-08-07 |
| 2025-03-31 | 62.52m | -14.4% | -11.40m | -0.11 | — | — | 2025-05-13 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 55.05m | — | -147.96m | -2.41 | — | — | 2025-03-25 |
| 2024-09-30 | 58.48m | +359.3% | -55.40m | -0.83 | — | — | 2024-11-15 |
| 2024-06-30 | 41.41m | +130.1% | 18.28m | 0.29 | — | — | 2024-08-13 |
| 2024-03-31 | 73.07m | +300.7% | -98.34m | -2.69 | — | — | 2024-05-14 |
| 2023-09-30 | 12.73m | — | 33.65m | 1.29 | — | — | 2023-11-13 |
| 2023-06-30 | 17.99m | — | 29.52m | 1.52 | — | — | 2023-08-14 |
| 2023-03-31 | 18.24m | — | -9.36m | -0.61 | — | — | 2023-05-15 |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Growing — shares issued |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 147.9M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | +38.1% |
| Public float | $1.30bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
History before 2025-03-31 is not shown. The share count jumps at that date by a ratio no ordinary issuance produces — a split whose factor is not in Brown Bear's split store — so earlier figures are on a different basis and cannot be compared with today's.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 15.87 — 16.27 |
| Protective stop | 12.67 (Atr, 21.2% risk) |
| Support | — (0 touches, — away) |
| Resistance | 19.13 (18.7% away) |
Takeaway The shares are about 18.7% below 19.13, where sellers have turned up before. There is no floor to point to in the recent record. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 21.2% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price BELOW the cloud | periods 7/21/42 (81% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BEAR (fresh down, 1d ago) |
| Cloud event | Fresh down breakout 2d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 23% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price BELOW the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading below its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 16.56 to 16.89. Being below it means the medium-term picture is pointing downwards, and that band is the first hurdle it would have to climb back through. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +30.2% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -60.1% |
| 126 days | +1.4% |
| 252 days | +81.8% |
| Below 252d high | 64.7% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway Price is near a rising Kalman fair trend, consistent with a healthy trend setup.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 56.8% of price |
| Recent tightest | 48.1% (9 sessions ago, narrower than 62.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.18× |
| Band | 11.69 — 20.97 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 57% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Relative momentum leadership holds already satisfied Track 2 pathway: relative momentum leadership is already present; maintaining it supports upgrade pressure · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 EMA20 reclaim +4.5% gap is improving · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 MACD histogram acceleration turns positive repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 +DI back above -DI secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Deteriorating rapidly
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Insider selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 14 |
| Shares sold | 12,496,968 |
| Value sold | $166.6m |
| Latest sell | 2026-08-24 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Sold Ghaffarian Kamal SeyedDirector | 139,772 | $2,356,724 |
| 2026-08-24 | Sold Ghaffarian Kamal SeyedDirector | 2,137 | $37,782 |
| 2026-08-10 | Sold Ghaffarian Kamal SeyedDirector | 248,784 | $4,013,831 |
| 2026-08-10 | Sold Ghaffarian Kamal SeyedDirector | 18,664 | $311,362 |
| 2026-07-28 | Sold ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P. | 11,495,514 | $147,602,400 |
| 2026-07-27 | Sold Ghaffarian Kamal SeyedDirector | 47,303 | $624,404 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
LUNR: no binary-event flag. Near IV 94%, far IV 97% (ratio 0.97), implied move 11.8%.
| Implied volatility | 94% near (9d) · 97% far (114d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.97× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 84% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.12× |
| Implied move | ±11.8% by 2026-09-04 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.47× |
| Skew | Flat (0.97×) |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 11.8% in either direction by 2026-09-04.
Chain as at 2026-08-26. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Repair Attempt
Rotation health 48.1/100; Mixed Rotation.
| Rotation health | 48.1 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 46.8 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Weakening | 111.6 | 88.1 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 111.2 | 87.5 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 81.0 | 94.8 |
Direction of travel: North-West / early recovery
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Altman Z-score 2.77 (+2.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- Gross margin improving by 15.1 pts (+2.0)
- ROIC improving by 119.5 pts (+3.0)
- FCF margin improving by 18.3 pts (+2.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.091) (+2.0)
- Relative Strength 30.4% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+9.5)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+5.8)
- Track 2: positive MACD trend regime (+5.8)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+9.5)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.88 (+30.2)
- Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.94 (+13.8)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 0.7% (+1.1)
- Track 2: VPT strength 0.00 (+0.1)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.48 (+3.6)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.49x average)
- Track 2: bearish DI spread (-3.4)
- Track 2: weak/falling ADX (25.5, falling)
- Track 2: price below EMA20 by 4.3%
- Track 2: MACD histogram deteriorating (-0.79)
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 55.0, 5-day change -22.9
- Track 2: price below EMA50 by 11.6%
- Track 2: EMA50 slope deteriorating -0.8%
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 16.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.