MANH
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +0.6% · range 120.88–219.33
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 44.6% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 46.4% |
| FCF / revenue | 36.0% |
| Gross margin | 56.0% |
| ROIC | 73.7% |
| Forward P/E | 35.2 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +74.7pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +75.3% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +0.6% |
| Forward P/E compression | +43.0% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 3.50 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 6.14 |
| Trailing P/E | 61.68 |
| Forward P/E | 35.18 |
Revisions
Improving (+3.1%, 2 prior obs)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (0.63–1.03, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 282.21m | +7.4% | 49.30m | 0.82 | 1.24 | +9.1% | 2026-04-24 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 270.39m | +5.7% | 51.95m | 0.85 | 1.21 | +5.7% | 2026-02-04 |
| 2025-09-30 | 275.80m | +3.4% | 58.63m | 0.96 | 1.36 | +13.4% | 2025-10-24 |
| 2025-06-30 | 272.42m | +2.7% | 56.78m | 0.93 | — | — | 2025-07-25 |
| 2025-03-31 | 262.79m | +3.2% | 52.58m | 0.85 | — | — | 2025-04-25 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 255.80m | +7.4% | 48.02m | 0.77 | — | — | 2025-02-07 |
| 2024-09-30 | 266.68m | +11.8% | 63.78m | 1.03 | — | — | 2024-10-25 |
| 2024-06-30 | 265.32m | +14.8% | 52.77m | 0.85 | — | — | 2024-07-26 |
| 2024-03-31 | 254.55m | — | 53.80m | 0.86 | — | — | 2024-04-26 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 238.25m | — | 48.74m | 0.78 | — | — | 2024-02-06 |
| 2023-09-30 | 238.44m | — | 49.42m | 0.79 | — | — | 2023-10-26 |
| 2023-06-30 | 231.02m | — | 39.62m | 0.63 | — | — | 2023-07-28 |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 60.0M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | -2.4% |
| Change over 3 years | -4.3% |
| Public float | $11.79bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
History before 2013-12-31 is not shown. The share count jumps at that date by a ratio no ordinary issuance produces — a split whose factor is not in Brown Bear's split store — so earlier figures are on a different basis and cannot be compared with today's.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 194.42 — 216.97 |
| Protective stop | 187.80 (Atr, 8.7% risk) |
| Support | 188.47 (2 touches, 14.5% away) |
| Resistance | — (— away) |
Takeaway The shares are about 14.5% above 188.47, a price buyers have stepped in at before. There is no ceiling to point to, because the stock is trading where it has not traded before and nobody has sold it at these levels. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 8.7% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 9/26/51 (99% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud thickness | 100% percentile (thick — substantial structure) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 171.76 to 199.02. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +28.4% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +55.8% |
| 126 days | +59.6% |
| 252 days | +0.5% |
| Below 252d high | 1.6% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 18.9% of price |
| Recent tightest | 17.4% (1 sessions ago, narrower than 61.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.08× |
| Band | 180.53 — 218.22 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 19% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Insider selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 3 |
| Shares sold | 9,718 |
| Value sold | $1.9m |
| Latest sell | 2026-08-11 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Sold Clark Eric AndrewPresident & CEO | 3,000 | $593,280 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sold Hollembaek Linda T.Director | 1,579 | $299,821 |
| 2026-07-30 | Sold Gantt James StewartEVP, Professional Services | 5,139 | $1,004,831 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Moderate |
| Event | Distribution (2 session(s) ago) |
|---|---|
| Volume percentile | 91% |
| Range percentile | 25% |
| Close within the bar | 47% of range |
| Event level | 215.99 (held) |
The bearish mirror of this detector failed testing. A distribution event is reported as an observation, not as a warning that has been shown to work.
Takeaway More shares change hands on the days this stock rises than on the days it falls. That is what you would expect to see if the rise is being driven by real buying rather than drifting up on a thin market. There was also a day 2 session(s) ago when a great many shares changed hands and the price still failed to rise. Recorded as an observation only: Brown Bear tested this as a warning sign and it did not work.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
MANH: no binary-event flag. Near IV 38%, far IV 47% (ratio 0.80), implied move 7.6%.
| Implied volatility | 38% near (23d) · 47% far (142d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.80× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 37% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.03× |
| Implied move | ±7.6% by 2026-09-18 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.48× |
| Skew | Put Skew (1.43×) |
| Put wall | 100.00 (-53.7% away) |
| Gamma pin | 100.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 7.6% in either direction by 2026-09-18.
Chain as at 2026-08-26. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Sector Headwind / Stock Mixed
Rotation health 70.1/100; Positive Rotation.
| Rotation health | 70.1 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 75.5 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Leading | 108.2 | 107.9 |
| Stock vs SPY | Weakening | 108.7 | 97.6 |
| Sector vs SPY | Weakening | 103.8 | 79.2 |
Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 6/9 (+15.0)
- Altman Z-score 17.66 (+10.0)
- Gross margin quality: 56.0% (+13.2)
- ROIC quality: 73.7% (+30.0)
- FCF margin quality: 36.0% (+20.0)
- FCF margin improving by 7.7 pts (+4.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.202) (+10.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.10 -> -0.20) (+5.0)
- Relative Strength 9.0% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+10.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (0.50) (+6.0)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 20.5 (+5.0)
- Track 1: ADX 54.3 and falling (+5.0)
- Track 1: Hidden Bullish MACD divergence (+15.0)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 8.9% (+0.9)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 5.4% (+5.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 0.48 (+4.0)
- Track 1: positive MACD regime (+3.0)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+8.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: VPT strength 0.24 (+4.7)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 20.8% (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 8.6% (+3.0)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.94 (+0.5)
Negative signals
- Track 1: weak volume confirmation (0.53x average)
- Track 1: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.41)
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.35)
- Track 1: RSI deterioration/extension 79.2, 5-day change +11.0
- Chase risk 80.6/100 (Blowoff Distribution Risk): RSI 79.2, EMA20 8.9%, EMA50 20.8%, BB 0.94, distribution 6.4/100
- Chase risk 80.6/100 | Extension score 19.4/100 | Blowoff Distribution Risk