MDB

MongoDB ·Technology
444.76 live · 2026-08-27 14:55
15.0%
Brown Bear Score
13.3%
Business Conviction Score
33.2%
Position Health Score
23.9%
Chase Risk
Daily closes

Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +89.5% · range 214.34–472.29

Score trends appear once the scores have been recorded on more than one trading day.

The Businesswhat the company reports

Business & cash flow

FCF / revenue
Gross margin 0.0%
ROIC 0.0%
Forward P/E 55.3

No annual filing with both total assets and a cash-flow figure is cached for this name, so neither validated measure can be computed. FCF/revenue is shown instead, which is not the validated measure.

Price vs Earnings growth

Trailing EPS is negative (-0.37), so a growth percentage does not exist — forward EPS of 7.34 implies a swing from loss to profit

Confidence 35.0/100

Takeaway Low data confidence (limited analyst coverage) — treat this section as informational only.

The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑

Price Levels

StrategyFair Value Anchor
Reference band 344.15 — 408.14
Protective stop 324.51 (Atr, 13.7% risk)
Support 317.37 (2 touches, 28.0% away)
Resistance (— away)

Takeaway The shares are about 28.0% above 317.37, a price buyers have stepped in at before. There is no ceiling to point to, because the stock is trading where it has not traded before and nobody has sold it at these levels. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 13.7% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.

Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.

Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)

Daily cloudPrice INSIDE the cloud | periods 7/20/39 (75% of classic 9/26/52)
LinesTenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL
Cloud thickness74% percentile
Chikou spanAbove price from 26 periods ago
Weekly cloudPrice ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored)

Takeaway The stock is trading inside its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 382.44 to 418.39. Inside the band those averages disagree with each other, so the indicator is not saying much either way. Its shorter-term averages point the other way, so this is a mixed reading rather than a clear one.

Trailing returns

21 days +30.7%
63 days +37.9%
126 days +28.9%
252 days +85.9%
Below 252d high14.0%

Trend context

PositionFar above trend
ExtensionExtended
Trend slopeFlat
Direction of travelHolding its deviation

Takeaway The share price is well above the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is going sideways. The gap between the two has been fairly steady. Being stretched this far above trend measures how much room there is to fall back — it does not say the stock will stop rising.

Volatility

State No recent compression
Current band width38.8% of price
Recent tightest38.8% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 26.0% of its history)
Expansion since1.00×
Band 328.43 — 486.73

Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 39% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.

Repair Pathway

  1. Nearest Trigger Relative momentum leadership holds already satisfied Track 2 pathway: relative momentum leadership is already present; maintaining it supports upgrade pressure · Broadly stable
  2. Trigger 2 MACD bullish crossover repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Deteriorating rapidly
  3. Trigger 3 EMA20 continuation hold already above Track 2 pathway: price is above a rising EMA20; sustained hold would support momentum continuation · Broadly stable
  4. Trigger 4 MACD histogram above zero secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Deteriorating rapidly
  5. Trigger 5 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable

Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑

Insider activity

ActivityInsider selling
Buy filings0
Sell filings24
Shares sold34,130
Value sold$13.3m
Latest sell2026-08-17
FiledInsiderSharesValue
2026-08-17 Sold MERRIMAN DWIGHT ADirector 992 $445,388
2026-08-17 Sold MERRIMAN DWIGHT ADirector 1,652 $743,863

Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.

Volume confirmation

Volume-price trend Above its signal line
Confirmation Marginal

No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.

Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.

Options Positioning

Binary-event risk flagged

MDB: binary-event risk suspected -- Term structure inverted (near 130% IV vs far 65% IV, ratio 2.01); Implied move 16.3% is 1.07x the ATR-expected 15.3% over 9d. Options market is pricing a discrete catalyst; technical breakout signals are unreliable until it resolves.

Implied volatility 130% near (9d) · 65% far (86d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window
Term structure 2.01× near/far
Historical volatility 67%
Implied vs historical 1.95× — Options are priced well above what the stock has actually done
Implied move ±16.3% by 2026-09-04 — Large relative to this stock's normal daily range
Implied move vs ATR 1.07×
Skew Flat (1.03×)
Put wall 150.00 (-63.1% away)
Gamma pin 210.00
  • Term structure inverted (near 130% IV vs far 65% IV, ratio 2.01)
  • Implied move 16.3% is 1.07x the ATR-expected 15.3% over 9d

Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 16.3% in either direction by 2026-09-04. The overall shape suggests they expect a one-off result that lands either well or badly, rather than a gradual drift.

Chain as at 2026-08-26. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.

Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑

Relative Rotation

ImprovingLeadingLaggingWeakeningvs sectorvs SPYsector vs SPYRS-Ratio →RS-Momentum →

Sector Headwind / Stock Mixed

Rotation health 35.2/100; Negative Rotation.

Rotation health 35.2
Rotation strength 87.0
LegQuadrantRS-RatioRS-Mom
Stock vs sector Weakening 105.2 84.2
Stock vs SPY Weakening 104.8 83.2
Sector vs SPY Weakening 103.8 79.2

Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation

Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.

News Headlines

  1. Loading headlines\u2026

Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.

Detailed Scoring

Positive signals

  • Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+5.0)
  • Altman Z-score 3.00 (+3.0)
  • High earnings quality (accrual ratio 0.000) (+1.0)
  • Relative Strength 20.6% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+9.5)
  • Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+9.5)
  • Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.31 (+30.2)
  • Track 2: bullish DI spread 9.1 (+2.9)
  • Track 2: ADX 48.9 and falling (+9.5)
  • Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.95 (+14.2)
  • Track 2: price above EMA20 by 0.5% (+0.2)
  • Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 1.3% (+1.9)
  • Track 2: VPT strength 0.01 (+0.2)
  • Track 2: price above EMA50 by 9.0% (+4.2)
  • Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 8.0% (+3.5)
  • Track 2: Bollinger position 0.49 (+3.7)

Negative signals

  • Track 2: weak MACD histogram (-4.83)
  • Track 2: weak MACD line/signal structure (-7.0)
  • Track 2: MACD slope deteriorating (-3.7)
  • Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.66x average)
  • Track 2: MACD histogram deteriorating (-11.04)
  • Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 58.6, 5-day change -18.4
  • FCF margin unavailable: revenue missing from fundamentals cache
  • Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 9.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.

Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.