MRK
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +65.5% · range 77.60–132.92
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 9.0% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 12.0% |
| FCF / revenue | 25.3% |
| Gross margin | 75.9% |
| ROIC | 20.7% |
| Forward P/E | 13.9 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +598.1pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +663.6% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +65.5% |
| Forward P/E compression | +86.9% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 1.25 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 9.55 |
| Trailing P/E | 106.34 |
| Forward P/E | 13.93 |
Revisions
Stable (-1.0%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-2.35–2.32, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 16.29bn | +4.9% | -4.24bn | -1.72 | -1.28 | +16.0% | 2026-05-04 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 16.40bn | +5.0% | 2.96bn | 1.18 | 2.09 | +3.0% | 2026-02-24 |
| 2025-09-30 | 17.28bn | +3.7% | 5.79bn | 2.32 | 2.68 | +13.1% | 2025-11-05 |
| 2025-06-30 | 15.81bn | -1.9% | 4.43bn | 1.76 | — | — | 2025-08-05 |
| 2025-03-31 | 15.53bn | -1.6% | 5.08bn | 2.01 | — | — | 2025-05-02 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 15.62bn | +6.8% | 3.74bn | 1.47 | — | — | 2025-02-25 |
| 2024-09-30 | 16.66bn | +4.4% | 3.16bn | 1.24 | — | — | 2024-11-06 |
| 2024-06-30 | 16.11bn | +7.2% | 5.46bn | 2.14 | — | — | 2024-08-05 |
| 2024-03-31 | 15.78bn | — | 4.76bn | 1.87 | — | — | 2024-05-03 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 14.63bn | — | -1.23bn | -0.48 | — | — | 2024-02-26 |
| 2023-09-30 | 15.96bn | — | 4.75bn | 1.86 | — | — | 2023-11-03 |
| 2023-06-30 | 15.04bn | — | -5.97bn | -2.35 | — | — | 2023-08-07 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±0.9% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.2% — filings move it 0.7× as much |
| Direction | 6 up, 6 down over 12 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-04 | +4.9% | +0.9% | -2.8% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-05 | +3.7% | +2.3% | +14.0% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-05 | -1.9% | -0.5% | +3.2% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-02 | -1.6% | -0.5% | -12.7% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-11-06 | +4.4% | -0.5% | -0.2% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2024-08-05 | +7.2% | -3.5% | -1.3% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-05-03 | +8.9% | -0.5% | -1.4% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-11-03 | +6.7% | +1.4% | -3.0% |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-08-07 | +3.0% | +1.3% | +0.6% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-05-05 | -8.9% | +0.9% | -10.8% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-11-03 | +13.7% | -0.2% | +4.7% |
| 2022-06-30 | 2022-08-05 | +28.0% | +1.9% | +3.0% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 2,472.0M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | -2.3% |
| Change over 3 years | -3.1% |
| Public float | $198.05bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 123.32 — 133.58 |
| Protective stop | 123.83 (Structure, 3.6% risk) |
| Support | 125.43 (4 touches, 6.0% away) |
| Resistance | — (— away) |
Takeaway The shares are about 6.0% above 125.43, a price buyers have stepped in at before. There is no ceiling to point to, because the stock is trading where it has not traded before and nobody has sold it at these levels. That floor has held 4 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 3.6% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 7/21/43 (82% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud thickness | 88% percentile (thick — substantial structure) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 123.31 to 127.41. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +10.1% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +18.3% |
| 126 days | +13.5% |
| 252 days | +66.1% |
| Below 252d high | 0.0% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 6.4% of price |
| Recent tightest | 6.4% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 95.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 125.03 — 133.27 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 6% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 95% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger MACD histogram above zero 0.01 gap is improving · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 MACD bullish crossover line/signal spread gap is improving · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 Relative strength stabilisation state change relative momentum rank supports RS stabilisation · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 MACD repair streak continuation 3 improving bars MACD histogram has improved for 3 consecutive sessions · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Strong |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway More shares change hands on the days this stock rises than on the days it falls. That is what you would expect to see if the rise is being driven by real buying rather than drifting up on a thin market.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
MRK: no binary-event flag. Near IV 30%, far IV 29% (ratio 1.03), implied move 3.7%.
| Implied volatility | 30% near (9d) · 29% far (65d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.03× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 22% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.36× |
| Implied move | ±3.7% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.51× |
| Skew | Flat (0.93×) |
| Put wall | 65.00 (-51.1% away) |
| Gamma pin | 95.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 3.7% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Stock Rotation Headwind
Rotation health 19.9/100; Severe Rotation Headwind.
| Rotation health | 19.9 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 85.0 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Lagging | 91.7 | 83.0 |
| Stock vs SPY | Lagging | 85.6 | 90.0 |
| Sector vs SPY | Improving | 86.4 | 102.1 |
Direction of travel: South-West / deteriorating rotation
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 4/9 (+5.0)
- Altman Z-score 4.18 (+8.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 75.9% (+20.5)
- ROIC quality: 20.7% (+13.4)
- FCF margin quality: 25.3% (+16.9)
- FCF margin improving by -8.1 pts (+-3.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio 0.013) (+2.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (-0.01) (+3.0)
- Track 1: volume confirmation 1.15x average (+0.9)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 9.5 (+3.0)
- Track 1: ADX 24.0 and rising (+5.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.90 (+5.0)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 3.2% (+5.5)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 0.8% (+2.1)
- Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 0.35 (+4.0)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+3.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+1.0)
- Track 1: RSI recovery 59.4, 5-day change +7.3 (+3.3)
- Track 1: VPT strength 4.24 (+8.0)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 6.0% (+3.8)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 1.7% (+3.0)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.96 (+0.3)
Negative signals
- Gross margin improving by -0.4 pts (+-3.0)
- ROIC improving by -3.2 pts (+-5.0)
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.