MRNA
Structural scoring is not meaningful for this business
Structural scoring uses gross margin, free cash flow and Altman Z — measures built for operating companies. For banks, insurers and asset managers they produce artifacts, because the cash-flow statement is dominated by lending and deposit flows rather than operations. Treat the structural and composite figures below as not comparable with other sectors, in either direction.
- Reported free cash flow is far outside the range an operating business can show, indicating balance-sheet rather than operating flows
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +148.1% · range 22.36–81.80
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | -16.7% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | -15.2% |
| FCF / revenue | -97.5% |
| Gross margin | -66.0% |
| ROIC | -26.6% |
| Forward P/E | -13.2 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Trailing EPS is negative (-8.39) and forward EPS is not positive, so a growth percentage does not exist
Confidence 35.0/100
Drivers
| Trailing price return (1y) | +148.1% |
|---|
Figures
| Trailing EPS | -8.39 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | -4.83 |
| Forward P/E | -13.17 |
Revisions
Rapidly Deteriorating (-15.4%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Low data confidence (limited analyst coverage) — treat this section as informational only.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-9.53–0.57, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 389.00m | +260.2% | -1.34bn | -3.40 | -3.40 | +15.8% | 2026-05-01 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 678.00m | -29.8% | -826.00m | -2.12 | -2.11 | +21.7% | 2026-02-20 |
| 2025-09-30 | 1.02bn | -45.4% | -200.00m | -0.51 | -0.51 | +76.3% | 2025-11-06 |
| 2025-06-30 | 142.00m | -41.1% | -825.00m | -2.13 | — | — | 2025-08-01 |
| 2025-03-31 | 108.00m | -35.3% | -971.00m | -2.52 | — | — | 2025-05-01 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 966.00m | -65.6% | -1.12bn | -2.92 | — | — | 2025-02-21 |
| 2024-09-30 | 1.86bn | +1.7% | 13.00m | 0.03 | — | — | 2024-11-07 |
| 2024-06-30 | 241.00m | -29.9% | -1.28bn | -3.33 | — | — | 2024-08-01 |
| 2024-03-31 | 167.00m | — | -1.18bn | -3.08 | — | — | 2024-05-02 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 2.81bn | — | 217.00m | 0.57 | — | — | 2024-02-23 |
| 2023-09-30 | 1.83bn | — | -3.63bn | -9.53 | — | — | 2023-11-03 |
| 2023-06-30 | 344.00m | — | -1.38bn | -3.62 | — | — | 2023-08-03 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±5.3% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±3.2% — filings move it 1.7× as much |
| Direction | 6 up, 5 down over 11 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-01 | +260.2% | +3.0% | -9.3% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-06 | -45.4% | +4.2% | +12.1% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-01 | -41.1% | -6.5% | -13.9% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-01 | -35.3% | -3.3% | -6.6% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-11-07 | +1.7% | -9.6% | -3.6% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2024-08-01 | -29.9% | -27.4% | -16.4% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-05-02 | -91.0% | +12.1% | +15.0% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-11-03 | -45.6% | +1.2% | +3.8% |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-08-03 | -92.8% | -1.8% | +3.1% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-05-04 | -69.3% | +5.3% | -9.4% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-11-03 | -32.3% | +6.6% | +4.9% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Growing — shares issued |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 395.0M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | +2.3% |
| Change over 3 years | -2.5% |
| Public float | $9.90bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 62.71 — 64.31 |
| Protective stop | 54.38 (Atr, 14.4% risk) |
| Support | 53.24 (3 touches, 19.6% away) |
| Resistance | — (— away) |
Takeaway The shares are about 19.6% above 53.24, a price buyers have stepped in at before. There is no ceiling to point to, because the stock is trading where it has not traded before and nobody has sold it at these levels. That floor has held 3 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 14.4% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price INSIDE the cloud | periods 7/21/42 (81% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud thickness | 98% percentile (thick — substantial structure) |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading inside its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 59.80 to 67.61. Inside the band those averages disagree with each other, so the indicator is not saying much either way. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | -5.6% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +19.5% |
| 126 days | +51.6% |
| 252 days | +150.0% |
| Below 252d high | 22.2% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 20.5% of price |
| Recent tightest | 20.5% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 65.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 51.93 — 63.81 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 21% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
MRNA: no binary-event flag. Near IV 69%, far IV 77% (ratio 0.90), implied move 8.6%.
| Implied volatility | 69% near (9d) · 77% far (65d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.90× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 68% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.01× |
| Implied move | ±8.6% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.50× |
| Skew | Flat (1.00×) |
| Call wall | 65.00 (+2.1% away) |
| Put wall | 55.00 (-13.6% away) |
| Gamma pin | 55.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 8.6% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Early Stock Rotation
Rotation health 73.4/100; Positive Rotation.
| Rotation health | 73.4 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 68.9 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Improving | 95.0 | 118.6 |
| Stock vs SPY | Improving | 94.2 | 118.6 |
| Sector vs SPY | Improving | 86.4 | 102.1 |
Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Altman Z-score 8.69 (+6.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- FCF margin improving by -3.5 pts (+-1.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.077) (+2.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.04 -> -0.08) (+2.0)
- Track 2: MACD histogram state (0.68) (+8.0)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+18.0)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+5.0)
- Track 2: volume expansion 1.10x average (+0.5)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+10.0)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 5.6 (+3.0)
- Track 2: ADX 54.6 and flat (+15.0)
- Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.96 (+15.0)
- Track 2: Bullish MACD divergence (+4.0)
- Track 2: price above EMA20 by 7.3% (+6.1)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 0.5% (+1.4)
- Track 2: MACD histogram acceleration 1.36 (+12.0)
- Track 2: RSI trend quality 62.0, 5-day change +27.8 (+12.0)
- Track 2: VPT strength 0.03 (+0.7)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 8.2% (+6.6)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.99 (+7.9)
Negative signals
- Track 2: negative MACD regime (-8.0)
- Track 2: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.38)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope deteriorating -0.6%
- Chase risk 47.7/100 (Elevated Chase Risk): RSI 62.0, EMA20 7.3%, EMA50 8.2%, BB 0.99, distribution 2.0/100
- Weak Piotroski F-score (2/9)
- Gross margin improving by -120.3 pts (+-1.0)
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 3.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
- Chase risk 47.7/100 | Extension score 52.3/100 | Elevated Chase Risk