MSTR
Some scores are at the bottom of their range
This score sits at the bottom of the 0–100 range. The underlying calculation was negative, so the displayed value is a floor, not a measurement of zero.
- Structural Score: displayed 0, underlying value -6.3
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -64.9% · range 82.31–359.69
Score trends appear once the scores have been recorded on more than one trading day.
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | -0.1% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | -0.1% |
| FCF / revenue | -14.1% |
| Gross margin | 68.1% |
| ROIC | -8.9% |
| Forward P/E | 2.5 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Trailing EPS is negative (-96.31), so a growth percentage does not exist — forward EPS of 49.49 implies a swing from loss to profit
Confidence 35.0/100
Drivers
| Trailing price return (1y) | -64.9% |
|---|
Figures
| Trailing EPS | -96.31 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 49.49 |
| Forward P/E | 2.49 |
Takeaway Low data confidence (limited analyst coverage) — treat this section as informational only.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-44.79–32.67, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 124.30m | +11.9% | -12.54bn | -37.56 | -38.25 | -770.4% | 2026-05-06 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 122.99m | +1.9% | -12.44bn | -44.79 | -42.93 | -1,517.9% | 2026-02-19 |
| 2025-09-30 | 128.69m | +10.9% | 2.79bn | 8.83 | 8.42 | +1.3% | 2025-11-03 |
| 2025-06-30 | 114.49m | +2.7% | 10.02bn | 32.67 | — | — | 2025-08-05 |
| 2025-03-31 | 111.07m | -3.6% | -4.22bn | -16.44 | — | — | 2025-05-05 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 120.70m | -3.0% | -670.81m | -3.48 | — | — | 2025-02-18 |
| 2024-09-30 | 116.07m | -10.3% | -340.17m | -1.72 | — | — | 2024-10-31 |
| 2024-06-30 | 111.44m | -7.4% | -102.56m | -5.74 | — | — | 2024-08-06 |
| 2024-03-31 | 115.25m | — | -53.12m | -3.09 | — | — | 2024-05-01 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 124.48m | — | 89.13m | 5.38 | — | — | 2024-02-15 |
| 2023-09-30 | 129.46m | — | -143.44m | -10.09 | — | — | 2023-11-01 |
| 2023-06-30 | 120.40m | — | 22.24m | 1.38 | — | — | 2023-08-01 |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Growing — shares issued |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 333.9M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | +30.2% |
| Public float | $105.45bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
History before 2024-09-30 is not shown. The share count jumps at that date by a ratio no ordinary issuance produces — a split whose factor is not in Brown Bear's split store — so earlier figures are on a different basis and cannot be compared with today's.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 121.34 — 124.42 |
| Protective stop | 107.37 (Atr, 12.6% risk) |
| Support | 121.26 (2 touches, 1.6% away) |
| Resistance | 135.53 (10.0% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the floor than the ceiling: about 1.6% above 121.26, a price buyers have stepped in at before, and 10.0% below 135.53, where sellers have turned up before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 12.6% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 8/22/44 (85% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL (fresh up cross, 2d ago) | cloud twist BULL (fresh up, 1d ago) |
| Cloud event | Fresh up breakout 5d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 12% percentile (thin — little structure to fight through) |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price INSIDE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 105.23 to 108.90. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +28.1% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | -20.1% |
| 126 days | -9.2% |
| 252 days | -64.1% |
| Below 252d high | 65.8% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway The share price is close to the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is going sideways. The gap between the two has been closing. Neither is stretched far enough to stand out.
Volatility
| State | Expanded out of a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 43.9% of price |
| Recent tightest | 10.4% (6 sessions ago, narrower than 99.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 4.20× |
| Band | 80.23 — 125.36 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 44% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 99% of the time. It has started moving again since, swinging about 4.2 times as widely as during that quiet spell. A stock that has been quiet tends to make its next move look big by comparison, simply because the recent bar was low.
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Mixed buying and selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 3 |
| Sell filings | 13 |
| Shares bought | 11,111 |
| Shares sold | 17,150 |
| Value bought | $1.0m |
| Value sold | $1.9m |
| Latest buy | 2026-06-22 |
| Latest sell | 2026-08-25 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Sold Patten Jarrod MDirector | 925 | $114,700 |
| 2026-08-25 | Sold Patten Jarrod MDirector | 925 | $115,625 |
| 2026-08-25 | Sold Patten Jarrod MDirector | 925 | $117,475 |
| 2026-08-24 | Sold Patten Jarrod MDirector | 925 | $113,164 |
| 2026-08-07 | Sold Patten Jarrod MDirector | 1,950 | $197,925 |
| 2026-08-07 | Sold Patten Jarrod MDirector | 925 | $94,988 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway Slightly more shares change hands on rising days than on falling ones, but the gap is too small to read anything into.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
MSTR: no binary-event flag. Near IV 70%, far IV 76% (ratio 0.93), implied move 8.8%.
| Implied volatility | 70% near (9d) · 76% far (86d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.93× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 73% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.97× |
| Implied move | ±8.8% by 2026-09-04 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.58× |
| Skew | Call Skew (0.88×) |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 8.8% in either direction by 2026-09-04.
Chain as at 2026-08-26. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Stock Leadership Confirmed
Rotation health 80.1/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.
| Rotation health | 80.1 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 82.6 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Leading | 127.6 | 115.3 |
| Stock vs SPY | Leading | 126.2 | 114.7 |
| Sector vs SPY | Weakening | 103.8 | 79.2 |
Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Insider conviction score (+11.0)
- Gross margin quality: 68.1% (+4.8)
- FCF margin improving by -2.6 pts (+-0.9)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.061) (+2.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.04 -> -0.06) (+2.0)
- Relative Strength 22.0% vs sector: OUTPERFORMING (+9.5)
- Track 2: MACD histogram state (3.72) (+7.0)
- Track 2: MACD line/signal trend quality (+8.7)
- Track 2: positive MACD trend regime (+5.8)
- Track 2: MACD slope expanding (+4.6)
- Track 2: relative strength trend improving (+9.5)
- Track 2: 20-day momentum acceleration 0.25 (+24.2)
- Track 2: bullish DI spread 35.6 (+14.3)
- Track 2: ADX 37.8 and rising (+14.3)
- Track 2: price above EMA20 by 15.4% (+5.8)
- Track 2: EMA20 slope expanding 9.8% (+4.6)
- Track 2: MACD histogram acceleration 2.73 (+7.0)
- Track 2: RSI trend quality 71.1, 5-day change +14.2 (+6.7)
- Track 2: VPT strength 0.11 (+2.6)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 13.8% (+6.4)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 0.9% (+1.3)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.95 (+7.2)
- Regime convergence: ICHIMOKU_CLOUD_REVERSAL confidence 83.0/100 (STRONG) (+16.6)
Negative signals
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.73x average)
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.00)
- Track 2: Bearish MACD divergence
- Chase risk 45.7/100 (Elevated Chase Risk): RSI 71.1, EMA20 15.4%, EMA50 13.8%, BB 0.95, distribution 16.6/100
- Weak Piotroski F-score (2/9)
- Below-average Altman Z-score (1.63)
- Gross margin improving by -4.0 pts (+-0.9)
- ROIC improving by -1.6 pts (+-1.8)
- Track 2 structural exemption: Z-Score 1.63 below the 1.8 insolvency-risk floor and structural score 0.0/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
- Chase risk 45.7/100 | Extension score 54.3/100 | Elevated Chase Risk