MTL.TO
Some scores are at the bottom of their range
This score sits at the bottom of the 0–100 range. The underlying calculation was negative, so the displayed value is a floor, not a measurement of zero.
- Tactical Score: displayed 0, underlying value -51.6
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +86.1% · range 13.65–28.73
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / revenue | 14.3% |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 30.1% |
| ROIC | 7.8% |
| Forward P/E | 16.9 |
No annual filing with both total assets and a cash-flow figure is cached for this name, so neither validated measure can be computed. FCF/revenue is shown instead, which is not the validated measure.
Price vs Earnings growth
Price has run ahead of forward EPS growth by 49.9pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +36.2% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +86.1% |
| Forward P/E compression | +26.6% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 1.11 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 1.51 |
| Trailing P/E | 22.96 |
| Forward P/E | 16.87 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.0%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Price has moved further than forward earnings growth currently justifies — worth weighing against the rest of the entry case.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Current Price Reasonable |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 25.11 — 25.74 |
| Protective stop | 23.96 (Atr, 5.8% risk) |
| Support | 21.22 (2 touches, 20.1% away) |
| Resistance | — (— away) |
Takeaway The shares are about 20.1% above 21.22, a price buyers have stepped in at before. There is no ceiling to point to, because the stock is trading where it has not traded before and nobody has sold it at these levels. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 5.8% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price INSIDE the cloud | periods 7/20/41 (78% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud thickness | 48% percentile |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading inside its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 24.81 to 26.04. Inside the band those averages disagree with each other, so the indicator is not saying much either way. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | -9.5% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +16.8% |
| 126 days | +49.2% |
| 252 days | +84.0% |
| Below 252d high | 11.3% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway Price is near a rising Kalman fair trend, consistent with a healthy trend setup.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 10.8% of price |
| Recent tightest | 10.8% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 73.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 25.09 — 27.95 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 11% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Positive 20-day momentum acceleration repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 Relative momentum leadership holds already satisfied Track 2 pathway: relative momentum leadership is already present; maintaining it supports upgrade pressure · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 MACD bullish crossover secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 Relative strength stabilisation state change relative momentum rank supports RS stabilisation · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 Volume confirmation above 1.5x +0.50x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Neutral |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Below its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.
Options Positioning
No US-listed option chain for this symbol
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Leadership Cooling
Rotation health 42.7/100; Negative Rotation.
| Rotation health | 42.7 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 53.4 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Improving | 85.3 | 102.3 |
| Stock vs SPY | Improving | 84.5 | 107.4 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 81.0 | 94.8 |
Direction of travel: North-West / early recovery
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 4/9 (+3.0)
- Altman Z-score 3.57 (+3.0)
- Gross margin quality: 30.1% (+1.0)
- ROIC quality: 7.8% (+0.8)
- FCF margin quality: 14.3% (+4.3)
- Gross margin improving by 6.3 pts (+1.0)
- FCF margin improving by -0.6 pts (+-1.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.084) (+2.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.08 -> -0.08) (+2.0)
- Track 2: ADX 39.5 and falling (+8.0)
- Track 2: relative momentum rank 0.94 (+14.7)
- Track 2: price above EMA50 by 2.2% (+1.7)
- Track 2: EMA50 slope improving 2.1% (+5.0)
- Track 2: Bollinger position 0.14 (+1.1)
Negative signals
- Underperforming sector over 20 days
- Track 2: weak MACD histogram (-0.31)
- Track 2: weak MACD line/signal structure (-12.0)
- Track 2: MACD slope deteriorating (-5.0)
- Track 2: weak volume for momentum setup (0.91x average)
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 2: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.42)
- Track 2: bearish DI spread (-19.7)
- Track 2: price below EMA20 by 2.1%
- Track 2: EMA20 slope deteriorating -1.1%
- Track 2: RSI deterioration/overheating 28.7, 5-day change -0.4
- Track 2: weak VPT confirmation (-0.01)
- ROIC improving by -1.7 pts (+-2.0)
- Track 2 structural exemption: structural score 14.1/100 below the 25 quality floor; this is an unowned speculative candidate, so the universal SELL gate was skipped and the Track 2 momentum/RRG grid was allowed to evaluate instead. Structural quality here is weak by design for this kind of candidate -- treat any resulting BUY as higher risk than a Track 1 signal.
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.