NBIX
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +14.4% · range 123.10–185.50
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / revenue | 27.4% |
|---|---|
| Gross margin | 64.5% |
| ROIC | 16.4% |
| Forward P/E | 13.1 |
No annual filing with both total assets and a cash-flow figure is cached for this name, so neither validated measure can be computed. FCF/revenue is shown instead, which is not the validated measure.
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +56.8pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +71.3% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +14.4% |
| Forward P/E compression | +41.6% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 6.98 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 11.95 |
| Trailing P/E | 22.43 |
| Forward P/E | 13.10 |
Revisions
Stable (-1.8%, 2 prior obs)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | At Support Zone |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 152.06 — 156.67 |
| Protective stop | 144.14 (Atr, 6.6% risk) |
| Support | 153.60 (5 touches, 1.9% away) |
| Resistance | 157.60 (0.6% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 0.6% below 157.60, where sellers have turned up before, and 1.9% above 153.60, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 5 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 6.6% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price BELOW the cloud | periods 7/21/42 (81% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud thickness | 71% percentile |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price INSIDE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading below its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 160.42 to 167.45. Being below it means the medium-term picture is pointing downwards, and that band is the first hurdle it would have to climb back through. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | -14.4% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +0.5% |
| 126 days | +19.4% |
| 252 days | +16.9% |
| Below 252d high | 15.6% |
Trend context
| Position | Above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway The share price is above the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is going sideways. The gap between the two has been fairly steady. Neither is stretched far enough to stand out.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 20.3% of price |
| Recent tightest | 20.3% (0 sessions ago, narrower than 20.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 143.23 — 175.67 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 20% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger MACD histogram above zero 0.19 gap is improving · Improving
- Trigger 2 RSI recovery above 45 +0.1 pts gap is improving · Improving rapidly
- Trigger 3 MACD repair streak continuation 5 improving bars MACD histogram has improved for 5 consecutive sessions · Improving
- Trigger 4 MACD bullish crossover line/signal spread gap is improving · Improving
- Trigger 5 Positive 20-day momentum acceleration repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | Insider selling |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 9 |
| Shares sold | 40,188 |
| Value sold | $7.1m |
| Latest sell | 2026-07-28 |
| Filed | Insider | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Sold Norwalk Leslie VDirector | 1,250 | $227,508 |
| 2026-07-10 | Sold Delaet IngridChief Regulatory Officer | 4,367 | $790,514 |
| 2026-07-09 | Sold Lippoldt DarinChief Legal Officer | 10,000 | $1,796,014 |
| 2026-07-09 | Sold Delaet IngridChief Regulatory Officer | 8,433 | $1,507,135 |
| 2026-07-08 | Sold Delaet IngridChief Regulatory Officer | 2,737 | $488,672 |
| 2026-07-07 | Sold Delaet IngridChief Regulatory Officer | 3,401 | $607,305 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Below its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
NBIX: no binary-event flag. Near IV 26%, far IV 35% (ratio 0.72), implied move 5.1%.
| Implied volatility | 26% near (23d) · 35% far (86d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.72× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 45% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.57× |
| Implied move | ±5.1% by 2026-09-18 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.41× |
| Skew | Put Skew (1.64×) |
| Call wall | 190.00 (+21.3% away) |
| Put wall | 150.00 (-4.2% away) |
| Gamma pin | 160.00 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 5.1% in either direction by 2026-09-18.
Chain as at 2026-08-26. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Early Stock Rotation
Rotation health 86.1/100; Strong Rotation Tailwind.
| Rotation health | 86.1 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 78.8 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Improving | 88.5 | 116.2 |
| Stock vs SPY | Improving | 91.5 | 117.3 |
| Sector vs SPY | Leading | 113.2 | 117.8 |
Direction of travel: North-East / strengthening leadership
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+10.0)
- Altman Z-score 8.54 (+10.0)
- Insider conviction score (+5.0)
- Gross margin quality: 64.5% (+16.3)
- ROIC quality: 16.4% (+9.7)
- FCF margin quality: 27.4% (+18.2)
- FCF margin improving by 2.1 pts (+2.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.066) (+5.0)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: ADX 51.8 and rising (+10.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.60 (+1.7)
- Track 1: MACD histogram acceleration 1.30 (+10.0)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+3.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+1.0)
- Track 1: RSI recovery 44.9, 5-day change +24.7 (+12.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 support proximity 3.2% (+2.4)
- Track 1: EMA200 support proximity 4.3% (+4.0)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.41 (+4.7)
- Regime convergence: SUPPORT_RESISTANCE_BOUNCE confidence 75.5/100 (STRONG) (+15.1)
Negative signals
- Underperforming sector over 20 days
- Track 1: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.21)
- Track 1: bearish DI spread (-7.8)
- Track 1: Hidden Bearish MACD divergence
- Track 1: price below EMA20 by 1.5%
- Track 1: EMA20 slope deteriorating -2.0%
- Track 1: weak VPT confirmation (-0.08)
- Track 1: price below EMA50 by 3.2%
- Track 1: EMA50 slope deteriorating -2.4%
- Gross margin improving by -34.1 pts (+-3.0)
- ROIC improving by -2.7 pts (+-5.0)
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.