NSC
Some scores are at the bottom of their range
This score sits at the bottom of the 0–100 range. The underlying calculation was negative, so the displayed value is a floor, not a measurement of zero.
- Tactical Score: displayed 0, underlying value -45.3
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +19.9% · range 272.35–350.66
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 4.8% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 9.6% |
| FCF / revenue | 35.8% |
| Gross margin | 45.2% |
| ROIC | 10.7% |
| Forward P/E | 23.6 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +1.4pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +21.3% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +19.9% |
| Forward P/E compression | +18.1% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 11.79 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 14.30 |
| Trailing P/E | 28.85 |
| Forward P/E | 23.62 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.3%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Price and forward earnings growth are broadly in step; no strong valuation lean either way.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (0.23–4.85, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q2 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 3.46bn | +11.4% | 734.00m | 3.26 | 3.52 | +5.3% | 2026-07-23 |
| 2026-03-31 | 3.00bn | +0.2% | 547.00m | 2.43 | 2.65 | +4.5% | 2026-04-24 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 2.97bn | -1.7% | 644.00m | 2.86 | 3.22 | +15.4% | 2026-02-09 |
| 2025-09-30 | 3.10bn | +1.7% | 711.00m | 3.16 | 3.30 | +2.5% | 2025-10-23 |
| 2025-06-30 | 3.11bn | +2.2% | 768.00m | 3.41 | — | — | 2025-07-29 |
| 2025-03-31 | 2.99bn | -0.4% | 750.00m | 3.31 | — | — | 2025-04-23 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 3.02bn | -1.6% | 733.00m | 3.24 | — | — | 2025-02-10 |
| 2024-09-30 | 3.05bn | +2.7% | 1.10bn | 4.85 | — | — | 2024-10-22 |
| 2024-06-30 | 3.04bn | — | 737.00m | 3.26 | — | — | 2024-07-26 |
| 2024-03-31 | 3.00bn | — | 53.00m | 0.23 | — | — | 2024-04-24 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 3.07bn | — | 527.00m | 2.32 | — | — | 2024-02-05 |
| 2023-09-30 | 2.97bn | — | 478.00m | 2.11 | — | — | 2023-10-25 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±3.0% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.2% — filings move it 2.6× as much |
| Direction | 5 up, 7 down over 12 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-23 | +11.4% | +6.0% | — |
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-04-24 | +0.2% | -0.8% | -4.1% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-10-23 | +1.7% | -2.8% | +5.2% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-29 | +2.2% | -2.6% | -4.2% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-04-23 | -0.4% | +3.0% | -0.3% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-10-22 | +2.7% | +3.6% | -0.9% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2024-07-26 | +2.1% | +11.1% | -4.5% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-04-24 | -4.1% | -1.7% | -9.9% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-10-25 | -11.1% | -5.6% | +7.0% |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-07-27 | -8.3% | -0.1% | -6.8% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-04-26 | +7.4% | -3.0% | +5.3% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-10-26 | +17.2% | +3.6% | +7.6% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Flat — little net change |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 225.0M as at 2026-06-30 |
| Change over 1 year | -0.1% |
| Change over 3 years | -1.3% |
| Public float | $57.48bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 319.67 — 339.54 |
| Protective stop | 314.46 (Atr, 4.6% risk) |
| Support | 330.20 (3 touches, 2.3% away) |
| Resistance | 343.76 (1.7% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 1.7% below 343.76, where sellers have turned up before, and 2.3% above 330.20, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 3 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 4.6% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 7/21/43 (82% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL | cloud twist BULL |
| Cloud event | Fresh up breakout 0d ago |
| Cloud thickness | 52% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 328.02 to 336.41. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +2.8% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +8.8% |
| 126 days | +6.5% |
| 252 days | +21.4% |
| Below 252d high | 3.7% |
Trend context
| Position | Far above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extremely extended |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Diverging from trend |
Takeaway Extreme upside extension is still moving away from fair trend; chase risk is elevated.
Volatility
| State | In a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 6.3% of price |
| Recent tightest | 6.3% (1 sessions ago, narrower than 86.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.00× |
| Band | 327.53 — 348.69 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 6% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 86% of the time. When a stock goes quiet like this, its next move tends to look big by comparison. But quiet says nothing about which way it will go: Brown Bear tested calm-before-a-move as a reason to buy, and it did not work.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger RSI recovery above 50 repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst; Kalman divergence weakens pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Deteriorating rapidly
- Trigger 2 Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway; Kalman divergence weakens pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Deteriorating
- Trigger 3 MACD histogram acceleration turns positive secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops; Kalman divergence weakens pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 Relative strength stabilisation state change relative momentum rank supports RS stabilisation; Kalman divergence weakens pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 MACD histogram above zero 1.26 gap is deteriorating; Kalman divergence weakens pathway; chase risk lowers upgrade comfort · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Below its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
No absorption or distribution event in the recent window.
Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
NSC: no binary-event flag. Near IV 28%, far IV 18% (ratio 1.57), implied move 3.3%.
| Implied volatility | 28% near (8d) · 18% far (127d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 1.57× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 25% |
| Implied vs historical | 1.10× |
| Implied move | ±3.3% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.65× |
| Skew | Flat (1.13×) |
| Put wall | 260.00 (-23.0% away) |
| Gamma pin | 260.00 |
- Term structure inverted (near 28% IV vs far 18% IV, ratio 1.57)
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 3.3% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-13. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Repair Attempt
Rotation health 14.0/100; Severe Rotation Headwind.
| Rotation health | 14.0 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 67.2 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Lagging | 85.2 | 87.5 |
| Stock vs SPY | Lagging | 81.4 | 86.3 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 85.1 | 94.5 |
Direction of travel: North-West / early recovery
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 6/9 (+15.0)
- Altman Z-score 4.27 (+8.0)
- Gross margin quality: 45.2% (+9.2)
- ROIC quality: 10.7% (+4.9)
- FCF margin quality: 35.8% (+20.0)
- Gross margin improving by 7.7 pts (+4.0)
- FCF margin improving by 2.4 pts (+2.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.033) (+2.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.03 -> -0.03) (+5.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.62 (+1.9)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 0.7% (+7.4)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 3.2% (+2.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 1.5% (+3.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 support proximity 3.2% (+2.4)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.49 (+4.1)
- Regime convergence: TREND_EXHAUSTION confidence 60.0/100 (EMERGING) (-12.0)
Negative signals
- Track 1: weak MACD histogram (-1.26)
- Track 1: weak volume confirmation (0.66x average)
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 1: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.09)
- Track 1: bearish DI spread (-17.3)
- Track 1: MACD histogram deteriorating (-0.79)
- Track 1: weak MACD line/signal structure (-5.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope deteriorating (-5.0)
- Track 1: RSI deterioration/extension 33.0, 5-day change -19.1
- Track 1: weak VPT confirmation (-0.00)
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.