NWS
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · -1.1% · range 25.65–35.17
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| FCF / assets | 3.7% |
|---|---|
| OCF / assets | 6.3% |
| FCF / revenue | 13.7% |
| Gross margin | 57.2% |
| ROIC | 8.9% |
| Forward P/E | 22.0 |
FCF/assets and OCF/assets are the cash-flow measures Brown Bear's own testing found to survive; FCF/revenue is shown alongside for context. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +46.6pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +45.6% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | -1.1% |
| Forward P/E compression | +31.3% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 1.03 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 1.50 |
| Trailing P/E | 31.97 |
| Forward P/E | 21.96 |
Revisions
Strongly Improving (+16.1%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (-0.01–1.30, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The baseline is zero — bars below it are losses. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2.19bn | +8.8% | 89.00m | 0.16 | 0.21 | +12.1% | 2026-05-08 |
| 2025-12-31 | 2.36bn | +5.5% | 193.00m | 0.34 | 0.40 | +14.2% | 2026-02-06 |
| 2025-09-30 | 2.14bn | -16.8% | 112.00m | 0.20 | 0.22 | +17.0% | 2025-11-07 |
| 2025-06-30 (derived) | 1.63bn | -36.8% | 743.00m | 1.30 | — | — | 2025-08-06 |
| 2025-03-31 | 2.01bn | -17.1% | 103.00m | 0.18 | — | — | 2025-05-09 |
| 2024-12-31 | 2.24bn | -13.5% | 215.00m | 0.38 | — | — | 2025-02-06 |
| 2024-09-30 | 2.58bn | +3.1% | 119.00m | 0.21 | — | — | 2024-11-08 |
| 2024-06-30 (derived) | 2.58bn | +5.9% | 50.00m | 0.09 | — | — | 2024-08-13 |
| 2024-03-31 | 2.42bn | — | 30.00m | 0.05 | — | — | 2024-05-09 |
| 2023-12-31 | 2.59bn | — | 156.00m | 0.27 | — | — | 2024-02-08 |
| 2023-09-30 | 2.50bn | — | 30.00m | 0.05 | — | — | 2023-11-09 |
| 2023-06-30 (derived) | 2.43bn | — | -8.00m | -0.01 | — | — | 2023-08-15 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±3.0% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.3% — filings move it 2.4× as much |
| Direction | 9 up, 3 down over 12 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-08 | +8.8% | +1.0% | -0.0% |
| 2025-12-31 | 2026-02-06 | +5.5% | -4.1% | +6.0% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-07 | -16.8% | +6.5% | -3.1% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-09 | -17.1% | +1.4% | -6.3% |
| 2024-12-31 | 2025-02-06 | -13.5% | +2.0% | -1.6% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-11-08 | +3.1% | +1.6% | +0.5% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-05-09 | -1.0% | +3.7% | +4.8% |
| 2023-12-31 | 2024-02-08 | +2.6% | +7.5% | -1.3% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-11-09 | +0.8% | -2.3% | +1.2% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-05-12 | -1.8% | +12.2% | -1.6% |
| 2022-12-31 | 2023-02-10 | -7.2% | -8.7% | -9.9% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-11-09 | -1.0% | +0.8% | +4.9% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Shrinking — shares retired |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 555.7M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | -2.4% |
| Change over 3 years | -3.8% |
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | Fair Value Anchor |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 30.51 — 33.09 |
| Protective stop | 30.47 (Structure, 4.2% risk) |
| Support | 30.93 (2 touches, 6.5% away) |
| Resistance | 32.98 (0.1% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 0.1% below 32.98, where sellers have turned up before, and 6.5% above 30.93, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 2 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 4.2% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price ABOVE the cloud | periods 5/14/28 (53% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BULL (fresh up cross, 5d ago) | cloud twist BEAR (fresh down, 4d ago) |
| Cloud thickness | 76% percentile |
| Chikou span | Above price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading above its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 31.59 to 32.45. Being above it means the medium-term picture is pointing upwards, and that band is the first place the stock has recent support if it slips back. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | +5.7% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +8.3% |
| 126 days | +21.1% |
| 252 days | +0.2% |
| Below 252d high | 6.4% |
Trend context
| Position | Above trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Extended |
| Trend slope | Rising |
| Direction of travel | Holding its deviation |
Takeaway Positive Kalman trend with moderate extension; constructive for momentum but watch entry risk.
Volatility
| State | No recent compression |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 12.8% of price |
| Recent tightest | 10.4% (7 sessions ago, narrower than 48.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.23× |
| Band | 29.94 — 34.03 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 13% wide. That is normal for this stock, so there is nothing unusual to read into it either way.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Improving
- Trigger 2 Positive 20-day momentum acceleration repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 MACD histogram acceleration turns positive secondary repair secondary repair catalyst could add confirmation if the primary trigger develops · Broadly stable
- Trigger 4 Relative momentum rank above 0.55 +0.20 rank relative momentum leadership is not yet strong enough for the next action tier · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 Relative strength stabilisation state change relative momentum rank does not yet confirm RS improvement · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Above its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Strong |
| Event | Distribution (today) |
|---|---|
| Volume percentile | 90% |
| Range percentile | 13% |
| Close within the bar | 62% of range |
| Event level | 33.12 (held) |
The bearish mirror of this detector failed testing. A distribution event is reported as an observation, not as a warning that has been shown to work.
Takeaway More shares change hands on the days this stock rises than on the days it falls. That is what you would expect to see if the rise is being driven by real buying rather than drifting up on a thin market. There was also a day today when a great many shares changed hands and the price still failed to rise. Recorded as an observation only: Brown Bear tested this as a warning sign and it did not work.
Options Positioning
Binary-event risk flagged
NWS: binary-event risk suspected -- Term structure inverted (near 232% IV vs far 39% IV, ratio 5.97); Implied move 27.4% is 3.36x the ATR-expected 8.2% over 8d. Options market is pricing a discrete catalyst; technical breakout signals are unreliable until it resolves.
| Implied volatility | 232% near (8d) · 39% far (64d) — Term structure inverted — the market is pricing an event in the near window |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 5.97× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 37% |
| Implied vs historical | 6.33× — Options are priced well above what the stock has actually done |
| Implied move | ±27.4% by 2026-08-21 — Large relative to this stock's normal daily range |
| Implied move vs ATR | 3.36× |
| Skew | Put Skew (7.63×) |
| Call wall | 35.00 (+6.3% away) |
| Put wall | 25.00 (-24.1% away) |
| Gamma pin | 35.00 |
- Term structure inverted (near 232% IV vs far 39% IV, ratio 5.97)
- Implied move 27.4% is 3.36x the ATR-expected 8.2% over 8d
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs more for the next few weeks than for the next few months. Traders usually pay up like that when they know something is coming soon — results, a court ruling, a regulatory decision. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 27.4% in either direction by 2026-08-21. The overall shape suggests they expect a one-off result that lands either well or badly, rather than a gradual drift.
Chain as at 2026-08-13. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Repair Attempt
Rotation health 49.0/100; Mixed Rotation.
| Rotation health | 49.0 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 59.6 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Lagging | 98.9 | 87.9 |
| Stock vs SPY | Lagging | 96.5 | 91.8 |
| Sector vs SPY | Improving | 95.8 | 107.3 |
Direction of travel: North-West / early recovery
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 4/9 (+5.0)
- Altman Z-score 4.20 (+8.0)
- Gross margin quality: 57.2% (+13.6)
- ROIC quality: 8.9% (+3.4)
- FCF margin quality: 13.7% (+9.1)
- FCF margin improving by 2.1 pts (+2.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.043) (+2.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (0.01 -> -0.04) (+5.0)
- Track 1: MACD histogram state (0.05) (+3.0)
- Track 1: volume confirmation 1.92x average (+5.5)
- Track 1: bullish DI spread 30.4 (+8.0)
- Track 1: EMA20 reclaim distance 2.9% (+5.7)
- Track 1: EMA20 slope improving 1.7% (+4.3)
- Track 1: positive MACD regime (+3.0)
- Track 1: MACD line/signal repair quality (+8.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope improving (+3.0)
- Track 1: RSI recovery 68.2, 5-day change +14.8 (+3.0)
- Track 1: VPT strength 2.40 (+8.0)
- Track 1: price above EMA50 by 5.9% (+3.7)
- Track 1: EMA50 slope improving 2.4% (+3.0)
- Track 1: EMA50 support proximity 5.9% (+0.1)
- Track 1: EMA200 support proximity 9.1% (+0.6)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.73 (+2.2)
Negative signals
- Relative strength versus sector deteriorating
- Track 1: negative 20-day momentum acceleration (-0.04)
- Weak relative momentum rank (0.35)
- Gross margin improving by -42.8 pts (+-3.0)
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.