O
Daily closes · 1Y (252 sessions) · +8.6% · range 55.93–67.56
The Businesswhat the company reports
Business & cash flow
| OCF / assets | 5.5% |
|---|---|
| FCF / revenue | 69.5% |
| Gross margin | 92.7% |
| ROIC | 3.3% |
| Forward P/E | 36.7 |
This company does not report capital expenditure in the standard filing tag, so free cash flow cannot be derived and FCF/assets is not shown — common for asset managers, REITs, insurers and utilities. OCF/assets is shown instead, and it is the other measure Brown Bear's testing found to survive. Assets are from the latest annual filing (FY2025).
Price vs Earnings growth
Forward EPS growth has outpaced trailing price return by +15.2pp
Confidence 95.0/100
Drivers
| Forward EPS growth | +23.7% |
|---|---|
| Trailing price return (1y) | +8.6% |
| Forward P/E compression | +19.2% |
Figures
| Trailing EPS | 1.38 |
|---|---|
| Forward EPS | 1.71 |
| Trailing P/E | 45.36 |
| Forward P/E | 36.66 |
Revisions
Stable (+0.6%, 10 dates)
Takeaway Earnings growth is outpacing price — consistent with the stock not yet fully reflecting its improving forward estimates.
Reported earnings
Revenue Net incomeEPS (GAAP) (0.16–0.35, own scale) Derived Q4
12 quarters to Q1 26. Revenue and net income share one scale, so the gap between them is the margin. The line is GAAP EPS — it spans every quarter shown, where the reported figure only goes back as far as the consensus feed does.
| Quarter ending | Revenue | YoY | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | EPS reported | vs consensus | Filed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 1.55bn | +12.2% | — | — | 0.33 | -19.8% | 2026-05-07 |
| 2025-12-31 (derived) | 1.49bn | +11.0% | 296.08m | 0.33 | 0.32 | -19.9% | 2026-02-25 |
| 2025-09-30 | 1.47bn | +10.5% | 315.77m | 0.35 | 0.35 | -3.8% | 2025-11-04 |
| 2025-06-30 | 1.41bn | +5.3% | 196.92m | 0.22 | — | — | 2025-08-07 |
| 2025-03-31 | 1.38bn | +9.5% | 249.81m | 0.28 | — | — | 2025-05-06 |
| 2024-12-31 (derived) | 1.34bn | +24.5% | 199.61m | 0.23 | — | — | 2025-02-25 |
| 2024-09-30 | 1.33bn | +28.1% | 269.49m | 0.31 | — | — | 2024-11-05 |
| 2024-06-30 | 1.34bn | +31.4% | 259.39m | 0.30 | — | — | 2024-08-06 |
| 2024-03-31 | 1.26bn | — | 132.28m | 0.16 | — | — | 2024-05-07 |
| 2023-12-31 (derived) | 1.08bn | — | 218.41m | 0.32 | — | — | 2024-02-21 |
| 2023-09-30 | 1.04bn | — | 233.47m | 0.33 | — | — | 2023-11-07 |
| 2023-06-30 | 1.02bn | — | 195.41m | 0.29 | — | — | 2023-08-03 |
Earnings response
| Typical move around a filing | ±1.9% |
|---|---|
| On an ordinary two days | ±1.0% — filings move it 1.9× as much |
| Direction | 5 up, 6 down over 11 filings |
Revenue up year on year Revenue down Price move around the filing separate scales — a crossing means nothing
| Quarter ending | Filed | Revenue YoY | Move around filing | Next 20 sessions vs SPY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | 2026-05-07 | +12.2% | -3.3% | -2.9% |
| 2025-09-30 | 2025-11-04 | +10.5% | -3.6% | +3.2% |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-08-07 | +5.3% | +0.9% | +1.5% |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-05-06 | +9.5% | -0.4% | -6.8% |
| 2024-09-30 | 2024-11-05 | +28.1% | -3.9% | -3.8% |
| 2024-06-30 | 2024-08-06 | +31.4% | +1.9% | -2.1% |
| 2024-03-31 | 2024-05-07 | +33.5% | -1.2% | -3.9% |
| 2023-09-30 | 2023-11-07 | +24.1% | +1.5% | +2.5% |
| 2023-06-30 | 2023-08-03 | +25.8% | -1.9% | -5.6% |
| 2023-03-31 | 2023-05-04 | +17.0% | +3.2% | -7.8% |
| 2022-09-30 | 2022-11-03 | +70.2% | +3.2% | -7.0% |
Share count
Diluted shares Return since the previous filing
| Direction | Growing — shares issued |
|---|---|
| Diluted shares | 934.4M as at 2026-03-31 |
| Change over 1 year | +4.7% |
| Change over 3 years | +41.3% |
| Public float | $52.60bn as at 2025-06-30 (10-K) |
History before 2022-03-31 is not shown. The share count jumps at that date by a ratio no ordinary issuance produces — a split whose factor is not in Brown Bear's split store — so earlier figures are on a different basis and cannot be compared with today's.
The Pricewhat the chart is doingTop ↑
Price Levels
| Strategy | At Support Zone |
|---|---|
| Reference band | 60.95 — 62.80 |
| Protective stop | 58.99 (Atr, 4.7% risk) |
| Support | 61.57 (6 touches, 1.7% away) |
| Resistance | 62.64 (0.1% away) |
Takeaway The shares are nearer the ceiling than the floor: about 0.1% below 62.64, where sellers have turned up before, and 1.7% above 61.57, where buyers have stepped in before. That floor has held 6 times, which is how it was spotted. If someone bought at today's price and sold if it dropped through the level below, they would be about 4.7% out of pocket. That is all this figure means — an illustration of the risk, not a price to sell at.
Levels are computed from price structure. They describe where the engine locates support and extension — they are not targets, and not advice.
Ichimoku Cloud (Adaptive)
| Daily cloud | Price INSIDE the cloud | periods 5/14/27 (52% of classic 9/26/52) |
|---|---|
| Lines | Tenkan/Kijun BEAR (fresh down cross, 6d ago) | cloud twist BEAR |
| Cloud thickness | 82% percentile (thick — substantial structure) |
| Chikou span | Not clear of price from 26 periods ago |
| Weekly cloud | Price ABOVE the weekly cloud (context only, not scored) |
Takeaway The stock is trading inside its cloud — a shaded band drawn from several of its own moving averages, currently 62.58 to 64.21. Inside the band those averages disagree with each other, so the indicator is not saying much either way. Its shorter-term averages agree with that. The band is unusually wide at the moment, so it marks a broad zone rather than a single level.
Trailing returns
| 21 days | -1.9% |
|---|---|
| 63 days | +0.1% |
| 126 days | -2.1% |
| 252 days | +9.1% |
| Below 252d high | 7.4% |
Trend context
| Position | At trend |
|---|---|
| Extension | Normal |
| Trend slope | Flat |
| Direction of travel | Converging back to trend |
Takeaway The share price is close to the level its own longer-run trend suggests is fair, and that fair level is going sideways. The gap between the two has been closing. Neither is stretched far enough to stand out.
Volatility
| State | Expanded out of a squeeze |
|---|---|
| Current band width | 8.9% of price |
| Recent tightest | 5.9% (7 sessions ago, narrower than 81.0% of its history) |
| Expansion since | 1.50× |
| Band | 61.25 — 66.98 |
Takeaway Lately this share price has been swinging around inside a range roughly 9% wide, and it recently went unusually quiet — calmer than it has been 81% of the time. It has started moving again since, swinging about 1.5 times as widely as during that quiet spell. A stock that has been quiet tends to make its next move look big by comparison, simply because the recent bar was low.
Historical trends
History begins when the site started recording, not when the company listed, so a short line means a short record and nothing more.
Repair Pathway
- Nearest Trigger EMA50 reclaim +1.0% gap is improving · Broadly stable
- Trigger 2 Relative momentum rank above 0.55 +0.08 rank relative momentum leadership is not yet strong enough for the next action tier · Broadly stable
- Trigger 3 Volume confirmation above 1.2x +0.20x volume confirmation would improve confidence in the pathway · Improving
- Trigger 4 EMA20 reclaim +1.2% gap is improving · Broadly stable
- Trigger 5 MACD bullish crossover repair trigger repair engine identifies this as the nearest technical repair catalyst · Broadly stable
Who's Tradingthe flow behind the priceTop ↑
Insider activity
| Activity | No filings in the window |
|---|---|
| Buy filings | 0 |
| Sell filings | 0 |
Open-market Form 4 purchases and sales over the last 75 days, read from SEC EDGAR Form 4. Grants, option exercises, gifts and shares withheld for tax are excluded — they are compensation mechanics, not a decision to buy or sell. Reported Form 4 activity. Brown Bear tested insider cluster-buying as a return signal and rejected it as era-unstable; shown as fact, not signal.
Volume confirmation
| Volume-price trend | Below its signal line |
|---|---|
| Confirmation | Marginal |
| Event | Absorption (today) |
|---|---|
| Volume percentile | 97% |
| Range percentile | 33% |
| Close within the bar | 94% of range |
| Event level | 61.79 (held) |
Takeaway The heaviest trading has been happening on days when the price falls: when large numbers of shares change hands, the price has tended to go down rather than up. That tells you where the weight of trading has been. It does not tell you what happens next, and it is not a signal to sell. There was also a day today when a great many shares changed hands and the price barely moved — buyers took everything that was offered without the price falling, and it has held since.
Options Positioning
No binary-event flag
O: no binary-event flag. Near IV 16%, far IV 17% (ratio 0.91), implied move 2.0%.
| Implied volatility | 16% near (9d) · 17% far (128d) |
|---|---|
| Term structure | 0.91× near/far |
| Historical volatility | 19% |
| Implied vs historical | 0.84× |
| Implied move | ±2.0% by 2026-08-21 |
| Implied move vs ATR | 0.35× |
| Skew | Call Skew (0.84×) |
| Call wall | 65.00 (+3.9% away) |
| Put wall | 62.50 (-0.1% away) |
| Gamma pin | 62.50 |
Takeaway Insuring against a move in this stock costs less for the next few weeks than for the next few months, which is the normal state of affairs and suggests no particular date is worrying anyone. Options traders are positioned for a move of around 2.0% in either direction by 2026-08-21.
Chain as at 2026-08-12. This is a risk read on whether a specific event is being priced — not a directional view.
Context & Methodthe record, and how it was builtTop ↑
Relative Rotation
Repair Attempt
Rotation health 12.3/100; Severe Rotation Headwind.
| Rotation health | 12.3 |
|---|---|
| Rotation strength | 85.0 |
| Leg | Quadrant | RS-Ratio | RS-Mom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock vs sector | Lagging | 81.1 | 93.0 |
| Stock vs SPY | Lagging | 78.9 | 90.4 |
| Sector vs SPY | Lagging | 80.6 | 83.3 |
Direction of travel: North-West / early recovery
Position only. Brown Bear's RRG redesign programme is closed — five constructions, none beat an appropriate null — so this section describes where the name sits, and is not a signal.
News Headlines
- Loading headlines\u2026
Headlines are supplied by third-party feeds and are not written, ranked or interpreted by Brown Bear. They feed no score on this page.
Detailed Scoring
Positive signals
- Piotroski F-score 5/9 (+10.0)
- Gross margin quality: 92.7% (+22.0)
- FCF margin quality: 69.5% (+20.0)
- High earnings quality (accrual ratio -0.040) (+2.0)
- Accrual ratio improving (-0.04 -> -0.04) (+5.0)
- Track 1: volume confirmation 2.29x average (+7.8)
- Track 1: relative strength trend improving (+5.0)
- Track 1: relative momentum rank 0.47 (+0.2)
- Track 1: RSI recovery 32.4, 5-day change +10.9 (+8.7)
- Track 1: EMA50 support proximity 1.0% (+4.2)
- Track 1: EMA200 support proximity 1.4% (+6.0)
- Track 1: Bollinger position 0.23 (+6.1)
- Regime convergence: SUPPORT_RESISTANCE_BOUNCE confidence 81.8/100 (STRONG) (+16.4)
Negative signals
- Track 1: bearish DI spread (-6.1)
- Track 1: weak/falling ADX (18.8, falling)
- Track 1: Bearish MACD divergence
- Track 1: price below EMA20 by 1.2%
- Track 1: EMA20 slope deteriorating -1.1%
- Track 1: weak MACD line/signal structure (-5.0)
- Track 1: MACD slope deteriorating (-3.0)
- Track 1: weak VPT confirmation (-0.00)
- Track 1: price below EMA50 by 1.0%
- Track 1: EMA50 slope deteriorating -0.3%
- Below-average Altman Z-score (2.32)
- Gross margin improving by -0.2 pts (+-3.0)
Chase risk is not elevated for this name, so extension penalties are omitted from the negative signals above.